This hand occurred at Foxwoods on Saturday afternoon. Hero sat down at the table within the past 10 minutes. Hero is a mid-20s white guy with no noticeable characteristics (to my knowledge).

Villain is a middle-aged fat white guy who doubled up the hand before with AA, after raising pre, just flatting a 3-bet and calling a shove on the flop. That's all I know about him.

Preflop ($3): Hero ($310) is dealt 88

Three limpers, Villain (covers Hero) raises to $12 in CO, Hero calls OTB, blinds fold, three limpers all call.

Flop ($58): 983

Three limpers check, Villain checks, Hero bets $40, limpers fold, Villain quickly calls.

Turn ($138): K

Villain checks, Hero thinks for a few seconds and bets $95, Villain quickly calls again.

River ($328): 4

Villain checks, Hero ???

Notes: As Hero is sitting still thinking about what to do, he notices Villain staring at him with a frustrated "please don't bet because if you do I will have to call" look.

Hero's remaining stack is $163.

Yeah, I shove it in here. Quick calls like that are so often draws, and your read means maybe his draw included Ks, or something. (or maybe it means nothing)

easiest shove ever. hs snap call and staredown combined with his line makes this TT JJ QQ AA AsKx AxKs and busted draw almost always. occasionally u run into 99 KK nut flush but not often.
checking is really bad and losing value

And you're getting the puppy dog look.... Arrrr in.

Sucks when he has 99.

Bet a lot -AI

Yep. Well played, now jam it in.

5 handed to the flop, I think he rarely calls without a flush (possibly a set), and I think he always calls with a flush. This is because he has no idea how you play; all he knows is you're firing at a flop that had 3 spades.

I don't like the principal of it, but I check back.

Shove. None of his Ax, KxSs made it to the river to just ck. KdKh,99, only hands that might, just might take this line (poorly) that beat you and its value all day at this depth.

Hand is well played; now shove.

At least two different ways to understand your relative hand strength.

The easiest way to understand your relative hand strength is to list all the hands that you'd call a raise, and then barrel a monotone flop and turn for value. Then look where your current hand fits on the list.

The other way is to list the hands that you think call a shove.

Shove is best. If you are beat it's a real cooler. Stack size is so small relative to the pot that it's easy to get called by worse.

With remaining stack being 1/2 PSB, unlikely he's trapping with a river check. Don't know why he wouldn't raise top set or a flush to protect his equity.

If we factor in the fact that you could easily have air in this spot, it's an easy shove.

Turn sizing nicely sets up a 1/2 PSB shove here on the river. He mostly has AK or KQ with a spade and is not folding. Nice hand sir.

Because he has the nuts would be one reason.

^

Anyone who is even tempted to check here is probably missing a lot of value bets in their games tbh. Sure you're beat sometimes. Still a relatively easy and profitable shove.

Non-sequiturs don't count.

...what?

I suppose you just don't understand why the preceding statement grants the conclusion.

And I don't really care to explain it to you, so you win man.

I agree that anything better is leading the river every time. ship it!

I wouldn't say every time. He could possibly feel uncomfortable with top set or a low flush, legitimately thinking he's beat but knowing he's not folding. He could be checking these hands that beat us, but it's even less likely he's checking the river trying to trap us with the nuts when stack to pot ratio is so small that we're unlikely to bluff and checking behind the majority of hands.

I got the opposite impression. It seems to me hero is almost never checking back for a showdown, as played.

Shove.

grunch: I like shoving, V could have AK or AA with the As. Is V capable of raising from the CO with 98s? He definitely could also have a low flush that doesn't want to call (but will). Meh. I'm fine with both, don't think you're making a huge mistake with either choice.

shove.

I'd think you're good here like better than 80% when you're called, maybe less if he can lay down QQ, JJ. It would be thinner if you weren't against the PFR, but usually still a shove even then.

You're in a very juicy poker game if you can raise jacks pre-flop, check-call three streets on this run-out, and make money.

I think if the OP was in a game as soft as yours he wouldn't need to create a thread.