800 effective

Main Vilain (sb) in the hand is very laggy borderline fishy but still very aware, seen him run some big bluffs but def not an idiot.

My image is probably decent tag

Utg limps

Utg2 fish (800) makes it 15

Im cutoff and make it 55 with AdKh

Main vilain sb cold calls
Utg 2 calls

Flop (170) 5c6s2d

Checks to me i x back

Turn (170) 5c6s2d Ac

Sb leads 140 after a small tank
Utg2 folds
I call

River (450) 5c6s2d Ac7s

He flicks in 500 quickly, H ?

AA- 1. 66-3. 55- 3. 22 -3. A5s - 3. 56s - 2 34s, A2s - poker gods dont do it. 67cc, 89cc - Please no poker gods.

Few questions I have.

Like what percent of these combos do you think he cold calls from the sb?

I cant find one bluff that makes sense, but Im probably missing several? Are his bluffs the always make sense GTO variety or sometimes the he showed weakness this is a great time to fire some exploitative air variety? And would he ever go this thin with AQ?

He sized well if he likes to run his bluffs with air and I think its a really tough spot depending on how many of those combos you think he cold calls with. If his bluffs always make sense it seems like a comfortable fold.

idk we probably lose but how could u fold? also am i right in seeing that he bet 90% of his stack?

Yeah he flicked in a 500$ chip and had like 100$ behind

Probably leaning fold if in playing my A game. Kinda have to put that in replies lol.

He has to have enough AQ/AJ/AT in range to compensate for the times he has a flopped set. He can also have AK in range and freeroll with this line.


Depending on how you construct his preflop range, I think you can make a profitable play on the river. If his fishy tendencies are to bluff too much when someone shows weakness and over value his hand then we have a clear call.


If I'm SB and I cc AQs, I don't think I bet 140 when leading from the SB. Utg2 usually checks his entire range to hero on the flop so we can't be certain he's capped. This turn A hits hero more than it hits SB. I'm not fist pumping money in with AQ. But I would be doing that with a flopped set.

After hero calls turn, and SB jams river, I'm having a hard time finding enough bluffs in this spot when I think of what the general 2-5 population range would look like. Will they blast off with KQcc? Doubt it, and I doubt if its in cc range pre in the first place. Are they choosing this sizing with AQ-ATs, doubt it and I don't think enough AJ/AT is in range to begin with.

My experience says this is an exploitable fold. We have to call turn but I'm not convinced river is a must call.


It's a tough spot because we don't arrive to this river with too many better hands. In theory, we begin to cap our range on the flop when we check back. The ace is better for our range because we check back a lot of AK-AT on the flop, but, SB still has the nuttier range with flopped sets and as a result he gets to blast off.


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His bluffs dont always make sense, the hand right before he tripled barreled vs some fish on T64 64 and got called down by top pair. I guess that makes his current cold calling range wider because of the tilt factor?

Anyways he called the 3bet rather quickly without giving a thought about 4betting so i guess we can give him 22-TT, suited connectors until KQ, Axs until AJs, AJo AQo, i think JJ+ AQs+ AK+ , he would at least think about 4betting and most likely do it.

The more i think about it , the more i think its a fold like you said. Alot of hands beat me and im kinda repping what I have and he is still blasting river. Kinda funny that i would snap fold AQ but go in the tank with AK even though its the same thing in this spot.

Assuming you CC with 22, 55, 66, 77, 89(?) , and 3bet tight range like JJ/QQ+, AK , AQ(?), maybe suited broadway but I doubt u 3bet it vs UTG. Giving that, I think if you fold AK here you seem to only call with AA if you managed to x-back them on the flop. I know that in live cash games we should lean towards exploitative play, like making overfolds etc. but against a LAG capable of big bluffs with the top of your range here I would call still

Ya I would not rule out a younger LAG chasing his losses cold calling wide preflop. 34s might be a stretch but mabe A2s?

It is a rare villain who will triple barrel the hand before get picked off and then turn another hand into a bluff the next hand when an ace hits falling squarely in your wheelhouse and you calling a PSB on the turn. You are saying yes I have an Ace. Probably a good one. Maybe even two.

Your ranging sounds pretty solid on him. I think we can give him more AQ than before but unless he thinks you are a tight thinking player it doesnt make a ton of sense for him to try to blast you off an ace or value bet one on the river unless as pointed out he also has AK if he does not ever 4b that vs a tight player.

This is an interesting hand and Im curious to hear what others think

yeah i mean he's doing something he's not supposed to be doing really and none of us have ever played with him so you either need to make an explo read or take a look at what your range is. he doesn't really sound like the guy to fold everything to and you're going to be hard pressed to make solver fold AK no c here. line is scary but its implausible to me he's going to coldcall the sb with hands that smash this board. he might, but im going to need to see it at least when i have this hand.

its tough to find bluffs for sure but at the same time its really hard to find value hands

I agree with others that this is probably a "solver" call and an exploit/population fold here

This is probably a cry-call for me. I’m gonna need to see it. Yes we have what we are repping, but the big weakness of LAGs is self-leveling. He could think he is folding us off QQ/JJ or that we have busted clubs. Or he could have a weaker ace and think he is good.

Ugh, how wide does he cold call?

Club draws:

KQ, KJ, KT, QJ, QT, JT.

Value very hard to say without knowing his cold call range. If it is any PP, basically 9 combos of sets. If he has any suited ace, 5 combos of aces up. 9c8c is 1 combo and 43s is 4 combos. 65s is 2 combos. Just how loose is he?

He could have 6 combos if AK which we chop with, and 8 combos of AQ we beat.

When he bluffed, did he use similar sizing on turn and river? If he bluffed smaller, that could be a sizing tell.

Call if you think he is not that wide preflop cold calling or if you can put him on AQ here and if he does not have a sizing tell where this is not a bluff/AQ. Otherwise I would fold.

He did bet 2/3 pot when he bluffed but that was also on T64 64 in a single raised pot HU and i’ve seen him bluff for bigger sizing in previous sessions. So yes the sizing was bigger than i expected but not totally out of the ordinary , however the insta flick of the 500$ chip looked really strong (yes i know lolz live reads, im a fish)

But like i told Larry, the more i think about it the more i think it is a fold, since he 4bets AK, wont overvalue Aq- because he isn’t a total idiot either and he is still quite wide pre, so all sets, A5s, A2s, 56s 89cc, 67cc are in his range, while only 7 combos of missed flush draws.

I wouldn't discount AK just because he didn't 4bet, but I still wouldn't call hoping for a chop. AQ wouldn't really do this, and after cold calling a 3bet from the SB he has mostly PP's there so he has all the sets (he checked to the raiser otf, then when no one bet he lead out 140 into 170 OOP vs 2 players with an ace ott but I would just fold the river. He's probably hoping and praying you have AK.

just so i understand, everyone's logic for folding nearly our entire range is entirely "tilted very borderline fishy LAG who's stuck would have to be stupid to bluff here".

like i get OP most likely lost the hand from tone and the fact the hand got posted in the first place but hero folding AK on 652 A 7 to someone who cold called a 3b from the SB with MP still left to act is wild

it very well may be a spot you literally never win when you call but i don't see nearly enough evidence presented to suggest that. people talking about population reads like this is a spot that comes up often and you can derive any sort of reasonable conclusions from are lol. if he was the opener and someone cold called and he over called i could be alot more convinced that we see things like 22 or 55 or even 43ss in his range. then he needs to decide to lead those extremely discounted value combos on the turn as opposed to check them (most people check range or at least value range on this turn)

Firstly, I think you could take a little stab at the flop. You have OK equity and I wouldn't really expect to get check raised. It's a 3 bet pot, not a BB defend. This flop shouldn't be all that great for either V. Maybe someone had TT. OK, fine. So they call. You can then decide if you want to check the turn or go for the big bluff.

My first thought is just pay it off. I'll say, AP it looks like you have exactly a big ace. You checked the flop, suggesting a whiff, even if you personally would check AA sometimes. The the worst card for V comes on the turn. He bets and you call.

If he has half a clue, he should put you on a big ace. His bluff is unnecessarily big if he is trying to get you off a QQ that slowplayed and called once. So he is either value betting, or trying to bluff you off AK, which is generally not a good idea and not that many people do it.

Clubs KQ, KJ, KT, QJ, QT, JT, T9, 87 (8)

Open enders 87 (2 non club)

Value: suited aces that are aces up (5), 65 (2), 7c6c, sets (9), 9c8c, possibly 43s (4). That's 18 -22 value, 10 bluffs. Odds needed to call are 34.5%, which would make you indifferent at 10 bluffs and 19 value combos.

Also, this is really wide pre. He is really cold calling 3bets with 22 and A2s? What about K9s, Q9s, J9s, T8s, 97s, 86s? Where does he draw the line? If he is that wide, then it becomes a call.

I think there is some merit to the live reads as well, but not 100% reliable.

To be unexploitable we have to call at least sometimes, but if you range him on too many value hands and not enough bluffs, then you can make an exploitative fold. You should have A5s and AA here, maybe occasional suited connectors that hit 2 pair or straights, so this shouldn't be your best hand, but it's one of your better ones. You unblock clubs and block aces up.

Also, I don't know that it's 100% given villain never had AK here. You know him better obviously, but my experience, villains as described like to be tricky. Flatting AK is tricky. AK to him is very likely the nuts bar AA and A5s which he blocks and may bet the flop (he may not think you have A5s pre). And people will call down with AQ or worse, so value betting AK makes sense.

A problem with calling turn and folding river vs this type of villain is that you are basically saying you are folding an ace on the river, and this villain may pick up on that and try to exploit you in the future. That's not a bad argument for calling or randomizing. Ultimately you have to make that decision.

Let's say your range is 3 combos AA, 3 combos A5s, 12 combos AK, 12 combos AQ, 3 combos AJs, 3 combos ATs, KQcc,KJcc, KTcc, QJcc, JTcc. Some of these hands might bet flop, but let's just say this our range for simplicity. We have to call about 21.6 combos to be unexploitable.

AA and A5s are mandatory. AK no club probably mandatory as well 3 combos, bringing us to 15 combos. Then you have 3 combos of AK with Kc, 9 combos AQ no club which are somewhere in the fold/mix call area. To reach MDF.

Solver would probably do something different, but solver is also going to have different bluffs while live players will be more weighted towards flush draws and open enders as bluffs.

When it's this close and villain does seem like the type of player who will get way out of line and try to bully us if we don't call here, the more I think of it, the more I talk myself into a call here. Take note of his hand and if the $500 snap bet meant anything.

That was pretty much my thought process in game Mlark, AK no club has to be a call MDF wise.

I think this spot is still massively underbluffed from V’s perspective.

The line where villains go for big bets later when the flop gets checked around occurs often, but your experience may vary. In my experience, that line is value-heavy and almost rarely a bluff in a three-way pot. I don't like playing guessing games where SB is polarizing and we're on the river with a condensed range playing the A, K, Q game.

MDF in so many of these solver spots is so much wider than reality.

my advice was to literally not play guessing games and just play your range lol.

the issue with folding in these spots is the implication is you're smarter than a computer and you're going to outperform theory. likely you make some good folds in spots and end up losing overall in strategy and getting run over in lots of other ones. if you're a random small / mid stakes dude its unlikely you are capable of doing that. with all that being said there's a decent interview with lucky chewy on mechanics of poker and he was talking about solvers and he said he thinks humans outperform machines in 0% nodes, so do with that what you will.

"it very well may be a spot you literally never win when you call but i don't see nearly enough evidence presented to suggest that"
.... guessing game??


Our hand went from marginal/air to a strong marginal hand. I don't see any issue folding this spot. I'm not smarter than a computer. However, a computer is acting based on SB playing theoretically sound. That's not the case with human beings.

I've maintained the same stance in my two replies above which is "this is a value-heavy line" based on action. I'm not calling and hoping he has AQ or a random bluff. Overfolding rivers to aggression (specifically this line in particular) in live format will often outperform a computer.

i dont see how you are interpreting my comment as me playing a guessing game. if anything you're playing a guessing game re his range by deciding he's never bluffing

look. there's alot of spots to overfold, but this doesn't look like one of them by the villain description to me. the bigger the pot and the more of an overfold you are making, the more evidence you need to do it imo at least. i think calling here w 2p+ and AK no d is a good enough heuristic here where we can't get exploited. once you start folding the no d combos you're going to start treading into soul reading territory very quickly, especially if you have a turn raising range vs this bet. the computer is literally just looking at the bet size and prioritizing blockers based on value bets while making sure you don't over fold to his bet size.

i guess my question is why is this a value heavy line? do you have a database of hands with people cold calling the sb and betting twice on this board texture to suggest that? to me, its an exotic enough situation where im not going to level myself into folding too much simply because "hed have to be an idiot to bluff here" when we just heard he bluffed in dumb spot vs fish and bluffs too much in general.

Last reply, I'm not trying to derail the thread since we seem to differ in opinion.

- Saying "it very well may be a spot you literally never win when you call but i don't see nearly enough evidence presented to suggest that".... if it's a spot you may literally never win, but you want to call in this case because of lack of concrete evidence vs this particular villain.... how is that not a guessing game? So which of these two things you're saying holds more value, "literally never winning this hand based on villain's line " or "we don't have enough concrete evidence that hero is losing in this exact spot." I see hands like this posted every day. There is a plethora of evidence available saying we're losing this spot way more often than we're winning.... river bluffs alone are uncommon. Polarizing turn and river are even more uncommon lines. I think we have plenty of evidence if you consider what 2-5 population is doing.
- value heavy does not equal never bluffing
- I don't know what 2p+ hands you arrive at the river. A hand like A5 will be c-betting flop.
- It's value-heavy because 1) it's a mw pot. Players play more honestly in mw pots especially oop. 2) The sb is described as "aware" so based on the description, the turn Ax is perceived to be good for hero's range. If we work with the read that he's aware but he's polarizing into two opponents and not slowing down on the river, and this is a low-stakes live game in which river bluffs occur infrequently, as an exploit, I'm folding because my analysis leads me to believe this is more often value as opposed to a bluff or valuing cutting himself with AQ/AJ. That's not a guess. I'm arriving at a decision point logically.

I'm betting that in the long run this is more often a better hand than AK vs a worst-value hand or a pure bluff. But, all of this is just my opinion. GL!

i get you dont want to go back and forth, but this entire paragraph is just you guessing at his strategy and making gigantic deviations based on that