Game is $2-$100 spread-limit (max you can raise is $100 over the previous bet).

Relevant Hand History with Villain: I raise to $10 with AK, couple calls, a Short Stack goes all-in for $85, Villain cold-calls the $85 in the BB, I reraise to $185, Villain calls that too, flop QQ3, he checks I bet $100 he calls, turn J I bet my last $30 he calls with 66 and I don’t improve.

Hand: Villain opens to $10 in MP(standard open). CO calls. I raise to $40 with QdQh. Only Villain calls. I start the hand with $340 and Villain covers.

Flop: Jd9h8d (pot: $85)

I lead for $60. Villain min-raises to $120.

With my blockers, is the better play calling, or reraising?

3bet is too small.

Check flop is probably better. If we’re betting, size is way too big. As played, call.

I’ve ****ed up the positions in my post and wish I could delete it. Here’s what it should have been:

Hand: Villain opens to $10 in MP(standard open). CO calls. I raise to $40 with QdQh on the Button. Only Villain calls. I start the hand with $340 and Villain covers.

Flop: Jd9h8d (pot: $85)

Villain checks. I bet $60. Villain min-check-raises to $120.

So no history of villain ever check raising? And he calls a large 3bet oop. Hes called large 3bs before with pps. You are ahead of 1010 and AJ and behind 95% of the rest of the hands villain might do this with. Call and evaluate. I think thats a flop you can check behind.

I am not sure about in spread limit, but in NL, this flop would be a small bet or check spot, mainly betting small with QdQh, like 20% pot. You are at a range and nut disadvantage on this board. But villain should be finding leads on this flop, so there is a little more argument for checking as villain may not be donk betting, meaning his checking range is very strong.

As played, call.

mostly unhelpful solver based advice. his range pre is supposed to be much tighter when its a squeeze as opposed to an open and facing a 3b. my guess is that doesnt happen in your games and its the same range more or less and honestly probably even wider than equilirbium would be. in the normal sim hes supposed to find a few leads but in the sqz sim (where the caller in between folds) hes supposed to lead nearly his entire range. in practice people basically never lead in 3b pots so u want to be even more careful here than the sim would suggest. going big on this board doesn't make all the sense in the world in theory but it may be fine to stack a jack. QdQx is going to be one of your most frequent cbet candidates in any kind of sim / context you can look at and its actually one of if not our best hand to put the money in over a checkraise as you have ok equity vs anything and potentially get it in good vs a draw or some kind of pair / sd. i see people get this backwards and put it in w TT sometimes here but we dont actually want to do that.

in practice, idk man. worrisome line and sizing especially given he didnt even put the last 30$ in w 66 in the one hand and instead just call / called. i think that makes it less likely its a draw or something random u do well against. id bet flop though basically always assuming MP is going to be way too wide and idk probably just unhappily 3b the flop now. given its spread limit we're going to get priced into calling down here kind of regardless of what happens, maybe 8d brick runout we can find a fold on, or if u have extreme read he never bluffs

the ak history hand im not sure it makes that much sense to bet the flop lol

Indeed….yeah, I ran it through a solver, and QQ mixes between a tiny bet and a check in this spot. (It does bet a bit more than KK or AA, though.) 0 big bets.

In fact, according to the Solver, I should literally NEVER bet two-thirds pot in this spot, with ANY hand. Oops!

idk man. its easy to say solver would never bet big here but like look at what he did with 66. its fairly clear u want to size up vs this guy, especially in spread limit (if you dont you wont be able to get all in if he doesnt raise)

UPDATE:
I do call.

TURN: Jd9h8d Ts (pot: $325) BINK.

Villain bets $100. I have $180 left. Call or raise?

You lose to only KQ here it’s an auto call if not a jam. V could easily have A/10 Diamonds. Even AK Diamonds.

Jam. So much that has to call and you and you are significant favorite on that last $80. You really need to read that limit book. I think I read skalansky like 15 or 20 years ago, maybe there is better stuff now. Pretty much all your situations become $100 limit once the pot is $150.

i mean raise now hes going to be commited with anything. can u just post the entire hh in one go instead of piece meal like this

I actually thought he was more likely to show up with an airball, so I just called.

RESULT:

Hand: Villain opens to $10 in MP(standard open). CO calls. I raise to $40 with QdQh on the Button. Only Villain calls. I start the hand with $340 and Villain covers.

Flop: Jd9h8d (pot: $85)

Villain checks. I bet $60. Villain min-check-raises to $120. I call.

Turn: Jd9h8d Ts (pot: $325)

Villain bets $100, I call.

River: Jd9h8d Ts 8c (pot: $525)

Villain bets $85, I call (all-in) for $85.

Villain tables . That’s poker.

what air balls do you think he checkraises on j98tt that dont improve on To turn and dont have enough equity to call off on the turn getting 7:1? he needs 12% equity to call

also i guess a pretty good question is why do you think hes likely to show up with an airball? nothing in the thread beyond the results to this hand support that at all

The airball thing makes no sense as a reason to not raise. Maybe 1% of the time in a limit poker game like you are playing does a guy max bet the turn with under a full bet left and shove into you giving you 6 to 1 or 7 to 1 to call the bet with air. Like this is way more rare than an OMC stacking off with JJ 100bb deep. . You are saying that happened here and you had a read, but in reality this does not happen unless the guy walks in at 3am from a craps table and its the first time hes ever played poker before. Get the rest in on the turn when the pot gets this big and you have the best hand over 50% of the time.

I think his range to continue betting on that Turn was

A) Airballs
B) Made hands (sets, two pair, AJ, lower straights)
C) Flush draws

Raising the Turn means he will fold A and call with B and C.

Calling the Turn means he will bet his last $85 with A on the River, and due to pot odds he will almost certainly need to check-call his B hands once I bet ($85 into a $610 pot). So I get the last $85 either way.

So my question was, if I get paid by the made hands regardless, is he more likely to have an Airball or a draw? Based on his actions in the pocket 6 hand (and on the flop min-check-raise in general), I thought he was more likely to be spewing with something random.

Obviously, if he'd had AdKd or Ad5d I'd have missed out on $85 by just calling the Turn. But there just weren't that many combos.

He should rarely have airballs on the turn. He should even more rarely continue the story on the river with 6 high. 0% would be the best frequency in most games with that pot size

ok but why do you think theres many combos of pure airballs that have literally no board interaction / equity that a) check raise the flop and b) continue on this turn? even look at his "airball", its still a gutshot and a bdfd. this isnt really a situation / board / game environment people should look down at 22 and decide ok im going to check raise so i can bet the turn to be able to bluff for 1/6 of pot on the river. you're projecting a really unusual thought process in some of the hands you post

can you explain why you think someone calling 85$ pre / calling off post in the 66 hand is likely to be bluffing with no equity here?