SABR,

You seem to have a really deep knowledge of the game. In fact, it seems to be much deeper than that of many of the regs that I play against.

Why aren't you playing bigger stakes?

I feel that Commerce 5/5 and even Commerce 5/10 must have a much smaller winrate than Gardens bounty.

I don't really know what higher stakes game are around at other casinos, but there must be something for you where you could cash in on high winrates.

I was under the impression that defending optimally requires assumptions about an opponent's range. That MDF is calculated only from the part of our range that can bluff-catch. But to know that we need to know what our opponent's bluffs look like, right?

To me, that suggests the process of finding GTO is not an isolated one where we are only concerned with our own holdings. Instead, we search for optimality for our position and our opponent's position and then balance one range against the other until we reach an equilibrium.

How do we rationally determine a bluffing range for an irrational player? Do we always assume a wide range and proceed accordingly?

In Sabr's example, if we're not always potting that flop, what is the process for determining when we should bet smaller?

Admittedly, I'm out of my depth here.

I recently posted my ~15 year / 6000 hours results (with lol 1000 hour sample size breakdowns) in my Well thread below. (as G says, only over $100K in winnings, not a milly, but I appreciate the misread V!)

No one is more surprised at my more recent results than me. As I stated earlier in my thread, I would have gladly snap accepted 5 bbs/hr moving forward after the disastrous 2017 as well as the rake doubling, but somehow I've surpassed that. Somehow shipped ~8 bbs/hr over the last 1K hours. Somehow shipping ~12 bbs/hr this year thru a quarter of my lol yearly hours. Although for sure lol @ sample sizes.

Not sure if SABR caught my anecdote from a page or two back, where I 3bet to 4.3x for 1/3rd of my stack, accidentally tell the table I have AA... and get called. This is a game I should be bluffing more in?

But, yes, of course there are lots of aware players in the pool too, who are highly unlikely to pay me off. I try my best not to sit with many of them. Or maybe not play my hand as face up against them when I do.

I am for sure not playing Street poker, and I'm probably leaving a lotta money on the table by not doing so... *if* I was capable of implementing it (which I'm probably not). I've settled into a nice groove with my style (Church poker?) and as a purely rec player I'm ok with it.

ETA: FWIW, I've always been a sky is falling type of dood regarding where our game is going. But I've finally convinced myself that there will simply be enough suckers (either long term ones or a cast that rotates in and out) to support the game. Always has been in the ~19 years I've been playing in this casino and I've finally convinced myself that ain't gonna change. The only worry is the inevitable increase in rake.

GcluelessChurchpokernoobG

sabr, to be clear, i'm not advocating to never bluff

i very specifically said I first need to know if a guy is willing to fold two pair on a wet board - that's a big if at those stakes

but i standby that very few players at low stakes who have a pocket pair and the board flops broadway are thinking "there's very few hands my opponent has here that doesn't beat my 77 so I should fold"

we don't need to test that theory by bombing 3 streets - and losing a big pot to a hero call - we should assume that's the case until proven otherwise and check back that hand after they decide "i think he's bluffing i got a pair I'm going with it" and call a flop cbet and we get our value when instead of KQ on AJx board we have AJ or JJ or AK/AQ and then we bomb three streets of value vs his 77

I had a $300K downswing. Technically still in it as I'm not back to my peak yet. Hopefully by next year I will be out of it.

I had life leaks and didn't manage my money well (spent recklessly when I had more money). I also have an expensive car hobby, which I am not willing to give up.

This thread sorely needs GG bluffing HHs

I'm def not hating. I admire your discipline and results.

Yes absolutely, just not against this player obv.

In general most players, even winners, underbluff most spots.
Yeah, see there you go. Bluff more here.

More rake really is better!

Honestly, my home casino only spreads 1/3, there’s about 20-25 true regs in the pool and a number of weekend guys and then a bunch of droolers. And getting a hand heads up pre flop is rare. Last week we had 4 consecutive family pots where UTG opened for a raise and EVERYONE called. I play with bingo loving flop monkeys.

For the number of hands I play in a session, I think the short answer is no. I still get plenty of action. I may execute one true squeeze every other session or so but it’s all very situational and villain dependent.

I’m winning 25BB/hr this year. LOL sample size for sure.

An interesting anomaly: as of last night, AA has held for me sixteen straight times.

I don't think I'm overbetting or otherwise forcing players out of pots. Getting action, just on a weird streak.

I don't play much any more, so I'd guess this is over the course of a year or so. Happened to notice after four or five wins, and have been tracking since.

Apropos of nothing, I've just found it interesting.

SABR,

Not to beat up a dead horse. But couldn't you win more money by doing a staking deal with someone who trusts you, so you could play the higher stakes games?

Commerce 5/5 has pretty insane drop compared to the average size of the pots...

I don't play at Commerce. I think $5/5 is still beatable for $100K a year with how bad players are.

California living sounds rough on _only_ $100k/year. I assume that is supplemented with other rev streams.

Depends where in Cali.

Sacramento, Fresno, Manteca, Stockton, Temecula ok.

LA, San Diego, SF and rest of Bay it's below poverty line.

SABR,

I know regs at Gardens winning more than 250k/year. You are surely better than them. Except maybe this Chinese pro named David.

David spells SABR if you write it backwards

Like a month ago, I had a recruiter reach out to me for a role out of Culver City. I snap turned it down because the comp was already a 30k pay cut(for a principal role too), their equity(not public so effectively useless) was a joke, and they didn't offer remote. They did offer relocation, but houses half the size of my current home were well over $1mm in that area.

I will get there once I'm better rolled.

Yeah it's generally not going to make sense to move around here for any start up or small company if you're already principal level or higher.

Culver City has a lot of entertainment industry related stuff like Apple and Netflix so unless you're trying to break in specifically into that area there's not much incentive unless you're a new grad or early career.

Just went to an open house here in Dallas and new build houses around 3k sqft are around $850k.

That could get you a rundown 1k sqft condo built 20yrs ago around where I live.

ATsai?

That's what I was thinking. If so, my money is on sabr.

this is sabr?

how would you ever count something like that?

I don't know who ATsai is.

I believe you guys that SABR42 might be better than the top pros at Gardens and definitely way way better than the regs below them. But that's even more reason to get a stake to play bigger games.

If SABR42 has a stronger skillset than them, he could be winning $300k+ ($400k+?) in a year. Not sure how a reasonable staking agreement would work, 50% of those numbers would be higher than $100k/year.