Quote:
Originally Posted by zuneit
"Aces are almost never folded before the flop, so we know they cannot be the most profitable hand."
Quote:
Originally Posted by blankoblanco
I'm not saying I think aces are the most profitable hand necessarily, but isn't this logic by Angelo flawed? I don't see how you can make this assumption based solely on the fact that everybody knows to play AA to the flop. AA creates large pots and the postflop decisions become important.
If your opponents are losing too much with their AA when you have better (they are), and if you're able to know when not to overplay yours while also making good value bets other opponents would miss, it seems to me the reciprocal value could be very high.
I agree & disagree. When I was putting Tommy's quote on AA in perspective, I was envisioning two players of similar expertise. This weekend I watched recreational players call down with AA on boards that I would have released long ago. Even paying an outrageous price otr. Not just the board, but the way the betting went down & the opponents clearly dictated a fold with the AA. Unskilled players have blinders on & you can win much more than they can no matter what two cards you compare Ev rates with.
So, if that unskilled player who won't release AA when the action/board dictates, won't you win even more when you compare your +Ev rate with QJs vs. his?
Now, say we relocate Garick to Florida. Give him a month to become accustomed to the games/players there & then force him to play 2/5 NL at the same table with squid face until they've both had AA 200 times while the other paid to see the flop. How much difference do you think there will be in their net Ev? How much difference do you think their loses would be when they are the one not holding AA?
Maybe one is better than the other. Well, it's impractical to believe their skill level is perfectly equal, however, I'm sure that under the same circumstances with me vs. an unskilled player I described, that my Ev rate would be much higher than that between Garick & squid face.
Now think of the unskilled player who pays $4 more in the big blind in a 1/2 NL game with K
7
with 2 players having called the raise & one limper left to call. If that player is always willing to pay $4 more with that hand & I am always willing to fold it, will I ever be able to make more more with my AA vs. his AA over what I am going to save folding my K7s pre-flop?
I can just imagine his loses when he catches his flush ott & another spade comes on the river. Or ever worse, when he's up against the nut flush & just can't believe it's possible. Or the flop comes J77 & he thinks he's the 'golden boy.' He is either going to bet too much otf & force everyone out, or, have someone catch up and lose big, because he won't believe it. And lose much more than what he wins when he has the best hand otr because he's OOP.
1/2NL is full of players like this. It's also full of players who whine & moan & bitch & complain when these players win.........because they don't have the bankroll to withstand the variance.......so, they go on tilt.
Last night there was this Asian, about 27 years old on my right. The only place I'd allow him to be.....
. The Asian puts one of those 'unskilled players' all-in ott when he hits his flush. The unskilled player was runnin' like gold & couldn't miss. He'd tapped into the Asian's stack twice already.
The unskilled player called a little over $100 to see the river card with nuttin' but the A
. So, he had 7 outs - ~5.29:1 dog [going with 44 unseen cards] & he's getting about 2.5:1 on his money.....he catches the spade otr.
The Asian says nothing more than "Wow....pause.........nice hand." Not "Nice catch" as in NICE CATCH U FREAKIN' FISH" but just "Nice hand, sir" kinda' tone. Proceeds to pull more money out his pocket.
That is a sign of a skilled player.
A sign of an extremely skilled player at a 1/2NL table. Which is why you'll always find him on my right.
He wanted the guy to call. The
"wow" was only an expression of how long this fish has been runnin' lucky. That Asian Reg is never more than 3 seats max to my right