(effectively the bottom FH. doubt V gets here with 22, but he's sticky, so its in the realm of possibility)


1/3 1k cap match stack

3k effective

Villain: Nothing major worth noting. Haven't played this deep with him before. He gets kinda sticky, but that's not too relevant at the end. (feel free to give opinions on river decision with different player profiles).

Hero image is crushing this game/room long term. But doesn't just play nuts. Shows big bluffs occasionally.



Hero: UTG straddle $10 with 6d6h

3 limps

V: limps in CO

BTN limps

SB: folds

Hero: checks

Pot $60

Flop Ac 9h 6c

Hero: check

Checks to Villain

Villain bets $40

Folds

Hero: raises to $160

Folds

V: calls

Heads Up

Pot: $380

Turn: Ac9h6c 2s

Hero: bets $275

V: calls

Pot: $930

River: Ac9h6c2s 9d

Hero: bets $700

Villain: takes about 10sec.....all in for $2550 ish

Pot: $4130

Hero: 1850 ish to call


Hero: ???

You can easily have A9 yourself so it would be donkicide for him to bluff. You’re at the bottom of your range, fold.

Also 96 could be possible given it's a limped pot. But yeah bottom of his range.

You can probably bet bigger ott, as he should have lots of 2p and FD, but almost no set.
Given how the hand developed in later streets, I doubt it would have made any difference in this specific case anyway.

River, it's a crying fold.

Ya, multiway to flop, but HU turn is a spot I need to look into more. Not a node in game tree I'm familiar with.

I defaulted to 75% pot bet because of this.



Need to look into 100%, 150% and 200% bets here and see what makes sense.

Another thing to look at here is your river bet size. What are you targeting by betting $700? On the turn Villain can’t have much that beats you but can be drawing and can have 2 pair (or a sticky 1 pair). On the river, because the 9 is not a club, Villain will be hard pressed to call a bet this size with Ax, but all his 2 pair has either passed you or is counterfeited. And he will no longer call with his flush draws. You’re basically hoping Villain has exactly 9cXc to think about calling. I think you either bet smaller (so that Ax can call more easily, 9x will think about raising, and you can call a raise more easily) or check to induce if you think Villain could bluff busted clubs. But probably the former.

I like the river bomb, he can definitely have a 9cc that won’t fold and if he was stubborn with an ace this will seem like a good river to bluff catch because hero’s boat combos have been reduced. If we had 78cc we would want to bet big.

But our perceived range should contain a ton of 9cXc ourselves since we just checked the straddle. That makes it very hard for Villian to call a big bet with Ax.

Disgusting spot. So he could have 6 combos of A9, 1 combo of 99, 1 combo of 96, 1 combo of 9c2c. If he was value owning himself, he could have 9xXx, which I guess there are up to 8 combos of, but I wouldn't bank on it. Even if there is only a 33% chance he value owns himself with one of those combos, I don't think that's enough combos to five you odds to call here. 9cXc probably just calls if anything. Not sure if he is creative/studied enough to turn A6 into a bluff here, I am guessing probably not. He would have 1 combo of A6s, maybe the 2 offsuit combos. Or he could be bluffing straight up missed clubs.

If he is bluffing A6 here, then he probably wouldn't value own himself with Kc9c, I don't think he would even raise 92 or 96. Still, I think there are not quite enough combos of bluffs for him here.

I am guessing you are going to be very unbalanced yourself here too, which is probably fine. But just for the hell of it, let's assume your are balanced. Even if you can have some 9cXc for value and some amount of bluffs, from an MDF standpoint I think 66 could be a mix because you will have 99, a9, 96. If we give you 3 combos of 9cXc, then you have 19 value combos. And let's pretend you have 5.7 combos of bluffs since that would be the correct number of bluffs to have given the pot odds you give your opponent. Your MDF is about 56%, which is right between 13 and 24 combos, which is exactly where 1 combo of 66 would be. So your combo would probably be a pure fold, because you could have 2 combos with the 6s that at least blocks As6s and 9s6s, and even that would mix fold. So if you're really worried about being exploited, I think you are fine.

But I think pure folding all combos of 66 is fine in practice.

thats an excellent post

Gross. I'm going to assume he is a complete unknown. Looking back to preflop, even though V limped in with the straddle on, he is still uncapped (AA looking to LRR, A9, 69, 9cXc, all club draws).

Your line c/r, bet, bet looks so strong and polar it would be bonkers to bluff with a missed draw. So that would leave value or bluffing with blockers. How often do we see players bluff shoving with blockers in a 1/3 game? We also don't see players over value trips given the action. Also, we bet meaty the whole way: 4X c/r, 70%+, 75%+ and still get river raised. I would cry fold here.

I posted a similar hand a while back where bottom set turned into bottom FH and I folded to a river raise. In your hand, the evidence is even more compelling for a fold.

Did you show after folding? If you did and you play here often, you may have to start calling down a little lighter...

Ya, being large multiway.....pretty much not a big deal playing exploitable. For many reasons.


I'm likely going to be either very unbalanced and almost only value hands.....or I'm going to be heavily weighted towards value if I'm even trying to remotely balance.

Good points.


V should have K9s, Q9s, J9s, T9s, 98s, 97s of clubs so he has 6 combos of 9x that should be good with calling a 3/4 pot bet with missed front door draws.



We have a super narrow range here for V. So it doesn't take many combos to make value betting profitable. It would be a disaster for him to be able to check behind with a 9.


There's only 5 combos of A9, 2 combos of 96, and 1 combo of 99.

So, we have 6 combos of hands we beat and 8 that we don't that would continue here. Seems like plenty to justify a value bet



Obviously if we think V can bluff here, we can consider a check to induce, but IMO, he checks back way too many 9x here.


And if we check and he decides to rip it as a shove, that might be even tougher spot than we ended up in.

So we have a "live test" of Zeebo's Theorem, which iirc states that no LNLH player can fold a full house.

It's worth emphasizing that V bet flop. With BTN behind him, I think V flopped some equity and has very few pure floats. Calling the xr I think compresses V to hands with FD and maybe SD and the rare AA/99/A6s. I don't think he can call xr with 9x non-club.

That said, I prefer a more polar line on turn brick as H suggests in his comment to Niemand. Just better to continue a polar line I think. H and V have very few Ax and both H and V are FD/SD heavy.

River: I cannot fold getting over 2-1 when I'm this under-repped. I think sticky V is capable of leveling himself into raising because all the draws have bricked and H is not xr flop with 9x.

While this is 1/3 NL, this is obviously out of my wheelhouse with $3K effective (I honestly can't recall the last time I've seen a $3K stack in my game, and I'm fairly positive I've never seen two of them at the table at the same time, let alone play a hand against each other).

I wouldn't straddle.

I'd probably just bet the flop. Fine with the check/raise as played.

Fine with the turn.

I guess the big river bet is to appear polarized and repping all of the busted draws? Personally, I probably do the opposite and go way smaller, hoping that he is the one on the draw and will spazz, or simply manage to pay off with an Ax (although admittedly I have a Super Nit image to deal with). But again, already this hand is out of my room's wheelhouse (as the river bet itself was our previous maximum bet, although I do believe it has since been increased recently, not that that matters as it never happens).

Again, facing the raise is just not in my room's wheelhouse. I'm fairly certain the largest pot I've ever witnessed was over a decade ago when two people managed to get in $1.7K each, so not remotely close to this hand. So really room dependent. In my room, you'd only be up against AA/A9/99, so pretty trivial fold. But you know how your room plays. How often do $3K stacks go in? What do people have when that happens?

Gcompletelyoutofmy1/3NLwheelhouse,wowyourgameplaysbigG

That is just a sick spot. It's a sigh fold for me. Not sure there are many players I would call in this spot.

Also, if I straddle and wake up w/ 66 to a bunch of limpers, I'm often raising unless there are players behind (like GG) waiting to LRR, etc. However, I rarely straddle UTG, so it's moot (only do it if the table is doing it).

Some questions to think about. Did V match the stack or did he build it? If he built it, how? Is it a mandatory straddle making this a 1/3/10 game?


But only given what we have from OP--Blech. After you throw up in your mouth, I'm not sure its a trivial fold.
I guess what makes you not sleep at night more, calling getting shown A9 or folding getting shown Kc9c and V saying good fold like he held the nuts.

I'm not saying to check. I'm saying to bet smaller.

Before we bet the river, 9x is a pretty small part of Villain's range, but Ax is a far bigger one. If we make a bet that blows out Ax but we think will keep 9x in, that may not be as profitable as making a smaller bet that keeps Ax in. This is a spot where it is possible that our EV increases by widening Villain's calling range with a smaller bet.

Another advantage of a smaller bet is that if Villain makes a non-all-in raise, we have an easier time calling it and hoping he raised with 9x.

EDIT: Also, if you are counting more combos that beat you than combos that you beat, that does NOT justify a value bet!

Snapfold river vs 99%+ of guys I've ever faced. Nobody bluffs this spot at 1/3 because your range is probably 100% fh and few people fold a fh in these games. Many people have a hard time letting go of 98 on 77783, how about 66 here?

You played the rest of the hand quite poorly imo. I'd raise pre especially at this depth, but that's close. When you xr and bet turn you are repping 2p+, so you should go bigger, 200 otf and something like 130% on the turn. That way shoving river is possible. Ofc it probably wouldn't benefit you in this exact hand but it's the correct play imo.

He has A9. Unless he’s a sicko

That last sentence is bad logic.......


If you aren't betting thin value ranges, and large bets at times, you are going to leave a ton of money on table long term.

Result:

Hero tank folds.


V tables Ah 8d.......



Hero pukes in his mouth.

Wow sick. I thought that hand folds flop.

Lol what a sick guy. Unfortunate but take a note and nh.

Wow, that is absolutely sick. Not a lot of people are turning top pair into a bluff here. Definitely put him on your capable regs list.

Seems like it is really easy for him to be overbluffing here if he does this with A8, so I might keep that in the back if my mind. Maybe he puts you on possibly 9cXc. Does he actually give you enough credit to fold 66 and 22?

One thing I will note you say he is really sticky, but that you didn't think that was relevant. It is relevant, because people who are really sticky sometimes respond to arriving to the river with weak holdings by bluffing as they think it is the only way they can win. But I think it is damn near impossible to think the guy would be capable of this without seeing him do it.

I wouldn't make the assumption that he is always making sick bluffs though. You clearly have some history with him and he hasn't made that impression on you yet, so he may have just decided it was time to make a move.