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PAHWM: ATs @ 2/5NL PAHWM: ATs @ 2/5NL

10-26-2011 , 10:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
If the lottery hit 1/20 times and payed 100x the price of a ticket, would you play?

Lottery poker can be very profitable in the right circumstances. It shouldn't be all you know how to do, but if the table is selling tickets for less than their EV, buy a couple.
I absolutely agree. The key here is that the overwhelming majority of LLSNL players do not know how to maximize value when they hit, do not steal pots when they don't hit, and do not build pots or find fold equity when a draw is flopped.
PAHWM: ATs @ 2/5NL Quote
10-26-2011 , 11:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PokahBlows
Who is CaliDonks? Because that post makes no sense.
ILCD was your username that was banned just two days before PokahBlows was created.

You can prove me wrong by showing me just one post from either the ILCD or Pokahblows accounts that properly contracted the words "you" and "are."
PAHWM: ATs @ 2/5NL Quote
10-26-2011 , 11:06 PM
Nice level dude.
PAHWM: ATs @ 2/5NL Quote
10-27-2011 , 03:39 AM
I think hero played the hand perfectly up to this point and the river is a c/f or c/c depending on villain's bet size.

Without reads I don't like raising pf because we don't have any idea of villain's limp/call ranges or how they play post flop (tight, passive, etc). And if this was a game where people were limp/calling a lot and playing weakly postflop I'd argue that ATs isn't a hand we want to be isolating with because we're missing out on a lot of the value it has ie it's ability to cooler worse hands (two pairs, flushes). In said game I'd rather isolate with ATo or T8s.
PAHWM: ATs @ 2/5NL Quote
10-27-2011 , 04:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Schadenfred
ILCD was your username that was banned just two days before PokahBlows was created.

You can prove me wrong by showing me just one post from either the ILCD or Pokahblows accounts that properly contracted the words "you" and "are."
Sherlock Holmes ITT
PAHWM: ATs @ 2/5NL Quote
10-27-2011 , 08:30 AM
lol ilovecalidonks........... miss that fish
PAHWM: ATs @ 2/5NL Quote
10-27-2011 , 09:33 AM
This is the first of several hands I am planning on posting. Figured I would try this one as a PAHWM.

Game: 2/5NL, min 200 max 500.

History: Hero is new to the table, no particular reads other than some pre-flop basics. Hero has a neutral image, has not had any hands go to showdown and has played 20-30 minutes of basic TAG poker. Who knows if any of the villains are even thinking about Hero's image/style/etc.

Effective Stacks: 100bbs ($500)

Hero's Hand/Position AT in the SB

Tight old man limps UTG. Unknown limps in MP. Hero completes and BB checks.

Reasons for PF:

- Keeps in worse Ax and Tx
- Increases the chance of seeing a cheap flop with a hand that draws well to the nuts in MW pots
- Under-reps my hand
- Doesn't create a large pot OOP in what is likely to be a MW pot where a) my most likely hand is going to be a marginal 1-pair hand and b) my SPR is going to be insufficiently low for me to commit with it in a 3-4 way pot.

Flop ($20): KQT

Hero leads for $15. Tight Old Man makes it $45. Folded back to Hero calls.

Contrary to what some people posted I didn't think that enough of people's limping ranges would connect with this board in a way to make them bet. I wanted to make sure that I start building the pot so that if I hit I can win something more than $20. I am also not worried about getting raised, as the only part of villains range against which I don't have good equity is AJ, and against that hand I have 40%+ equity.

I am obviously not folding here. Would love to hear thoughts on calling vs. raising here. Irrespective of the line you recommend, it would be helpful if you start outlining a plan for the rest of the hand/consider how different parts of TOM's range continue/act on this/future streets.

I called here because I think that if we get it in on this flop with so much money behind, it's +EV, but that I can force the opponent to make more mistakes with more sub-segments of his range by playing more streets of poker.

We are now HU with the old man:

Turn ($110): KQT5

Things to think about:
- which parts of villain's flop raising range will bet if checked to vs. check behind?
- Is a free card more likely to help or hurt us?
- If we go for a c/r, how good is our fold equity? What's his calling range and how is our equity against that?
- If we lead out, will worse hands call or better hands fold?
- If we c/c, who is likely to make the bigger mistake on the river? What kind of implied odds will we have?

Hero checks, villain bets $65, Hero ??
PAHWM: ATs @ 2/5NL Quote
10-27-2011 , 10:10 AM
I don't think TOM is folding any part of his range that leads here but he's giving you almost the correct odds to call.

Does where you're playing have any bonus for a Royal?
PAHWM: ATs @ 2/5NL Quote
10-27-2011 , 10:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaronk56
I don't think TOM is folding any part of his range that leads here but he's giving you almost the correct odds to call.

Does where you're playing have any bonus for a Royal?
I would get a jacket or a gas card for a royal but honestly this is the first time I thought about that aspect of the hand . So I guess a 2% probability x $50 (?) Value of the bonus is close enough to 0 to ignore imo.
PAHWM: ATs @ 2/5NL Quote
10-27-2011 , 10:49 AM
I asked because where I usually play they have a high hand jackpot which on a typical weekend is around $2,500 so the EV is around $50.
PAHWM: ATs @ 2/5NL Quote
10-27-2011 , 10:56 AM
turn didn't change anything, so continue to float
PAHWM: ATs @ 2/5NL Quote
10-27-2011 , 11:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaronk56
I asked because where I usually play they have a high hand jackpot which on a typical weekend is around $2,500 so the EV is around $50.
This was Foxwoods. You play at Mohegan Sun?
PAHWM: ATs @ 2/5NL Quote
10-27-2011 , 11:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Setsy
This was Foxwoods. You play at Mohegan Sun?
Yeah
PAHWM: ATs @ 2/5NL Quote
10-27-2011 , 01:16 PM
Probably calling this turn, even tho I hate having just 1 more street... If we think we can get villain to call a medium sized river if we hit, its a call.

We are 39% against top 2 pair, and around 21% against made straights.
PAHWM: ATs @ 2/5NL Quote
10-27-2011 , 07:54 PM
Def calling this turn, even though IOs are small. I don't see him laying down 2P+ if we shove, and I think that dominates his range.

We should be able to get a crying call out of him if we hit the flush or the straight and lead small. I would never check if we hit, because most TOM will check back whenever a FD comes in, even if your line makes no sense for a FD. Given that you line here definitely makes sense for a FD...

A more interesting question is what do we do if an A or a T hits... That might still be c/f territory...
PAHWM: ATs @ 2/5NL Quote
10-27-2011 , 10:47 PM
C/c is fine
PAHWM: ATs @ 2/5NL Quote
10-27-2011 , 11:37 PM
Game: 2/5NL, min 200 max 500.

History: Hero is new to the table, no particular reads other than some pre-flop basics. Hero has a neutral image, has not had any hands go to showdown and has played 20-30 minutes of basic TAG poker. Who knows if any of the villains are even thinking about Hero's image/style/etc.

Effective Stacks: 100bbs ($500)

Hero's Hand/Position AT in the SB

Tight old man limps UTG. Unknown limps in MP. Hero completes and BB checks.

Reasons for PF:

- Keeps in worse Ax and Tx
- Increases the chance of seeing a cheap flop with a hand that draws well to the nuts in MW pots
- Under-reps my hand
- Doesn't create a large pot OOP in what is likely to be a MW pot where a) my most likely hand is going to be a marginal 1-pair hand and b) my SPR is going to be insufficiently low for me to commit with it in a 3-4 way pot.

Flop ($20): KQT

Hero leads for $15. Tight Old Man makes it $45. Folded back to Hero calls.

Contrary to what some people posted I didn't think that enough of people's limping ranges would connect with this board in a way to make them bet. I wanted to make sure that I start building the pot so that if I hit I can win something more than $20. I am also not worried about getting raised, as the only part of villains range against which I don't have good equity is AJ, and against that hand I have 40%+ equity.

I am obviously not folding here. Would love to hear thoughts on calling vs. raising here. Irrespective of the line you recommend, it would be helpful if you start outlining a plan for the rest of the hand/consider how different parts of TOM's range continue/act on this/future streets.

I called here because I think that if we get it in on this flop with so much money behind, it's +EV, but that I can force the opponent to make more mistakes with more sub-segments of his range by playing more streets of poker.

We are now HU with the old man:

Turn ($110): KQT5

Things to think about:
- which parts of villain's flop raising range will bet if checked to vs. check behind?
- Is a free card more likely to help or hurt us?
- If we go for a c/r, how good is our fold equity? What's his calling range and how is our equity against that?
- If we lead out, will worse hands call or better hands fold?
- If we c/c, who is likely to make the bigger mistake on the river? What kind of implied odds will we have?

Hero checks, villain bets $65, Hero calls.

River ($240): KQT5J

Bink!

Hero ??


Bet/Call, Shove or Check/Shove, and why? Please include sizing in your posts where relevant.
PAHWM: ATs @ 2/5NL Quote
10-27-2011 , 11:41 PM
Bet call, for sure. Checks will way too often be checked behind. Most bets will also be folded to, unless you're chopping, but a small bet might well get a crying call. I go an even hundred here, which looks like it might be a blocking bet and might well get a call.
PAHWM: ATs @ 2/5NL Quote
10-28-2011 , 12:50 AM
shoving is too much. We need to choose an amount that gets called/looked up, something not too big to force him to fold yet big enough to extrat max. value.
If Villain had bet bigger on the turn, shovelling all our chips would be a vilable option, but that small bet on the turn makes me think villain has KJ and will find a fold with 4 to a straight on the board where you could easily have Ax .

$200-$220 seems right to me.
PAHWM: ATs @ 2/5NL Quote
10-28-2011 , 01:43 PM
Think for a couple of seconds like you don't know what to do because you missed your flush draw and then bet something simple like $200 or $200+whatever you have in your hand. It's a pretty good board to bluff, some people will recognize that it's scary and a draw missed and will call with a set/two pair and some people will call simply because they are unable to fold a set/two pair.
PAHWM: ATs @ 2/5NL Quote
10-28-2011 , 06:53 PM
Bet small, no more than 100 ainec
PAHWM: ATs @ 2/5NL Quote
10-28-2011 , 06:56 PM
To elaborate- unless you have knowledge that villain is a spewy drooler, he is not calling a PSB on the river without an ace. We have already established he is a TOM
PAHWM: ATs @ 2/5NL Quote
10-28-2011 , 08:37 PM
I'm going to be that dick that says pumping money into this flop is less than optimal.

Setsy = GOAT in this forum
PAHWM: ATs @ 2/5NL Quote
10-28-2011 , 10:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by quesuerte
I'm going to be that dick that says pumping money into this flop is less than optimal.

Setsy = GOAT in this forum
I am afraid to ask....
PAHWM: ATs @ 2/5NL Quote
10-28-2011 , 10:19 PM
Greatest Of All Time.

A bit over the top, if you ask me. ;P
PAHWM: ATs @ 2/5NL Quote

      
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