UTG is in his thirties male. I've only been at the table for an hour half and so far he's opened maybe once. He's played some pots IP as the caller of an aggressive tilted tag where he's won a stack or two. As of being the preflop raiser this is maybe his first or second that I've seen. Initial read is that he's a tag not much else to go off of.

UTG raises to 20 (600 eff)
Hero calls in bb AcQc
Flop (40) Jc8c4s ck UTG bets 2 hero calls.
Turn (80) Td ck UTG bets 75
Ck raise or just call?

I'd fold right here. We need at least 1:3 OTT, but we're getting 1:2.

The flop move would be c/r huge. C/C that flop is the biggest leak. Donking this flop would be better. I think you need to run some equity calculations to have this ready at the table, but vs a pair of jacks or similar, we're ~52% OTF. Slightly behind KK+, but there's FE vs pairs.

The large turn bet suggests either improvement, or fear of a straight. Say hitting TP helps just half the time, that's 2 outs, + 9 flush, and the 3 remaining K's for a straight... that's ~28%. I'd feel bad about inflating the pot w/ TP OTR, and V would feel the same if scare cards come, since our hand looks sort of transparent. There aren't that many implied odds, so folding turn is best.

OH... as far as c/r the turn, I'm not sure if we have enough fold equity here after he bets pot. That's why the check/raise is so much more powerful OTF, when the equity of our hand as well as FE are greater.

Ck-R flop, bet turn or at least ck-r turn now over a relatively small bet. You'd like him to fold sometimes and perhaps he does given history, but you have this hand, 88,44, JT (ott) and some gutters to balance it out, but you do well making this pot bigger and realizing your equity in the best way possible. Ck-c, ck-c, ck-f (or bet) is a relatively low EV line when you flop this well at 100ish bb.

I typically like a semibluff turn vs a medium strength / possible Ahi range ott vs a Tag who I know will double barrel much of his range because a turn raise looks so strong.

but here I mostly agree with Quantum Surfer. Had v bet a weaker looking bet I'd get behind a c/r here. I Don't expect him to be bombing the T turn with much that's folding to our c/r though. I mean maybe he's trying to barrel us off a capped range with AK but the T isn't a great card for that.

JJ KK AJs TT all in his range here.

If we 3x c/r here with 20-24% equity when called we would need around 40-45% FE. I don't think he has enough combos he is folding. If his range was TT+ 100% of his AK and AJs it's barely more than break even and I sort of feel he's skewed toward value hands that aren't folding and some that may 3!.

We aren't getting direct odds and can't be certain we have I/o adequate to just call so I actually think folding this pretty hand is probably correct here.

Edit:/ I actually think villains range is strong enough here that a lot of villains will pay us off when we hit our hand.

I think the c/r the call and fold are quite close.

????????????????????? This is a double gutter equity is not 20-24% COMMON, We are fukkin 30% against a set. There actually is no hand in the deck we are less than 25% against let alone his whole range. This could still be a call but folding is absurd.

Yeah don't fold guys lol

You're right, I missed that 9. I'd lean C > c/r > F on this turn.

Yep.... I completely missed that we were double gutted. Sorry bout that.

c/r flop, continue barreling turn if called. As played, just call turn. You are repping pretty much only Q9 with a turn c/r as most sets won't flat on such a wet flop.

Agree with check/raise flop. As played, call, although I don't mind a check/raise on the turn. That's a scary board for QQ, KK and AA -- taking it down with A high would be fine, and we have a lot of outs if he decides to go for it (fewer, of course, if he shows up with KK).

If we 3x the turn bet and assumed 32% equity when called we need 26% fold equity to break even. So does v fold 26% of his range?

With that sizing we would need 28% equity vs a turn shove to call off which we will have so I guess if you thought villain has 30%ish of combos he's folding to a 225-250 raise you could profitably raise / Gii.

If his range was just TT+ he's got 6 combos sets, 6 ea QQ+ for a total of 24. If he folds QQ only that's 25% so he needs some AK or he needs to fold KK AA once in a while to get the fold equity a little higher. Probably reasonable.

So a semibluff / call off is likely profitable. The question is whether calling to hit and trying to get paid is more +EV.