Interesting 2/5 hand yesterday within my first orbit after a table change. I was following a bad player who just left my other table. I had already won a pot at showdown and raised 3 hands pre, so players who don't know me could have seen me as a bit of a lag.

I had never played with V before this session. While both waiting for a seat at 2/5, we played 1/2 together. I saw him play very aggressively and strangely. In an hour at 1/2, I saw him backraise twice, cold call a 3bet maybe twice and call a 4 bet shove of his 3-bet with t3s (and win lol). The t3s was the only hand of his I saw.

Hero = $1300
Button = $500
Villan = $1050

As the cards are dealt, the guy to my left exposes the 7d and the dealer gives him a new card. Folds to Hero in HJ with QdQh and I raised to $20. This is my standard open with no limpers. Button calls, Villian in SB calls, BB folds.

Flop ($59): 4h8d9h

V checks, I bet $45. Was looking to grab value from fd's/sd's and possibly even some 9's or 8's. I wouldn't be terribly upset if they both folded. Unlikely that I'm folding if raised but I would reevaluate. Button folds, V calls.

Turn ($149): 2d

V checks, I bet $125. Hard to think the 2 helps him unless he picked up a diamond fd. I have him ranged around 9x, 8x, hearts, maybe some jt or 76, although the exposed card blocks some of those. I suspect he raises me on the flop with two pair or a set but those could be possible too.

River ($399): Jd

V shoves for $850ish. FML. What would he do if he hit his hand? It was hard to think he'd just shove but he was crazy at 1/2 earlier so who knows. I'd lead maybe $300 if I hit in his spot. ?d?d, t7 or qt seemed most likely unless he played a weird jj. The exposed card and my hand block a ton of the straight and flush combos. I count out my chips to call and eventually decide to...

Fold. Villain sounds like he calls way too loose, but doesn't get aggressive loosely. I would expect to see all kinds of **** here, including A7dd, 4xdd, 9xdd, two high diamonds, maybe JJ

these bets from unknowns, unless you've seen him bluff 2xpsb otr before, are good made hands. Big bets from recs usually = Big hand, until you've proven otherwise. There are not too many fish that will turn their hand into a bluff like that.

he is probably hoping you have aces or kings, or even a set.

This villain sounds a bit crazy, but what could he possibly be shoving on the river that you beat? He'd either x/c or make a small blocking bet with just a 9 or something like JT. A huge overbet is either the nuts or a bluff. Most players won't launch a huge bluff like that. A bluff needs to work for him over 2/3 the time here. And against a PFR who fired the flop and the turn, he has to figure you have a hand, most likely TP or an overpair, so he's got to know hands like JT or 97 are no good. Maybe he's bluffing once in a blue moon with a missed draw like 65hh, but to call you need him bluffing over 40% of the time.

I think you have to fold, unless you have a read this guy has maniacal tendencies or is so bad he thinks a hand like AJ is worth shoving for value despite a lot of draws getting there. The line x/c, x/c, shove looks very strong. I think he has at least a set, though with so many draws getting there it would be very weirdly played. QT for the straight plus flushes like A3dd, A5dd, 76dd, 56dd, 75dd, 87dd, KTdd, ATdd, etc. are most likely IMO.

What is the max you guys are willing to call in this river spot?

Remember, guys, 7d is gone (unless dealer shuffled it back in instead of using as burn card?).

Totally read dependent. Seriously, it's impossible to give advice on plays like this w/o being at the table, seeing the V and how he act/reacts, etc. Sometimes I'd call; sometimes I'd fold. Without great reads, I'd just fold and move on.

The 7d was turned into the burn card.

Fold.

Most likely hands for villain would be 9Td and A9d. Calls top pair for value, turns a draw to continue against barrel, hits the draw and decides to punish the upper end of your range with an overbet.

Yes, villain may be a little crazy, but what really calls 2 streets and then wants to bluff instead of show down?

I suggest checking flop or turn. It is hard to get 3 streets of pure value out of one pair hands especially as coordinated as this board texture. So before the action begins on the flop I think its worth considering how many streets of value can you extract? Also its also worth considering betting small 2-3 streets to induce bluff raises or to keep it easier to pay him off if he does hit. So maybe check flop bet turn, river. Or bet flop and river if river isn't too scary. You don't make a majority of your money long-term bluff catching here. You make most of your money value betting against worst hands. If he is bluffing, hats off to him for the courage to jam on a scary board. It will catch up to him eventually if he is bluffing and you avoid heroing too often. Hope this helps!

I would fold as well. Is this a villain who will just shove rivers until he gets looked up? Weird strategy. Thought OP played hand well fwiw.

Hmm .. 400 in the pot? Probably 300. 400 could be tough for me.

I fold this without an extremely strong read. But I'd snap a bet of up to 300. And probably call $400 after chewing on it. Guy can have T7s, J9, and the flush draws described above. Not a fun spot

Sorry, missed that. Well the 7d and Qd remove a lot of diamond combos. There would normally be 45 flush combos (and a loose fish is likely to play almost all of them) and now there are 29, 26 of which are somewhat plausible. So about 35% of his flush combos are gone. In particular this removes some of the more plausible ones.

If this guy is super loose he could be calling you on the flop with any hand with slight potential. An overcard + BDFD like K6dd might be good enough for him. And then it's definitely good enough on the turn. But let's assume he's not quite that much of a station and needs at least a pair, an Ace, a draw, or two overcards to call on the flop. He calls the turn with his strong hands and if his weaker hands improve but folds hands like 64cc and 33. Might keep hands like 55 or AJo but the turn bet was fairly large so I'm assuming he'll call the turn bet with just TP+ and his better draws. He could have a set or two pair but it would be unusual to play so passively on a wet board so I 'm discounting these combos some. I think he has TT+ very rarely, except possibly he's doing some idiotic slowplay of AA or KK.

Board: 8d9h4h2dJd

His range OTR before the shove would be something like these 200 combos (about 20% of hands): AdAh,AdAs,KdKh,QsQc,JsJc,TsTc,9s9c,8s8c,4s4c,A5s,A 3s,Q9s+,J9s+,T7s,92s+,53s,AdKd,AhKh,KhQh,AdJd,AhJh ,KdJd,KhJh,AdTd,AhTh,KdTd,KhTh,Ad9d,Ah9h,Kd9d,Kh9h ,Td9d,Th9h,Ah8h,Kh8h,Qh8h,Jh8h,Th8h,Ah7h,Kh7h,Qh7h ,Jh7h,8h7h,Ad6d,Ah6h,Kh6h,Qh6h,Jh6h,Td6d,Th6h,8h6h ,7h6h,Kh5h,Qh5h,Jh5h,Td5d,Th5h,8h5h,7h5h,6d5d,6h5h ,Ad4d,Ah4h,Kd4d,Kh4h,Qh4h,Td4d,Th4h,8h4h,7h4h,6d4d ,6h4h,5d4d,5h4h,Kd3d,Kh3h,Qh3h,Jh3h,Td3d,Th3h,8h3h ,7h3h,6d3d,6h3h,4d3d,4h3h,Ah2h,Kh2h,Qh2h,Jh2h,Th2h ,8h2h,7h2h,6h2h,5h2h,4h2h,3h2h,A9o,K9o,Q9o+,J9o+,T 9o,97o,Ad8h,Ad8s,Ad8c,Ah8s,Ah8c,As8c,Ac8s,Ad5c,Ah5 c,As5c,Ad3c,Ah3c,As3c,Ts7d,Ts7h,Tc7d,Tc7h,Tc7s,9d8 h,9d8s,9d8c,9c8h,9c8s,5c3d,5c3h,5c3s

We have 64.75% equity against this range, mostly due to random offsuit 9s and missed flush and straight draws. Note I removed some combos for weighting purposes, like I think he plays a set like this maybe 1/3 the time so he gets just one of each set combo.

Once he shoves the river, I think virtually all the one pair hands disappear. Most of the two pair as well, except some stronger ones like J8. I think he turns 4s and 2s into bluffs if he keeps them, and Js, 9s, and 8s would check hoping for a showdown. So we're left with a very polarized range of 2p+, flushes, straights, and busted draws.

These are 110 combos he could have (some combos removed for weighting purposes):

AsAc,KdKh,JsJc,9s9c,8s8c,4s4c,A5s,A3s,QTs,J9s,T7s, 98s,53s,AdKd,AhKh,KhQh,AdTd,AhTh,KdTd,KhTh,Ad9d,Ah 9h,Kd9d,Kh9h,Td9d,Th9h,Qh8h,Jh8h,Ah7h,Kh7h,Qh7h,Ad 6d,Ah6h,Kh6h,Qh6h,Td6d,Th6h,9d6d,9h6h,7h6h,Kh5h,Qh 5h,Td5d,Th5h,9d5d,9h5h,7h5h,6d5d,6h5h,Ad4d,Ah4h,Kd 4d,Kh4h,Qh4h,Jh4h,Td4d,Th4h,9d4d,8h4h,7h4h,6d4d,6h 4h,5d4d,5h4h,Kd3d,Kh3h,Qh3h,Td3d,Th3h,9d3d,9h3h,7h 3h,6d3d,6h3h,4d3d,4h3h,Ah2h,Kh2h,Qh2h,Jh2h,Th2h,9d 2d,9h2h,7h2h,6h2h,5h2h,4h2h,3h2h,QTo,J9o,Ad5c,Ah5c ,As5c,Ad3c,Ah3c,As3c,Jh8c,Js8c,Jc8h,Jc8s,Ts7d,Ts7h ,Tc7d,Tc7h,Tc7s,9d8h,9d8s,9d8c,9c8h,9c8s,5c3d,5c3h ,5c3s


Even if he bluffs all the missed draws we are way behind. We are good 38.18% against this range. And that assumes he bluffs ALL his missed draws, which he certainly doesn't. We need to be good 40.58% before rake to justify a call, and we're at best 38.18% against a polarized range like this.

Can't do it. Even if this guy is weird and plays AJ and KJ like this we're 50/50. He'd have to be pushing weak top pairs, 9s, and/or bluffing a TON for us to call this huge overbet.

What size bet we should call is an interesting question. Without doing any math, I'm folding to any overbet. He's not likely to overbet hands he wants to get to showdown like 9s and Js. I suspect we can call somewhere below 400, would guess 200-300, but I haven't done the math.

And why is $300 not tough for you?

In game I probably call $300 but I don't have a good reason for why.

I ended up folding. I couldn't justify bluff catching without any info on a player. Thanks for the replies. Sucks that he showed 7c6c but I still feel good about the fold. He busted, rebought and busted again within the next hour. Haha

Thoughts on V's play? Maniacs get max value on their made hands because they're constantly putting in big bets/pressure on their opponents. Can it possibly be a winning strategy?

It would be, but I'd call it because I'm calling $300 to win $700 ... so I'm a little better than 2-1 with a hand that prob splits villain's range. This is assuming the villain isn't a nit, of course.