River decision- thin value spot?
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 562
1/2 NL. $340 effective.
Villain is a mid 20's guy on the nitty side but not a "good nit". Usually over values RIO type hands and definitely sees MUB. Not a total spew bucket, not a total station but just generally a below average predictable player.
We are in the BB with QhJh and after 2 limpers we check our option and see a flop of:
Ah Kd 5h
We bet $7 and both players call. The turn brings the 4h and we now lead out $25 into the $28 pot. Folds to V who mins to $50 and we call. River is 8h.
Are we going for thin value here? Is this a clear bet/fold or check/call?
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 37,602
I think it's a pretty standard bet/fold here.
He can have a lot of flushes in his range that he can call with, but since we have the Q and J a lot of them have to be pretty low. The only SC's he has in his range are T9 and 76. I don't either of them will raise the river, but they certainly might check behind if we check seeing as how now they lose to AxKh, AxQh type hands. Pretty sure he's only raising with Kh here.
This would be interesting with the naked J hearts though. Like AxJh.
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 1,279
I'd bet $50 and fold to a raise.
This type of villain is obviously never raising the river with a T-high flush. So we can comfortably fold when he raises.
This guy isn't calling a $100 bet with a small flush, so no reason to bet big. Also, by betting small, we don't lose as much when he raises and we fold.
