Villian has ~$200, hero has covered

UTG Hero raises to $15 w 88

1 Caller in CO

flop 678r

Hero bets $25, villian calls,

turn 10

Hero?

Bet 45-50. You've got a set. Build a pot. He either got there or he didn't. You're oop, so you won't know until he acts, but meantime we can't let him draw for cheap.

But the most worrisome draw got there

I'd rather open limp and setmine. However, our raise did get this HU, so at least that was successful. Still, we're going to be OOP in a bloated pot where we're going to hate the vast majority of flops, so not ideal, imo.

Flop is fine, although I'd probably just pot it.

I'd probably check the turn. We probably not getting much value from ABC players here, plus we let aggro players take the lead and bluff off their chips. I'm never folding the turn once I check, especially once flopping a set in a raised pot for 66bbs.

GcluelessNLnoobG

If so, good for him. If we check and he bets that 45, are we going to lay it down? We've flopped a set.

If villain is often calling the turn without a set or straight then I'm betting and getting it in since he is so short. If not just check call and reevaluate river if blank comes. If he pounces on weakness I'd probably cc turn and river

This is very villain dependent on what u do but u have 10 outs. So u have to at least call turn if he will stack off if board pairs

We could also check turn and b/f river

grunch: 70 - 80 setting up river shove. this seems pretty straight forward to me without any reads. you're going for stacks imo. can't have mubs when you flop a beauty like this. make the draws pay to get there. make everything else pay to lose to your set. if v has a straight good for him this time.

I don't think there are any draws to charge on a 678T rainbow board. What can villian draw to, a smaller boat?

This is a way ahead, way behind situation. He either has a straight so we have to fill up on the river, or he has two pair and we have him crushed. I'd check/call and re-evaluate river.

oh yeah, i didn't pay attention to that tun T. i'd still play the same. i'd be going for stacks.

check flop. stop worrying so much about scare cards. let the pfr be the one who is overly concerned about scare cards so he overbets flop with qq.

I think you want to get to show down here.

After your flop bet you have $40 in to a $96 pot. V has $160 behind. I would bet $30 on the turn. For five reasons (1) you will have idea where you are if you check (2) shipping it on this board ******ed. What for? First off it he doesn't have it - he's folding to a ship and you're losing value and (3) $30 looks like you're betting for value weakly with a very strong hand - like a straight. So if he has a 9 (which is not the nuts) he would be inclined just to call - letting you see the river and (4) if he doesn't have it but instead has a piece he might be inclined to call $30 and (5) If you bet $30 and he ships you can still find a fold.

If I am not mistaken the pot odds are:

Pot: $126 plus $160 or $286 and you need $130 to call or 2.2 to 1. I think the odds of winning against any 9 are about 20%. So (I think) you can still actually find a fold if he ships it.

Comments on this evaluation are welcome!

We raised pre

oh, used to seeing utg after Heros name when hero is pfr.

bet vs villains who will still call with 7x, etc but who won't bluff/bet with them. bet small on blank rivers. check/call turn vs rest of villains, bet medium on rivers if turn check-check.

Turn Action

Hero Bets $50, Villian raise all in ~$120 more for hero to call

Hero?

Don't open UTG for 5bb with a mediocre, flop-dependent hand like 88 when your stack is 66bb. You could get 3b off the hand preflop, and the raise will push out some hands that will give you action when you hit a set.

At this stack size you should only play 88 UTG when you're dead positive that the table will limp around, and many players will come along.

PREflop: limp (call small) set mine. I would call a small pre raise for the set value. We get info on a range from some viallains pre-flop.

As played: on Turn:

A) Check/call smallish (fold shove) turn, check/call small (fold big) river brick. Getting value from bluffs. calling. though don't like it. obv if big bet on river, need to re-evaluate check/fold, but OOP play makes this very difficult.

--- lol, Couldn't have asked for a better flop. At least its rainbow. :-)

OR.

B) Bet big/shove turn. He's got it (nh), we've got outs (to win or chop). Unlikely we will get called big on the river with a worse hand. So if contemplating a bet, i'd bet turn huge (and already prepared that i am calling his all-in). If i am not prepared to call his all-in raise i don't bet big. (still preference is A check/call OOP and a more controlled way out - variance!). Also if V don't have it he'd be likely worried about it. So turn a good time to pump it if we are feeling we might be good. - not making any money on river. (unlikely)

i guess it's decision time on turn. am i giving up on this hand (check/calling), or going with it. This would i guess be heavily V dependent preflop call (range?) and our read. A or B Depends on V. (99+, T9) Range ? Maybe can discount High cards/paint cards on flop flat call. So smaller sets (66,77) good or T9 or something with a 9. J9, Q9 bad?

What did you end up doing and how did it go?

This is purely a pokerstove problem. Assign them a range and do the math.

Just read this.

I am calling but i don't like it. Wishing for one of my ten outs (locks) to come sailing in.

In general (though i fail most times) with big pots brewing i try not to make big bets before i have already made up my mind i am going with this hand. If i don't feel super comfortable, try and control the pot. especially OOP. hence i'd check/call?

i'd rather check/call his $50 turn bet, then lead out for $50 and then face an all-in. (weak?)

Check call turn, depending on sizing. C/f river unimproved, c/r river when we fill up

Raising 15 to win 5 under the gun is just counterproductive. If you can limp and get tons of players to throw their 3 in the pot pre then it is perfect. The "i dont limp" policy many players have is accurate online and pitiful in many live games.

Most of the time (if raising) you will be 3-4 way action, miss the flop, and be trying to win vs sticky 2-3 players postflop. This game really isnt that hard, but quite a few players insist on making it tougher on themselves than they should.

You have probably heard arguments for both sides but i urge you to sit down and think about what will normally happen pre and post, look at your risk vs reward considering position etc, and come to your own conclusion after hearing the two sides of arguments you may hear on the forum.

As played this is a simple bet/fold half pot on turn. I would never ever check here. You MUST make sure to bet physically strong and appear in love with your hand so that you are never bluffraised on the turn. If raised it is a simple math problem as to whether you should call, however you should include the river shove money possible to be made if you hit, since he wont fold whatever he raised with.

Now i see you bet 50 on turn and must call 110 to win a total pot of $400.

You need ~25% equity for this call to break even. You have 22% equity. You must fold. This is unfortunately one of those times you have to bet/fold a set on the turn. This is the optimal way to play the hand as much as it may seem to suck.
Some player BOMB the turn so that they price themselves in if raised, however that is nothing more than a copout and poor playing (but they know they cant fold so they do it as an excuse never to fold).

If you want to play top flight poker, you will play it where you leave yourself the options necessary to make a good fold. Its hard to do admittedly. Nobody said optimal poker was easy. Thank god its not.

Betting turn is turning a made hand into a bluff and very exploitable line for hero's range even by fish. Whats the point of betting if you are folding 100% of the time and can get bluff shoved on with weak made hands or draws, if the villain has at least minimal ability to read boards he will shove a wide range here and we are just wasting a turn bet if we always fold. People play rivers pretty honestly so we can always reevaluate both streets depending on his sizing and reads

not at my computer but pots 300 and 120 more so your getting 2.5 to 1 on a call so you need at least 28% equity. You have 10 outs to a fh/quads so you have about 20% equity so this is a fold.

This is not the final answer though. factor in the times he may be doing this with two pair, sets, ect this is all player dependent and we have no info, and stove this. This should be the type of work you do away from the table.

Ya, this might be a bit opponent dependent, but I think this is a fairly trivial call at this point. If he's bluffy in the least, or could be wtf-I-has-two-pair+-I-guess-I-shove, I think this makes this a snap call (especially starting the hand this short). I mean, the only time we are just slightly off our required boat/quad odds is when we are beat, and surely we are not always beat here (unless up against an omc coffee type)?

Ganddon'tcallmeShirleyG