Game is 5/5/25, time rake only. 5 handed.

Villain is a very loose recreational player that plays 4-5 days per weak. Villain is a business owner with a very high disposable income. Bluffy, punty, binky.

Hand history: several sessions ago I showed a bluff where I raised to 3.2k after Villain donked on a and straight flush completing turn for 800 into 1,000. Villain snap folds. Hero shows him AsQh for A high with the nut flush draw and blocker. Hero also has tons of hours with villain, but this one sticks out as a relevant meta hand.

5 handed. 4.2k effective. First to act in CO raises to 65 with AhQs. Fold, villain in SB raises to 200, folds to hero, call.

Flop: 435 KsTc3c, v bets 175. Hero calls

Turn $785 KsTc3cJh, v checks, hero bets 400. I meant to go 3/4 pot but miscalculated pot. V calls.

River $1,585 KsTc3cJh8c, villain now donk leads for $2.2k. Hero tanks. Hero asks villain what he wants me to do. Villain at first looks comfortable. Villain starts to engage in conversation comfortably. Villain says he will show me one card for $100. He starts to turn over his hand, but doesn't expose it to me yet. It is evident that he wants to expose the card on the bottom which is face down, as he can expose it and hide the other card behind it.

I tell him fine I will pay you $100, but I want to see the card on the top. Villain says fine, but proceeds to show me the card on the bottom anyways which is obviously the Ac. I then tell Villain that isn't what I agreed to, I wanted to see the other card. He seems to play it off as a miscommunication. I then ask him what the other card is. He says I don't know, probably a queen though. I ask him what suit. He says I don't know. I tell him there are only 4 suits in the deck. At this point he is looking nervous. I think the speech play, him exposing the wrong card, and not having good answers prepared for what the other card is may worry him that he has given away too much information.

I also ask, if I fold, will you show. He says yes. But villain routinely lies comfortably. Villain is capable of big bluffs, but I can't recall seeing a big donk overbet bluff from villain before. They are usually with the betting lead, in position, or as a check raise. The dollar amount of the bet is not too big for villain, he has bluffed for significantly more. As a size of the pot it is obviously very big.

Hero?

really odd hand. description makes me want to call. line somewhat makes me want to call although you'd think if he needed to bluff he'd just bet the turn, and his hand if he wanted to bluff should be able to x/r (since he c/c turn and can win at sd if it goes x/x) but recs are bad and dont always have cogent thought process. tbh him being unwilling to show the other card kind of makes me want to call since the flushes he can c/c the turn with should have sdv (should rly just be Kc or Jc). i love to call though. the Queen feels neutral when we see his Ac, probably the ace is a slight negative if i had to guess and we'd never fold with a club. idk im talking myself into a call i think

Man im terrible in these spots, this sucks haha. I feel like people who talk a lot and do **** like this tend to get me to do what they wanted me to do if i think about it instead of just thinking about the hand,

Ignoring reads completely (INCLUDING ignoring the exposed card) since thats not my wheelhouse, villian either called you ott with a DRAW, or with a MADE HAND. The only real draw got there, so what kind of bluff does he even have?

So whatever, V shows Ac. What card makes sense underneath?

Club of course.

Queen would be overplaying, but maybe.

K, J, T, you really think he just rando decides to rip it ott? I dont think so.

If he has absolutely nothing but a bare Ac, ok? So he called to have a 20% chance to bluff you? Im ok with getting bluffed off it in that situation.

I think im folding even without the Ac exposed, so whatever, if showing the Ac was some kind of move, so be it,

His first set of actions seems like goading - a strong hand trying to look weak, hoping for a call. Bluffers don't act like they're "pretending" they're polarized.

The appearance of nervousness doesn't necessarily mean he's weak. He could be nervous you'll see through his ruse, find a fold, and he'll look stupid for trying to trick you into calling.

Over-bet donk lead, looks comfortable, sounds comfortable, offers to show one for $$ - all signs of real strength. Wanting to show one card, but not the other - strong. Saying he doesn't know what his other card is, but probably a queen - usually people who say what they have are telling the truth.

Not saying what suit his Q is - he wasn't expecting the question and gets flustered, because he just realized any Q is a straight, and you're not going to bluff-catch with worse.

Saying he'll show if you fold - usually a bluff, but also something people might say with value, not thinking they're reversing a tell. It could also be something a petty liar would say, while planning to muck face down when it suddenly seems like you're going to fold, so you don't know you made the correct decision.

The meta-game from the other hand would make it even less likely he's bluffing, because you'll be expecting him to try to bluff you as revenge. He wouldn't want to risk bluffing you and looking stupid when you call. He wants you to look stupid for paying him off with thick value, which is why he's goading you.

Based on your description of V and the meta-game, V probably wouldn't have folded a flush draw on the turn, had you bet 3/4 pot. He's looking for revenge, and will over-pay to get it.

Using that same logic, he'd be less likely to call the turn with just the Ac and some other card that isn't a club, unless it was a Q. So on turn, I think he has Broadway, or the flush draw.

If he was going to bluff huge with the Ac, he'd have gone for the check-raise. He wouldn't donk huge and pretend his weak.

Him desperately wanting you to see the Ac makes it a snap call for me.

Also Axcc can bomb turn, but the dry ace needs a higher spr.

What does his SB vs CO 3bet range look like? Would he 3bet AJo? AcJx is a bluff here that makes sense. AcTx as well, but that hand seems somewhat less likely from pre-flop.

Either way, I don't think he has very many combos of nut flushes here, since most of them would want to double-barrel turn. Basically looking at AKcc AQcc and AJcc, with the first two being somewhat likely to bet turn themselves and/or check-raise.

I think his range pre may have AJo and ATo sometimes, AQo always, JJ+ always, AJs+, KJs+, KQo sometimes, and occasional nonsense hands. He 3bet 72 earlier. I think he could definitely have lower AcXc. But he calls wide and a lot of that he will call. He isn't foldinf A2s pre, but mainly calling. He can be erratic though, he isn't consistent with his preflop strategy.

On a broadway board like this what could villain be turning into a bluff? I think both your range and his range is uncapped so it is dangerous for him to turn something into a bluff on this river, and he has some SD value with the turn x/c. I just can't think of a lot of single club AcX hands here that x/c the turn. AK/AA would play this way on the turn, but I don't think he'd turn those into a bluff. AcJx/AcTx probably don't x/c the turn. I also think small Ac hands (Ac4c for example) just bet the turn, so I am eliminating those. Basically the only flushes he can have here I think are AcKc, AcJc, and his bluffs being AA/AK/AJ?. I also don't know what to make of his overbet, as my guess is there's no balance to it. I think him showing the Ac leans more towards a call for me. I'd call given the scenario.

I desperately want to call given dynamics, speech, and the Ac show. It's so in-game, though, it's hard to tell from my computer.

Setting aside the bluffiness of his bet-check-bet line, why can't he have AQcc here? Or AKcc? Or AJcc? Or A5cc? He did 3B pre, after all.

If you're not giving him any QXs pre, I think his showing you the Ac makes nore sense, and pushes me more towards a fold.

If he has AQcc, and shows you the Qc, you might not believe he's doing this with KQ, QQ, or worse QX, making AQ more likely. Showing you the Ac looks like an attempt to seem polarized to the nuts or nothing.

There aren't many AXo combos in the range you're giving him that make a lot of sense here. If he was going to bluff with any AcXo combo, he might continue to barrel the turn. It seems doubtful he'd slow down with AKo, AJo, ATo or A3o on the turn, then speed up again on the river.

Almost seems like he's doing a modified stop and go on the turn.

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AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, definitely things he 3bets pre. A5s not pure. He is not a studied player, so it isn't like he is following GTO charts. He can have any suited ace in his range at some frequency pre though. I think it is based on how he feels at the time.

Not arguing with you, just thinking along...

He may not be studied, but if he's playing 4-5 times a week, and not half an idiot, he might pick up a few GTO plays without knowing what GTO is. A5s is the new hot girl in school recently.

How often he plays was a factor in my thinking. He may be wild because he's rich, and he may not study, but that doesn't mean he's incapable of developing an intuitive sense for what constitutes good play over time.

I agree this guy probably plays according to his feels, so any AXs is probably in his range.

If this guy isn't trying to play GTO, then I think the reads, the meta game, and the tells become paramount in our analysis.

He 3B pre, c-bet the flop, check-called a reasonably large turn bet, and over-bet donked the river on a pretty wet board. That's a pretty strong line.

He should know you're looking to snap off his bluffs after the previous hand history, making it less likely he'd try to bluff you. He wouldn't want to look stupid twice.

Goading behavior is almost always a sign of a strong hand. Here it seems to play into the meta game. You embarrassed him by showing your bluff. Now he wants to embarrass you by tricking you into calling after he shows you the blocker to the nuts. He's dying to show you the winner and needle you about your bad call the rest of the night.

People who casually declare their hole cards are usually telling the truth.

Even semi-self-aware players don't want to risk giving away too much info or appear nervous when they're bluffing. If he was bluffing, he'd be more likely to be silent and still. Any movement or talking at all is usually a sign of being relaxed, unless the speech doesn't make any sense. Even then it may only be because someone is amped up on adrenaline from having a monster and lots of money in the pot.

His sudden reversal in tells is likely the result of his realization that you're not falling for his trick. I've been there, realizing I was giving too much away, and compensating by over-correcting. But it's always been when I was too comfortable with the nuts, rarely if ever the opposite, nor feigning weakness when I actually was weak.

The only curve balls here are that he's a practiced liar, he's rich, and he could be looking to get a bluff through as revenge, despite that being the last thing he should try to do. It just doesn't seem to me that this casual player is suddenly going to be a speech play and reverse tell mastermind out of nowhere.

It seems more likely he wants to hurt you by taking your money in an embarrassing way, not risk giving you more of his money and suffering more embarrassment.

Looking forward to the reveal. Hoping I don't look like the idiot for disagreeing with everyone saying we should call.



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I don't think his range actually matters. LOL. We know he has the Ac. What matters is the read we get from him at the table.

Eh, I think it's pretty important to have an idea of how much offsuit Ax he can have here. If he only has AA, AK, and AQ for offsuit Ax, it's pretty hard to be bluffing here! Do guys like this turn overpairs or TPTK into a bluff in this line?

Maybe they do. I feel like players like this get off on making crazy and unexpected plays, which would include bluffing with a hand that really doesn't need to bluff.

Mlark, do you think this villain calls turn w AcJx?

The only offsuit combos he should have here after calling turn are AcQx, AcKx, and maybe AcJx.

He conceivably has every suited Ac combo.

We are not getting good enough pot odds based on how many suited Ac combos he has compared to bluff combos after he calls turn in my opinion. He would have to call turn w one of the few unsuited Ac combos he has, then also decide that he can overbet bluff w the blocker. I think it more likely he just has it, and speech play plus showing the Ac leads me even more to thinking he just has it and wants you to think he could be bluffing.

Fold.

Based on your playing history with him, do you think he would c/c the turn with AQ against your half pot bet?

Years ago I read something, I think by a former FBI profiler, that stuck with me. He might claim his other card to be a Q because he thinks that's what you have. If that's true we don't know when he came to that conclusion though. After you didn't make a quick decision on his overbet or only after you still didn't act upon seeing the ace?

From OP: Villain is a very loose recreational player that plays 4-5 days per weak. Villain is a business owner with a very high disposable income. Bluffy, punty, binky.

He can have anything with his Ac. He could have had a pair with it or he could have called turn just to bluff, but this is a read fold/call. He sounds like the type to easily bluff here.

I've done and seen others do the opposite - ask V if he has the hand we actually have, as if we're scared of that hand, as a way to encourage opponents to continue bluffing by trying to rep what we're actually holding.

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Even without cards shown or table talk, I'm not sure we can only call with flushes and AxQc here. Esp. as V could be doing a weird merged play with AcQx so it's not like I want to call KKc on river.
Yes, there's a live thing were we play so few hands it feels like we need to get them all 100% correct ... but you still have to just call and lose sometimes.
Yes, we have some flushes but we also have worse hands like JJ/TT/KQ/AsJs (some QQ? and maybe other turn bluffs?).

AcQc I would assume is _heavily_ discounted because nuts + nut redraw raises turn near 100% by everybody.

Would also discount AcKc because of the flop, although maybe he bet small because he's not scared of anything and wanted you to call or raise? Feels more like "this is a 3bet board, so I can bet any2 for 33% and get folds".


Would guess it's:
AcQx that didn't want to raise turn because no actual redraw but can represent one on the river.
AcKx
AcJx
AcXx that hates money and sees a bluffing chance.
AcKc/AcJc/Ac5c ... gg.

...honestly so few value combos. vs. possible bluff ones unless he's 3betting A8s enough you should probably be 4betting AQo.


Adding the reads in:
Prev. hand shows he likes to bluff with flush blockers when they hit ... so don't fold.
Showing Ac would lean towards bluff ... could still be the nuts sometimes, but people generally prefer not to show. The fake out I'll show you the top card would lean this heavily towards a bluff IMO.


Sorry, if you called and he had the nuts.

If you're playing 5/5/25 you're a better player than me, but from spending years playing fish at 1/2 I can tell you that when they have an FD checking turn and donking river is a super common line. Check raising river would often be better, but they are so scared of missing value they just donk instead.

Not sure if this fish is like the 1/2 fish. He could be completely different.

No expert on speech play, but I feel like he has like A9s and doesn't want to show the bottom card because once he shows the 9c you will know his other card is the Ac.

Is flop a standard call? Genuine question ...

On the river, in a vacuum, I tend to give credit to those types of donk bets, but it is very much player dependent.

The Ac is the most reasonable card to show because it belongs equally to both value and bluff range. So, the only info that we really have is that V is aware of the bluffing potential in this spot.

As I said, in a vacuum, a lean towards folding, but this spot is all about live reads and vibes, imo.

Let's get some results!

GTO wizard:

Preflop sizes are lol, obviously ... and it doesn't have the weird 3 blind structure.

But even so running with 200bb:

Pre:
CO open, SB 3bet, CO call (folds ~11% AQo pre)

Flop:
SB then bets 33% or 20% with basically entire range. Chose 33%.
CO basically never folds AQo. Pure call with the two combos that don't have blockers for either flush, raises 15-50% with the ones that do.

Turn:
SB checks 60% of the time (including all AcJc and a lot AcKc, the rest bet 20% pot, much more betting with Ac5c)
CO bets 75% or 125% of pot with AQo ... chose 75%.

River:
SB checks 100%
CO likes to bet 85% pot with Ac and shove 160% pot with Qc, checks all other AQo.

I dont think flop call is “standard” at all, in that I think most people fold it, but the correct move is generally gonna be to call (maybe you can raise but i wouldnt, id almost never fold)