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QQ, LP heads-up >200BB deep, is V's speech a tell? QQ, LP heads-up >200BB deep, is V's speech a tell?

12-15-2013 , 10:20 AM
This is a hand I played recently, the results of which I thought were fairly straightforward....but upon further analysis....I'd like feedback from this forum. Thanks in advance.

Live $2/$5 NL. 10-handed.
Hero (~$1300): an unknown compared to the other regs who are chatting with each other quite a bit. Recently won a big pot with 99/full house vs someone's (alleged) missed draw. For those opponents who care, my image is probably TAG-solid.
V (covers Hero): Asian, male, 30s. Talks a lot like LAG who likes action, but this seems more of a show. Preflop limp-calls light, but his open raises seem to represent medium-strong or better hands. Likes to see a lot of flops regardless of who raised, regardless of position. Deceptive with his mix of value betting and slowplaying. Have not seen him show a bluff. We've played together for a little over an hour.

UTG+1 calls. MP (read and stack irrelevant, knows V from previous sessions so they chat quite a bit) raises to $10. Folded to Hero in CO, with QQ. Hero 3-bets to $50. V says to table "now that's a man's kind of raise". All folded to V, who 4-bets to $150. MP tank folds.
This is the first time this session he is limp-reraising. I'm ranging him very narrow. I am not committed, but in position and want to see a flop this deep.

As I am calling, V says "do you ever run it twice?" Honestly this threw me off. I hesitated, then he said "tell me before we see the flop [otherwise we just run it once]". I tell him I usually only run it once. What's your feedback here? Are you always running twice when offered?

Flop: 7 2 2
V bets $250. Hero? Is his speech a tell or a reverse tell? How much do we care about what he said?

Last edited by filimaica; 12-15-2013 at 10:22 AM. Reason: bla bla bla
QQ, LP heads-up >200BB deep, is V's speech a tell? Quote
12-15-2013 , 10:52 AM
Giving V a range of JJ+, AK Hero's QQ has 43% equity. Probably fold pre unless you believe he can l/rr with worse than that.

Basically calling to set mine pre, and with effective stacks where they are, it's not going to be profitable against this range.
QQ, LP heads-up >200BB deep, is V's speech a tell? Quote
12-15-2013 , 10:54 AM
As a general rule I never engage villains who are used to it or any good at talking during hands. IMO it is best to just listen. In this case does his showboat talking mean a big hand? My inclination from the small amount of information provided - he is goading you into thinking he is making some kind of play at you. He is making a mild attempt to tell you he does not want to play a big pot?

Preflop why is MP irrelevant? Does he make little raises like this often? If you are expecting V to call then is your intent to play a 3-handed pot when MP feels priced into calling? What if he 4-bets?

If you sized your bet for V to call/play straightforward if he misses then it is now time to bail. You can't represent anything on the flop other than exactly what you have QQ/JJ/TT.
QQ, LP heads-up >200BB deep, is V's speech a tell? Quote
12-15-2013 , 11:02 AM
Probably folding QQ to limp raise until I've seen them do it a few times with less than KK+. Speech makes it even more so.

As played calling flop and evaluating turn play.

Last edited by spikeraw22; 12-15-2013 at 11:19 AM. Reason: F my phone!
QQ, LP heads-up >200BB deep, is V's speech a tell? Quote
12-15-2013 , 11:17 AM
Clearly, villain is attempting to goad you into putting all of your money into the pot. He has aces.
QQ, LP heads-up >200BB deep, is V's speech a tell? Quote
12-15-2013 , 11:22 AM
I would never continue vs limp/raise with less then KK+. Weakest hands you'll see is QQ vs most Villains.
QQ, LP heads-up >200BB deep, is V's speech a tell? Quote
12-15-2013 , 11:36 AM
Thanks for the feedback thus far.

We are >200BB deep and in position with QQ. And a preflop fold is that obvious? Well I'm glad I posted here, lol.

Quote:
Basically calling to set mine pre, and with effective stacks where they are, it's not going to be profitable against this range.
So here's my next question - if we did want to set mine with QQ here, what effective stacks are we looking for to make a preflop call profitable? How did you come up with this figure? Is your ideal effective stacks range dependent on your opponent?
QQ, LP heads-up >200BB deep, is V's speech a tell? Quote
12-15-2013 , 11:46 AM
Unfortunately fold pre.

Limp/raise is almost never less than KK. Especially since you haven't seen him do this yet.

I never bother with listening to speeches. They go either way, forget trying to decipher it's meaning, I focus on the cards/bets.
QQ, LP heads-up >200BB deep, is V's speech a tell? Quote
12-15-2013 , 11:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by filimaica
if we did want to set mine with QQ here, what effective stacks are we looking for to make a preflop call profitable? How did you come up with this figure? Is your ideal effective stacks range dependent on your opponent?
When you call the $100 to set mine you might like $2000 or more behind - to cover the times you hit a set and still lose + the times you hit a set and don't win the full stack. Your call in this hand could be considered thin thinking long term.
QQ, LP heads-up >200BB deep, is V's speech a tell? Quote
12-15-2013 , 11:52 AM
A "rule" I have seen and use is this. Versus looser V's we want to have 15x stacks and versus tighter V's we want 20x stacks. So you have described this V to be more on the loose side, his raise is 100$ more, so $100x15=$1500. So V would have to have an additional $1500 behind after his raises...obv, hero would also need $1500+.

Anyone do it differently?
QQ, LP heads-up >200BB deep, is V's speech a tell? Quote
12-15-2013 , 11:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by filimaica
Thanks for the feedback thus far.

We are >200BB deep and in position with QQ. And a preflop fold is that obvious? Well I'm glad I posted here, lol.


So here's my next question - if we did want to set mine with QQ here, what effective stacks are we looking for to make a preflop call profitable? How did you come up with this figure? Is your ideal effective stacks range dependent on your opponent?
Please correct me if I'm wrong fellow 2+2ers, but when set mining, we should be looking to get 15:1 at least, some prefer to have better than that ~20:1.

So your call of $100 means that effective stacks should be $2k+ at that point to be within our set mining principle.
QQ, LP heads-up >200BB deep, is V's speech a tell? Quote
12-15-2013 , 11:58 AM
It's all very relative. Against certain V's I've used 8.5x because they were stacking off on 100% of flops. Obviously, that's rare. You must take into consideration, liklihood of V's stacking off post flop. Position is also huge. It's much easier to extract in position so you can lower your requirements there. Number of villains in the hand is also quite important. I'll set mine vs. 8 people for much shallower stacks since the liklihood of getting paid goes way up.

In general though, callign off big chunks to set mine isn't good.
QQ, LP heads-up >200BB deep, is V's speech a tell? Quote
12-15-2013 , 01:13 PM
yeah, I usually go anywhere from 8.5% to 12% to insulate for the times he just doesn't pay off when you hit. So your implied odds are closely related to the strength of his hand and his skill level. Since this is a 4bet pot, and his range is strong, and from his talk, he doesn't seem that good, so I think you definitely have plenty of odds to set mine this pre.

Fold flop.
QQ, LP heads-up >200BB deep, is V's speech a tell? Quote
12-15-2013 , 02:58 PM
Spots like this are marginal. Limp/r is nutted, KK+, AK. If I call pf, I'm peeling the flop here but folding the turn to further pressure.

I mean I don't hate calling pf and I don't hate folding.
QQ, LP heads-up >200BB deep, is V's speech a tell? Quote
12-15-2013 , 07:30 PM
l/3 BET will be AA almost always with a few tricky AK in there from time to time.

His do u run it twice speech? Why would he ask that? Or, he could ask that postflop before chk raising or whatever---but right now it seems rediculous to ask such a question. Which fits, since so many players just blurt out stuff that makes no sense just trying to be cool or whatever.

I woulf fold preflop. Your $50 suggests pretty high strength that would not be folding, and he cares not.

Play this 100 times and folding each time will show the highest EV.
QQ, LP heads-up >200BB deep, is V's speech a tell? Quote
12-15-2013 , 07:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 11t
Spots like this are marginal. Limp/r is nutted, KK+, AK. If I call pf, I'm peeling the flop here but folding the turn to further pressure.

I mean I don't hate calling pf and I don't hate folding.
+1.

it's an ugly spot, but if I call pre (and I do without strong reads) then I'm calling flop for sure.

if he's a strong reg then (IMO) he's more likely to be limp raising with something other than AA, KK.

If he has the minerals to barrell turn with AK or 88 or 99 or something then well done but I'm flatting flop and folding turn to a second bet
QQ, LP heads-up >200BB deep, is V's speech a tell? Quote

      
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