Quote:
Originally Posted by Mlark
AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, definitely things he 3bets pre. A5s not pure. He is not a studied player, so it isn't like he is following GTO charts. He can have any suited ace in his range at some frequency pre though. I think it is based on how he feels at the time.
Not arguing with you, just thinking along...
He may not be studied, but if he's playing 4-5 times a week, and not half an idiot, he might pick up a few GTO plays without knowing what GTO is. A5s is the new hot girl in school recently.
How often he plays was a factor in my thinking. He may be wild because he's rich, and he may not study, but that doesn't mean he's incapable of developing an intuitive sense for what constitutes good play over time.
I agree this guy probably plays according to his feels, so any AXs is probably in his range.
If this guy isn't trying to play GTO, then I think the reads, the meta game, and the tells become paramount in our analysis.
He 3B pre, c-bet the flop, check-called a reasonably large turn bet, and over-bet donked the river on a pretty wet board. That's a pretty strong line.
He should know you're looking to snap off his bluffs after the previous hand history, making it less likely he'd try to bluff you. He wouldn't want to look stupid twice.
Goading behavior is almost always a sign of a strong hand. Here it seems to play into the meta game. You embarrassed him by showing your bluff. Now he wants to embarrass you by tricking you into calling after he shows you the blocker to the nuts. He's dying to show you the winner and needle you about your bad call the rest of the night.
People who casually declare their hole cards are usually telling the truth.
Even semi-self-aware players don't want to risk giving away too much info or appear nervous when they're bluffing. If he was bluffing, he'd be more likely to be silent and still. Any movement or talking at all is usually a sign of being relaxed, unless the speech doesn't make any sense. Even then it may only be because someone is amped up on adrenaline from having a monster and lots of money in the pot.
His sudden reversal in tells is likely the result of his realization that you're not falling for his trick. I've been there, realizing I was giving too much away, and compensating by over-correcting. But it's always been when I was too comfortable with the nuts, rarely if ever the opposite, nor feigning weakness when I actually was weak.
The only curve balls here are that he's a practiced liar, he's rich, and he could be looking to get a bluff through as revenge, despite that being the last thing he should try to do. It just doesn't seem to me that this casual player is suddenly going to be a speech play and reverse tell mastermind out of nowhere.
It seems more likely he wants to hurt you by taking your money in an embarrassing way, not risk giving you more of his money and suffering more embarrassment.
Looking forward to the reveal. Hoping I don't look like the idiot for disagreeing with everyone saying we should call.
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