Yes, and at least where I play people play back at c-bets (and that's 1/2) by calling and betting the turn.

We pick up so much equity ott it's a great card to barrel and get him to fold all the random Tx and draws he might have.

Honestly I'm c/c river here.
When he calls the turn he either has A) strong hand (2p, set) B) A mediocre hand Tx or and overpair(they consider this a strong hand) B) a missed draw.

I feel like we can discount 2p and sets just a bit as he might be raising them at some point in the hand?

When we c/c here we give him a chance to bet with all his overpairs thinking it's the nuts, bet his missed draws, and even bet his weaker 9x.

This eliminates us betting and him shipping and giving us great odds to call >.< and also lets him value own himself as we're only beat here by a few hands. (TT 33 9T.)

b/f $120

If he raises you, you're beat. If you check, he'll probably bet more than 120.

That was awfully quick to post the river action.

grunched it anyway...

Based on your assessment, I c/c this thing. But, without that "tell" you are confident in, I'm leading again but don't know what I'll do when/if he raises. I just don't see the point in c/c'ing when we have been leading the whole way...without knowledge that he fires at weakness. Without your tell, I am not thinking he's ever raising other than boats, unless he's crazy enough to raise TP that just two paired up.

At this level live, where players routinely over value their hands, I just don't know if I can fold the river. As already mentioned, the turn action as borderline ******ed if villain has T9/33/TT - IMO I think it's very feasible for villain to show up with a worse 9 or a poorly played overpair. It's by no means a fist-pump snap call, but I think we have to pay off here and expect to be good a decent amount of the time. If not - take notes and store it in the memory bank.

Can't think of a hand we beat here. He can't have 9X of hearts as we have 9h. I doubt he is calling two barrels with Q9. I don't see straightforward shwoing overa third barrel with busted flushdraws.

Uh oh mby overplayed JJ? But so unlikely ...

Yeah this is kind of a clear bet/fold the river but the absolute strength of our hand is so strong I just have a real hard time folding here since it looks like he just spazzed out due to the fact that a set/two pair really needs to raise the turn.

Why does he? Our line can't make him worrying. If he has TT we are drawing for two outs in his eyes. 5 if he has T9. It is almost impossible for him to put us on a FD ott.

I think I'm leaning this way now too; I forgot he probably also bets his overpairs. My guess is the only hand we might miss value from is Tx (but he might even bet that).

Because we could have a lot of straight draws that are stacking him on the river if we hit (I'm assuming he is shoving the river here 100% of the time if he is smooth calling the turn) but not giving him any action if we miss.

A lot of straight draws? Really? Much more than we do have TP+ one pair hands?

Yeah, like 50% of your range (this is just a guess since I'm at work) of hands like KQ/KJ/QJ/87/j8 etc... (which are far more combos) than AA/KK/QQ/JJ/AT/KT and AT and KT might bet/fold the river but they are never bet/calling and neither are any of the AA/KK/QQ/JJ hands since they are all of the same value. Furthermore this all presumes villain KNOWS you are going to be betting the river here which is nonsense because a lot of players are shutting down after two streets.

And just from experience most players are not calling two streets with a set here although obviously it happens and if they flat the flop they will often be raising on the turn.

I think you've been set-mined... 33 has been in my head reading this thread start to finish... hope I'm wrong though.

Soo people are 3 barreling with overs+gutshots more often then with overpairs?

I think we should stop here, take our time with stove, and come back to this discussion.

Of course not, my point was that the hands that we are actually afraid of (if we have a set) are the hands that are likely shutting down on the river. Few if any people triple barrel live so by flat calling the turn vs straight draws we are giving them a free equity ride to the river, where if they hit we are losing a big pot and due to the wide range of possible straight draws there are a ton of cards that are "scare cards" which will affect our decision.

I mean because of the pot size we are likely always +EV on the turn vs a possible range even if we don't win another dime on the river vs hands that we beat and always stack off when we lose, but I think it is more optimal to raise the turn both for value versus our opponents range and because we are putting ourselves in a RIO situation. I mean realistically Hero hit the one card that gets him stacked here so villain in many ways got "lucky" however, if a heart hits villain is put in an entirely different scenario and if the river blanks Hero just check/folds.

Anyway, the entire discussion is a little moot because I say raise the flop if you have a set.

So what do we think his range here is? I feel like with OP's previous hands with villain he is calling with a lot of SC and broadways + broadway gappers?

TT,JJ,(maybe QQ?)33,ATo(s),QJo(s)J8o(s)(I think we might be able to take J8 out of his range)T9s(o).

On the river against this range we have 86% equity. Easy c/c imo.
Take away QQ and J8 we have 79% equity. Easy c/c.
Take away QJ we have 66% equity.
Take away JJ we still have 57% equity against his range.

This doesn't even take into account the times he is "trapping us" KK-AA. Or the times he spazzes out with some random 9x or Tx hands.

I don't think we can take away the WTF factor from live 1/2nl players. He could definitely be betting/raising so much worse than just boats.

you like a check call on the river versus his range or is it just because of the read going into the river?

I like c/c otr because of my perceived range of his. When we bet his calling range is really thin and we are getting raised by his boats(again with wtf factor he could be raising things that make us fold, if he some how winds up with 9x here, or raising overpair again because he thinks he's "trapping).
When we c/c we let him bet all his over pairs and stupid Tx , his spazz range, and his missed draws.

Dude this is not 5/10+. If we check we miss value Vs straight forward players when he check's back. If your scared go ahead and c/c, or miss value like a fish.. If the guy can't position stab(which I never see at low stakes) then checking is losing value.

You need to read jman's well he talks about this subject vs straightforward players.

Gl

Fwiw, I see 1/2 players position stab quite often. And, if OP has the read/tell that it's coming, I don't fault him for going after it because of what's been mentioned.....it opens villain's betting range a lot and it closes action in a spot where b/f'ing has to think about "the spaz factor" like has been debated.

To those advocating a bet OTR, what exactly do you think villain can have here that will call 3 barrels that we also beat? What are we possibly "missing value" from?

I'm check/calling OTR.

Good post OP. It's nice to see a non-regular post an interesting and well organized situation.

I agree that I like check/calling more than betting mainly because we really don't know if villain overvalues hands or not (raises with worst). therefore, bet/folding can be hugely -EV. This is very reads specific based on observing prior hands, which has not been provided. So, I think all in all, I like ch/calling more


As for what hands we beat from a straight forward villain:

1) Mainly Tx
2) The occasional/rare overpair (while not likely, I CAN see villain playing an OP this way to trap and pot control 2 streets with.

However, I don't think he is likely to ever raise with worse (unless of course he can overvalue hand strengths...which goes back to reads)

Thanks. I should probably post more. I'm pretty busy so I don't get to play that much.

I bet the river with the intent of getting value from his Tx and overpairs. I considered c/c, but I thought he'd check behind too much with TP. One part of my game I've been working on is v-betting thin, and I thought that's what I was doing here.

I didn't think villain would put me on trip 9's and that since I'd been playing pretty aggressive overall, I could get paid by TP.

(Yes, I realize this flies directly into the face of my read on the turn.)

I had not seen villain raise with worse.
I'd only seen him raise twice. The hand against me OTT with likely trips, and a hand against another villain where he flopped 2 pair and raised OTF.

yeah, I know you gave the description in your OP. So here's my question:

If we assume villain is a fully credentialed "straight forward" type player (with no ambiguities), is he really likely to call you down three streets with Tx?

For him to do that, he must convince himself that you are bluffing three streets or raising pre with a wider range. If that's the case, then this is more a trait of a station than a s/f player. I see a s/f player calling your flop bet close to 100% (with Tx). But on turn, he would likely give up. If he doesn't give up on turn, I see him folding river waaay more than calling.

So either he is not a s/f player or he likely has no Tx in his calling range on river. Based on the info you provided in your OP, I agree villain is s/f....which brings me to the conclusion that he isn't calling with Tx.

Someone else (I think 11T) brought up a good point: Can villain play overpairs this way AND overvalue them? If he did (unlikely, btw based on the traits of a s/f player) in order to trap and deceive, then his likely river action would still be a call not a raise, given the way the board ran out.

How about A9? Not a likely holding after turn, unless villain is a station OR he has a strong sense that you are double barreling with air.

TT, 99, 33, 9T: If villain puts you on a range of overpairs, then raising turn would kill the action (think back to minraise turn and hero folding in prior hand). So villain contemplating can conceivably be him weighing the pros and cons of flatting vs. raising. This fits in even if NFDs are in your range. Villain has a great hand and is not sure if hero folds to a turn raise.

Once you bet river, villain is confident that hero has a hand he likes and chooses what he sees as the best opportunity to raise and get called