Quote:
Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk
Because IME at most tables you won’t get called by trash - a good result - if you raise too big (unless you are playing with an exceptionally loose and gambooly V). So standard sizing makes sense because you want people to get in there with their garbage.
Also, for the times we have AK and 95s isn’t making a technical mistake (although we all know how big of a mistake it really is), we will have A5s, AA-TT, etc. and V will be making a big mistake pre, even if we are only raising to $20.
(As an explo I will raise bigger - much bigger in some cases - if I know V will call wide for a larger sizing. But this is the exception rather than the rule.)
I agree that there’s an inflection point (like if we make it $50 with our entire range, everyone will just fold unless they’re near the top of their own range, barring being a complete moron). But it doesn’t seem common to stretch it further. Like if they’ll call $25 with the same range as $20, isn’t $25 better? Assuming we construct our own range tightly.
Good example post flop where formulation is easier: we have top set and bet - 3 bet a flop on like Js7x3s. Turn is a total blank, like a 2d. Given combos (let’s say the dude only has flush draws / combo draws and sets), we have 84% equity in a pot of X, and let’s say we have 4X behind.
What’s the best bet size? More likely than not, whatever is the most we can bet to where a flush draw will still call. If AsTs thinks it’s only making the winner around 1/6th of the time on the river, then (pot + bet + remaining stack) / bet > 5, else it has to fold. Realistically as a flush draw, it has to be higher than 5.
But let’s pretend we do bet pot and offer 5:1 maximum implied odds. This is probably close to optimal in a vacuum, as maybe half the time we get a call with 85% equity (so an EV of approx 0.55X ahead of the turn going check check, 85% share of a 3X pot where we invested X), and the other half of the time, get the money immediately.
But if dude is a degen who has to see all 5 cards, we’re best off jamming.
Apologies for the stream of consciousness, but essentially what I’m getting at is why hugely exploitative preflop strategies don’t seem to be as en vogue as compared to postflop.
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