The table has been very loose preflop, with a lot of aggression post.
Hero in BB with Qh4h is viewed as TAG and hasn't got much action - stack ~$500, which is average.

Villain is a 40'ish woman that is a gambler, has been playing a lot of hands and has been aggressive. Her stack has grown and shrunk a few times over the last hour. Stack ~$400

UTG straddles $6
Five players limp, Hero calls, straddle checks.

Pot $37 (after drop)
Flop: Qd 4s 2s

Hero bets $15, 2 calls, V raises to $50. Hero calls, one other call and one fold.

I did think about 3-betting here but chose not to for a couple of reasons. First was that the villain's raise would get far less respect than my bet and the two calls before the villain concerned me at that moment.

Pot $202
Turn: Td

Checked to V, who bets $75, H calls, remaining player folds.

Pot $350 head up, effective stacks: V ~$275, H covers.
River: Qs

The river seems like a dream card. Only, I doubt the villain had a flush draw. Her hand seemed a lot more like one, or two pairs (Q4/42/Q2/QJ/QT/etc). Hero's hand looks a lot like a flush draw that just got there ... and no, I don't think her hand-reading ability goes much beyond that.

Hero?

That last Q coming off I think makes it less likely she has a Q. So I'm thinking she flopped a set and just boated up or was on the flush draw. She could have been open ended as well. You can either bet small hoping for a call or over bet. I tend to go with over betting this pot and would probably push it all in. Your hand is well disguised and don't need to get called all that often to make it worth while.

What position did she limp from? There are obviously not very many Qx hands left with only one Q unaccounted for.

We're only 66 straddles deep, OOP I would probably try to get it in before the river.

None of those hand is one or two pair on the river

There's less than pot left on the river.

I think her range right now are flushes, queens, full houses, and bluffs.

If you check, all her Flushes and full houses will bet big on the River (and likely shove). Some Queens may check back, though not many (and only the very weak ones). And some of her bluffs will bet big (although that is a terrible card to bluff on—most players will give up on that River, as they should).

If *you* open shove, she will obviously call with all her full houses. She will almost certainly call with her flushes. She *may* call with some of her trip queens. She will obviously fold all her bluffs.

It looks to me like checking is better than betting here (since by checking you get value from her bluffs and from more of her trips), but it’s obviously very close.

CO, or button.

That may very well be an error. However, I doubt she would have called much of a raise. Maybe, I don't know.

Uh huh, yup. Considering hands before the river. Should have been clearer.


That, in part, was my concern. The other was the wide range of hands she could have. I wanted her stack, but didn't know if she would call a bet, or would check behind.

The thing about a lot of 1/3 players is they only see the current bet, not the pot, or how they relate. This villain fit that profile.

The only play here is shove or at least bet. Everything else is setting money on fire.

I should have added: another hand in Villain's range is the occasional 42 (flopped two-pair). This obviously will not call a River bet either (but might bluff--GTO loves shoving in spots like this, blocking the likely full houses).

This further supports my view that the best play is to check.

Hmm, yes the best play is defiantly one of these options.

Unless madlex is right and I should have raised the turn.

But then, that's why I posted the hand.

Raise turn.

As played Im not sure how that card hurts V. If she is a basic player as described she should bet it. I think a check lets her bet and feel committed when you jam. If you jam maybe she gets away from KQ or AQ. Your line is so strong if you donk jam and doesn’t not follow a natural bluff. Would you ever jam there without a big flush or better?

Raise the turn, I shove the river AP. They can’t make loose calls if you don’t bet.

Fold pf. The fact that you hit a 25:1 against on the flop, get your 4 outer on the river to improve more and you made a thread about it asking what to do says all you need to know about your call pf.

You pay $3 preflop to play poker for the next couple of minutes instead of having to play with your phone while almost everybody else at the table is playing.

Besides that we're getting 13:1 on the call. The only reason why I would ever fold here was out of fear of the straddler raising.

Folding PF never crossed my mind, the odds we’re getting are absurd and as long as we aren’t total spazzes postflop it should be +EV.

I just can't agree. OOP, or not, the immediate odds and implied odds are too great to fold. Now, if the straddle does raise, easy fold. If Hero whiffs the flop, easy fold.

Even though I feel errors were made post-flop, I still think my post-flop skills are superior to most of the others in the game and defiantly better than the villains. It's the post-flop skill difference that makes the pre-flop call +EV. Anyway, I posted the hand to improve my post-flop further.

The key was my initial statement: If that wasn't true and practically the entire table hadn't limped, I might have easily folded pre-flop.

I’m not raising the Turn, solely for “don’t go broke in a limped pot” reasons. There aren’t many hands that can call a check-raise here that you’re beating, and if you’re shoved on you kinda have to puke-call.

I’ve listed my reasons for why I think checking the River is best. I don’t think she’ll CALL a shove with trip queens, but she very likely will value-own herself by betting it. But if she has a lower full house or flush, she’s shoving herself. And while unlikely, she might have bluffs in her range that will fire again if we check.

Valid point. However, there is still the matter of the 3rd player. At the time, I wasn't considering him much. But, as stated, I knew he wasn't respecting the villain's bets. That makes a turn check/raise something to protect my hand and force a fold as I didn't have a clue he was going to fold anyway.

As to the possibility of getting shoved on by the villain, while possible, I just didn't think so. Her hand didn't look like a set, but 1, or maybe 2 pair.

Still, I think it's 60/40, or 70/30 to check/call the turn.

Now here I'm mostly agreeing with you, but not completely. When the board pairs and the flush gets there (which is the most obvious drawing hand), she is going to check behind all of her two pair hands, maybe even trips and betting any flopped sets, or flushes. That means that, the majority of hands she could have, will check.

If I shove, then only the trips, flushes, or full houses will call - the minority of hands I had her on.

However, if I bet $100, or one stack of $5's, she will likely call much more loosely and would raise with the stronger and smaller part of her range.

I say this because we see people check/call flop and turn, then bluff donk the river fairly often. It's a dumb play, but people have been using it for years.

Despite what I just said, I'm still undecided.

Results:

I hate the check call turn, donk shove river line. It screams even to the worst players at the table fold everything you can. If you are donking make it a blocker sizing. Maybe I have a leak but I fold everything below an ace high flush to someone who takes that line at 1/3. I doubt it is though. It seems like two pair or a small set that boated up, and this case and most cases it was and is.

Raise the turn, bet river or check call turn, check jam the river.

The river is a board-pairing flush card. Most LLSNL villains will not be value owning themselves or bluffing here. They’ll be scared we rivered a flush, even though we actually have better.

The play here is to jam, I think.

EDIT: posted this before I saw results. I think if you check, you get a tank-check back instead of a tank fold. I still think jamming is best.

Raise flop. Raise turn. Jam river AP.

Noob perspective:

I think if you smooth-call the turn, you're compelled to check river when you boat up and the flush draw gets there.

Per description, if you check it seems like she's fairly likely to blast off rather than to check back, but might fold if you open-jam (which looks suspiciously strong).

I just think she has more hands that would bet if checked to than would call if bet into.