Quote:
Originally Posted by ChaosInEquilibrium
You’re kind of zooming past an interesting decision point here…you should at least consider a x/r versus this weak turn sizing, with a player on BTN behind you can get BB to fold some weak 1-pair hands. You have a monster draw and you also just want to build a pot….you can give up on brick rivers (though you don’t have to) and it’ll still be profitable to build a pot for when you hit. Versus this anemic action your K/Q outs are almost certainly live as well. You can bluff A rivers and get a stubborn Tx or pair+gutter to fold.
As played the river is a clear bet. I think it’s likely at least one of the players has a T or hit the J with their QJ/KJ/J8/J7 (more likely the BTN) and we want to bet larger to target those hands. I’d go at least to $40.
Just want to point out here that if we are now going to target other straight draws that rivered top pair, we shouldn’t be assuming our pair outs are live when we’re looking at the turn action.
I do agree that we should be considering a turn raise after this action, and that we should bet the river; but I don’t know if we should be betting “big”. I think we can bet $25 and hope that if someone rivered 2 pair (or a straight with Q8) they will raise (or if somehow the original opener was slowplaying a set). I think in this spot, with the overcard river, the worst thing we can do would be to bet a size where a second-best hand just calls when we might have induced a raise from a smaller bet. We also have the benefit that if we bet smaller we could get called twice. I guess this is true for bigger too, but maybe not as much.