This is a 10 handed live game with three blinds (1-2-5). I have around $1200. Villain has about same.

Info i was thinking about at time of hand.
1) Villain is a loose pre-flop caller. Loves getting into big pots pre. Indicates wide range and potential spewyness.
2) I paid off villain earlier in the night on river when he hit his flush. I had a straight and was getting 3-1 on a call.
3) I've played with villain about 3 times. I have yet to see him bluff on river with what would otherwise be a substantial "value bet". This does not mean I don't believe he's capable (i do), just that when I've called him down, hes had it, and I've yet to see him turn a bluff over or get caught with his hand in the cookie jar in similar spots.
4) I have tight image.

UTG calls 5
Villain is in UTG+1 and raises to 15
Flops to HJ; calls 15
Hero in CO w QsQd; raise to $65
UTG folds; both Villain and and HJ call

Flop: 9d8d6s - Pot ($208)
Action:
Villain checks
HJ checks
Hero bets $175
Villain calls; HJ folds

Turn: 4d - Pot ($558)
Action:
Villain checks
Hero checks

River - Kh ($558)
Action:
Villain bets $300
Hero ?


Questions:
First, is my line too obvious and therefore too exploitable?

Second, should my flop bet be smaller? maybe somewhere in the $100-125 range?

Third, is river a fold?

Thanks in advance for any advice.

Why did you check the turn? Seems like an obvious bet.

At the time, I wanted to avoid pot-commitment if shoved on the turn/or called and then shoved on river and thought i'd rather take the free card since i felt I was pretty polarized. Although, now, as I type that, that logic feels dubious.

I go smaller on the flop. Or check.

Bet turn for value/protection. 300 seems sufficient. If you get shoved on, I don't think you're really 'committed.' You're probably drawing pretty thin...

River seems kinda close. Can he show up with TJo?

I'd go a bit smaller on flop. Bet turn (would never have checked). As played, call river, but only because you checked turn.

+1

As played fold on the river because you've butchered the hand on the turn.

I'm strongly in favor of folding in way behind/way ahead spots when we're in that spot because of a mistake made on a previous street.

You need to bet turn here, any flush draw but ak probably folds on turn if you bet large enough. But now you have any of his draw hands receiving a free card. He shows up with a better hand than you on this river 9 out of 10 times.

I think the river is a fold ... flop is too big and would have bet turn for sure. villain needs to be turning something into a bluff in order to make us fold out our AK's (AK's and total bricks should essentially be our range here as played) and think it's pretty unlikely.

Him peeling with JT seems like a stretch considering your sizing and you've also said he hasn't been caught bluffing. I don't really think we're gonna win this pot 25%+ of the time.

I think you have to decide on the flop whether want to play for stacks. If V will stack off on SPR ~5.5 with less than your queens, then bet flop as big as you think will keep him in, bet turn, shove river (with what will be a pretty small bet).

If you think he won't stack off, then pot control should start on the flop: bet smaller then check turn. Or perhaps bet/bet if you think he won't put you to a tough decision on the river after you've shown strength on two streets.

As played, I'd probably tank fold. But I think the difficult river decision for real money started on the flop.

Ordinarily I would c/c a River here, but with both flush and now the over-card sitting there ... and your image of V ... I think I'm folding out.

No one has mentioned PF .. you give one hell of a price at $50 into $100+ with multiple potential callers behind. I would want to go bigger here since you really want to isolate your target V. It may make your hand 'obvious' but at least you make them pay a bit more to play loose.

Getting to HU can now allow you to bet the Flop 'smaller' for pot control. This size bet scream 'I hate this board, go away'. I may also choose to check this through (ala AK, not pp) as well. A check followed by a c/c should get you a reasonable River bet to decide to call or fold.

AP ... fold, bet Turn, you have a big Diamond .. GL

If he had a FD otf he turned a flush. If he as a FD OTT it's mostly pocket pairs with one diamond which are either sets or under pairs with dominated flush draws (we have the Qd).

If v has a better hand OTR he usually had it ott. I'm not saying betting turn is bad but your reasons given are.

The hands we are ahead of ott are pair+sd mostly or TT and 77.

I'm only c/c this river if I have a read v will bluff busted draws (are the several pair + sd hands in his 15 open/call range?).

This is a c/f OTR based on reads thus far. I expect to see sets OTR a lot.

C/f should be "fold"