Hi guys I played an interesting hand at a 2/5 NL table at the Venetian in Las Vegas and would like some feedback on the way I approached the hand.

Starting stacks:

Hero: $600
Villain: $800

UTG limps. Hero in MP opens to $25 holding Q Q Villain in MP2 calls, Hi Jack, CO, BTN, and UTG all call.

The flop comes: J T 2 $157 in pot

It gets checked around to me so I bet $100. Villain in MP2 3 bets to $240. Everyone else folds. Hero calls.

The turn brings an: 8 $637 in pot

Hero checks. Villain bets $380. Hero???

Villain has been playing fairly loose but not getting too out of line. I have been involved in previous pots with him and he has played fairly straight forward poker. I don't think villain is raising here with a set given board texture so the only hand I see him doing this with is JT for two pair. I also think that villain would flat my flop raise if he had a hand like Q9 to try and hit his straight. Would you guys just stack off on the turn with an overpair in this spot?

Thanks for the feedback guys!!!!

On this flop, when V raises with 5 players to get through, and after the PFR c-bet a reasonable amount, he pretty much always has 2P+. I'd say that his range here is pretty much exclusively JT and sets. This is even more true when you say that he hasn't been getting out of line. Additionally, even if V was spewy enough to bluff raise this flop, we block the vast majority of his bluffs (KQ, Q9, AQ). As such it's a fold to the flop raise here.

Additionally, I think it's a mistake to think V isn't raising sets on this flop because most Vs can see there are a lot of OESD possibilities and they will also be expecting you to stack-off with an overpair here since that's what most live players do (which they shouldn't). We also shouldn't discount JJ/TT from his range since a lot of live players will just call an open with those hands.

Once we make it to the turn, I don't really think that his range has changed at all from the flop, and as such it's still a fold. That said, if we're going to be folding turn, we should be folding to the flop raise in the first place.

Finally, on a more general note, it seems like you fail to plan out hands in advance. When we bet, we should already be planning on what to do when raised, not only on that street but on future streets. In this specific hand, as soon as we bet flop we should know which sets of actions lead us to fold/call/GII. Against almost any set of players this flop is a bet/fold, and if for some reason you decide a bet/call is best on the flop then you need to realise you're almost always going to be facing a shove on the turn (which we are), and as such plan for that too.

You have to stove this against a reasonable range.
V can easily have any of the following: AJ, JT, JJ, TT, 22, as well as T9 (raise flop w draw, hit and continue).
Against that range, you're in bad shape. Calling, folding or raising depend a lot on whether how likely he is to spaz with AJ here and how heavily you can weight that versus his other possibilities because that's among the only reasonable hands you can beat.
Folding on the flop depends a lot on my read of V, but you're behind his range so unless you have a read that tilts this from fold to call, lay it down on the flop, def on the turn.
Your only read on V is "fairly loose but doesn't get out of line." That pretty accurately describes someone who might play JT for a preflop raise and now looking to stack you.

Can't call against potential ranges. Continue at your own peril...

Calling the flop is a huge mistake.

Overpairs suck ass live in multiway pot. With this many caller you should mentally check out and give up very easily postflop. This is even more true when V raises a JT flop with a tons of players left to act.

Don't understand why calling flop, getting 3.5:1 on your money, against a fairly loose player is a huge mistake.

^ Are you implying checking/giving up on the flop?

Three comments/ questions:

Why do you think V never raises a set here? I think V can.

Would V have 3 bet pre with tt/JJ?

Have you seen V bluff or even semi bluff?

When you call you're calling under the assumption V has a straight draw a good % of the time.

Personally I think his sizing suggests he has a good hand in a vacuum which scares me. He wants a call on the flop from your aa-QQ/aj

Also, I think your read is he has two pair plus, which means you should have folded flop according to your own read. If he doesn't raise q9 here...you can't call flop without a read he plays AJ or some other top pair type hand very badly.

You leveled yourself with the "he wouldn't raise a set" thing. V are going to see that straight draw board and raise with TT.

It doesnt matter what odds were getting, we have 2 outs and there is still 2 streets of betting to come.

It's a huge mistake because this is a very easy spot to lay down an overpair, if you don't lay it down in this hand you probably never do.

There are some villains who I'm never folding to in this spot but they are huge whales who can show up with J7o and are very very rare in this days and age.

Got to fold turn for sure, flop probably fold too