Here's the situation: I'm playing short-stacked (because I think it's much easier and safer to play a SS strategy when you're a donk like me and while building your game) at a 1/3 NL table at the Rio with mostly tourists and a couple of confident young "local pros" who strolled in together.

The villain in this hand is one of the two local pros. He and the other local pro have been playing the role of table captains, and play a fairly laggy style, but he hasn't gotten too out of line after the flop without at least a solid draw. Basically he likes to punish a series of limpers and make c-bets, but when he meets strength, he slows down. I've been playing a tight SS strategy, playing premium hands only.

In the hand in question, I'm in the BB and a tourist limps in MP and villain limps from the CO (almost $300 behind). Button calls, SB folds, and I look at QQ with about $120 (40bb) behind. I make it $20 to go, MP folds, villain calls and button folds. I put him on two face cards, thinking he would've mucked his small PPs knowing he's not getting the implied odds he needs to call (unless he plans on outplaying me).

Flop comes 6-4-4 rb, with ~$45 (15bb) in pot. My SPR is approx 2.2, so right where I need to be to get my money in safely I believe. I lead out for $24, and villain makes it $65 to go.

All of a sudden, realize I'm wrong for thinking he would've thrown his small PPs away. I feel he could possibly be doing that with or 77 (I ruled out 88-AA as I think he would've played differently PF) or maybe if he was open-ended as well, but I felt like it was likely the flop nailed him like [insert perverse analogy here], especially knowing that I'm very unlikely to fold here unless I have the lowest part in my range (AK). At this point I have about $75 behind with almost $130 in pot.

The question I have is whether anyone thinks it's ever justified to fold here (with an SPR of about 2) if you're convinced you're beat?

no

Its a cooler if he's got 6's or 4's, shove and be happy.

and why are you convinced you're beat? he could have any pair 77 - JJ and make this move after your weakish flop bet. get it in.

No, get your money in (this is why you are playing SS). sorry you ran into top of his range (take it to BBV).

Sorry but this is not really worthy of a PAHWM since there is only like one trivial decision point for like less than 50BBs

No, get your money in (this is why you are playing SS). sorry you ran into top of his range (take it to BBV).

Sorry but this is not really worthy of a PAHWM since there is only like one trivial decision point for like less than 50BBs

I hate to sound harsh, but ^^ This.

Seriously, if you are thinking about folding here, it's a big leak. Unless "local pro" knows you are playing a real SS strategy, you could have any two paint here. Many tourists play this way, and some weak regs.

I'm not sure how you can be thinking about folding here given this flop, his possible range, and your stack sizes.

I think his range is quite broad, and I see this play weighted heavily towards an overpair to the board smaller than your QQ, or complete air, trying to push you off what he sees as your C-Bet of AK. While he could have a hand like A4 or another 4 here, I think it is unlikely, and there are only 3 combo's of 66.

AA and KK are out. If he flatted on the button because he has ESP and knew you had QQ and were going and then smooth called your raise pre-flop with AA or KK to trap you like this, then well-played on his part, but again I just don't see that as likely.

After going through all of this, I would shove the rest of my stack in the middle, expecting him to call the remaining $35 and show me a pocket pair I beat or folding his bluff.

Cliffs: You're crushing his range. Shove the rest of the chips in the middle ASAP. If he beats you, well played on his part.

Maybe I should've named the thread "when to deviate from general short stack strategy" or something similar, for these types of situations are what define the difference between winning and losing sessions for me most of the time.

I agree to an extent, which is why I feel at conflicted sometimes. When you have a big hand with 40bb, usually you should try to get your stack in as quickly as possible.

But what about when let's say hypothetically the villain put in a small raise and I three bet from bb instead and he flats. Then flop comes A-K-4. Does that create another decision point, or is it still a hand I should commit to?

This is where I start thinking about the "pick up a big hand and try to get it in" idea and wondering if there's ever an exception to the rule...