Quote:
Originally Posted by golddog
I'm ok with that. Let it out, you'll feel better. I can take it.
Last week I did the following calculation. I have played 2000 hours since the start of 2019. That's around 60,000 hands.
Since you get aces 0.45% of the time, I should have gotten them 270 times during that time span. I checked my online database and I discovered that I get it in all in either 5-10% of the time. I think 5%.
Mind you, live is less aggro than online, so you probably get it it less live than online.
So over the past 5 years, I ought to have gotten all in with AA at most 13-14 times.
And yet when I try to remember the times I gotten it in, I can remember something like 7 times. 6 times I lost, 1 time I won.
I try to be modest here because there might be some selection bias going on, i.e. i remember the bad beats more than the times I won. But even so, best case scenario, I am winning 60% of the time I get it in.
And of course there's this gem of a hand I posted about back then:
Quote:
Hero is UTG+1 8 handed I think, raises 25.
CO calls, Villain 3bets to 150 from the B.
Hero tanks for a bit, maybe less than I thought, because I didn't have to think much, 4bets to 425, CO folds.
Villain takes somewhere between 5 and 10 seconds to ship it.
Hero snap calls obviously thinking that with Villain snap shoving he probably has the other AA and this is a big waste of time.
Flop comes KJx. Doesn't look good. Sure enough Villain turns KK.
As Villain tables hand he opens his hands and reveals a humongous stack.
Count reveals Villain's stack to be $2190.
Hero is left with $5 as a parting gift from the Gods of Trolling and Schadenfreude.
Then hero has to listen to chipper villain explain to the guy next to him that "maybe he had QQ or JJ or AK. I know how he plays, so".
Pretty proud that I took it as a champ barely showing any emotion other than whining here obv.
Villain is different from player pool; relatively tight, but overrates big pairs and top pairs. I have relatively aggro image, so he can be forgiven for thinking I have a wider range than i actually have in this spot.
All in all, I can say that I am very bitter, because I am running like dogshit and it's just not the Aces.