Game: 2/5NL, min 200 max 500.
History: Hero is new to the table, no particular reads other than some pre-flop basics. Hero has a neutral image, has not had any hands go to showdown and has played 20-30 minutes of basic TAG poker. Who knows if any of the villains are even thinking about Hero's image/style/etc.
Effective Stacks: 100bbs ($500)
Hero's Hand/Position A
T
in the SB
Tight old man limps UTG. Unknown limps in MP. Hero completes and BB checks.
Reasons for PF:
- Keeps in worse Ax and Tx
- Increases the chance of seeing a cheap flop with a hand that draws well to the nuts in MW pots
- Under-reps my hand
- Doesn't create a large pot OOP in what is likely to be a MW pot where a) my most likely hand is going to be a marginal 1-pair hand and b) my SPR is going to be insufficiently low for me to commit with it in a 3-4 way pot.
Flop ($20): K
Q
T
Hero leads for $15. Tight Old Man makes it $45. Folded back to Hero calls.
Contrary to what some people posted I didn't think that enough of people's limping ranges would connect with this board in a way to make them bet. I wanted to make sure that I start building the pot so that if I hit I can win something more than $20. I am also not worried about getting raised, as the only part of villains range against which I don't have good equity is AJ, and against that hand I have 40%+ equity.
I am obviously not folding here. Would love to hear thoughts on calling vs. raising here. Irrespective of the line you recommend, it would be helpful if you start outlining a plan for the rest of the hand/consider how different parts of TOM's range continue/act on this/future streets.
I called here because I think that if we get it in on this flop with so much money behind, it's +EV, but that I can force the opponent to make more mistakes with more sub-segments of his range by playing more streets of poker.
We are now HU with the old man:
Turn ($110): K
Q
T
5
Things to think about
:
- which parts of villain's flop raising range will bet if checked to vs. check behind?
- Is a free card more likely to help or hurt us?
- If we go for a c/r, how good is our fold equity? What's his calling range and how is our equity against that?
- If we lead out, will worse hands call or better hands fold?
- If we c/c, who is likely to make the bigger mistake on the river? What kind of implied odds will we have?
Hero checks, villain bets $65, Hero calls.
River ($240): K
Q
T
5
J
Bink!
Hero ??
Bet/Call, Shove or Check/Shove, and why? Please include sizing in your posts where relevant.