I'd consider it in his shoes. We get valuetection from gutters and q. We can name our price for a showdown.

Also, OPs range is not as strong as GG suggested. He was closing action on both streets.

On the other hand, that range includes a lot of ace queen and some ace eight and sets. We look very strong and I'm not sure that many queens call.

We might have a better shot of getting called by a queen on the river after failing to bet the ace.

I certainly would never bet so big with kk or kq as villain.

Think general consensus is to call can we get the next action?

We're playing 1/3 NLHE

Hero has been playing a standard TAG game. Has huge stack of about $1400 have won a monster pot with the nut flush about half an hour ago. Has a tight image.

Villain is a young guy in his 20's. We stacked him earlier in the night when Hero open raised with AK in EP and Villain called with KQo. Flop had a king on it. He has done well since then and has doubled up.

Effective stack size is about $600

OTTH

Villain raises to $15 UTG
4 callers.
Hero is dealt AQ in the BB
$79 in the pot.

Your action?
***************

AP hero calls.

6 players to the flop
Pot is $90
Q83

Hero is first to act. Your move?
**************

AP hero checked.
Villain bet $50
Everyone folded around back to me.
Your action?
*****************

AP Hero calls.

The turn is
Q83A
Pot is $190

Your action?
***********

AP Hero checks. Villain bets $125

Your action?
*************

AP Hero calls the $125

Pot is $440

River is another 8
so the board is now Q83A8

Your action?

Check/Call any bet size. Do not see the merit in betting, unlikely V puts us on any 8x combos unless 8x would have been a flush draw OTT (suits not mentioned).

Everyone will say check, just get to the final decision point already.

AP Hero checks.

Villain jams AI for $400

Your action?

Fold to the jam

If the range below is reasonable based on your read of the V, it's a call. Since you didn't mention the suit of the river 8, likely can eliminate KQs/QJs, thus leaning toward a fold.

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 8d3hQcAh8s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 55.56% 33.33% 22.22% { AA, QQ, 88, AQs, KhQh, QhJh, AQo }
SB 44.44% 22.22% 22.22% { AcQd }

Are we giving V A8s?

Gross. This is probably a fold, especially given samo's info, but I'm not thrilled with it. From my computer, I fold, but I'd love to be at the table for this one.

I think he can have a spewed out AK here at times. He could be hoping to be heroed by AA88Q. But at the same time, I don't think he has KQ much. MAYBE qj occasionally, but very few players bluff a hand that strong.

A bluff here would be kind of nuts by him. But it really depends how he thinks. On one hand, our range was kind of strong on the flop, but it keeps getting less likely we are nutted. QQ didn't 3bet pre. 88 down to one combo. A8 very few combos, especially if it must be suited. There's an outside chance we fold 33 pre. AQ, a bit less likely since the A came (and might fold). And all of these hands would have to have check called to the river. Couldn't OP have made a tough call on the turn with just a Q?

And, of course, a lot of his monster hands are blocked up, but it is easier to have AA or QQ for him.

So, I think that the fancy math approach is very likely a call.

In 1/3, I'd have to know that the guy was super aggro to call. Not many people bet $400 otr as a bluff. I'd wager there are more Vs who check back AQ here than fire a $400 bluff. You're banking on that, or him going crazy with AK. Neither is very common.

Lol, realized my mistake as soon as I left the office. Thought for sure it would be a math mistake, not a lol combo count. Redid and also came to an EV of $24.60 on the turn.

Interestingly enough, if we give even the very tight range of AA/QQ/AQ, the river becomes close to another very high variance sigh puke call. I'll let someone else confirm the EV calc, but I have another extremely thin EV result of like $10 or so (chances of math being right << fiddyfiddy). However, that is assuming he plays AA vs QQ vs AQ exactly the same way (and you could definitely argue AQ might get MUBSy some of the time). So I have no problem with a fold, although those with expanded ranges (such as him somehow having AK or air in his range on the flop) should be questionable about folding.

But for me it still goes back to the flop. We have no clue what betsizes we were about to face, all OOP, and are often risking a ****load of chips with a hand that is unlikely to improve for a very small reward (i.e. RIO) even though we more-or-less had our nut runout. Things get even worse if betsizes / stacks were setup so that we were forced to call on one street but then forced off our hand on a later street (which is kinda what is almost happening here on the river). And in the chopping case (which makes up a big percentage of his range), if anyone is getting owned it's us (like we could easily be here folding the river).

GcluelessNLnoobG

This is the most valuable and +ev increasing post in this thread.

I believe those 4 combos are out.

KhQh/QhJh would be neat bluff hands, though the V doesn't sound that sophisticated. Could be wrong.

Let's track how the nuts changed during the hand.

Preflop nuts were AA. V can have, but Hero is unlikely to have. V is rep'ing the nuts here.

Flop nuts were QQ. Both V and Hero can have. V more likely than H as frequently H will 3b with QQ. V is rep'ing the nuts or a very strong 2nd place hand (e.g. [KK+, AQ]).

Turn nuts is back to AA. Only V can have it here. Again, V is rep'ing the nuts here. Note that QQ is the effective nuts as H is extremely unlikely to have AA. While his line is consistent (having the nuts), he can be semibluffing with many other hands here, or he could be just outright bluffing here.

River nuts is now 88. V largely cannot have this hand. Hero certainly can. V's shove here is rep'ing a very strong hand but not the nuts. He may feel invulnerable with his non-nut strong hand.

Frequently, when the nuts change street to street and V's betting never seems to adjust, it indicates that V is polarized. Not many V's will frequently merge ranges here.

Given how scary this river is, I don't see any evidence so far that V will run a 3-street bluff here (which is what would be required for V to have any pure bluffs).

What are the hands that V could be merging with? [AQ, AK, KK, KQ] Seems unlikely that V will run this hard of a line including the big bet OTR with these hands which have excellent showdown value, and are vulnerable to Hero's range.

Could it be AQ? This is an interesting one here. There are 4 combos that V can have. V might know he's blocking both A8 and Q8. But since H did not raise OTF or OTT, he shouldn't have Q8 here very often. V's line is consistent with these hands.

Pot sizes are screwed up in the HH. OTR its $440 and V moves in for $410. Pot to Hero is $850 and its $410 to call, for a final pot of $1260. Hero is getting 2.07:1, needing 32.5% equity to call.

Assume that V can have AA and QQ (1 combo each) and AQ (4 total combos).
(-410)*(2/6) + (1260/2)*(4/6) = +283.3

I changed my mind. We'd have to discount V's AQ holdings to just 1 combo and assume that V never spews for this to be -EV.

We should call.

Lapi, I think you're math is wrong regarding what we win in the chopping case: we take back all the bets that were put in on the river and just split the $440 in the pot. If I've done the math right, it works out to a whopping EV of $10 (which makes folding fine as he MUBSY checks back AQ some of the time). <<fiddyfiddy chance I've done the math right.

Gno?G

No. Try again.

Once the $$$ goes into the pot, its not your's anymore. Its the pot's.

Since poker is a game of incomplete information, we have to update our decision process with new information at each decision point.

I know you really really want V to have the nuts all the time, but we cannot collapse his range down to [AA,QQ,AsQs] until we actually can based on the information available.

I'll let browni or anyone else confirm, but I'm pretty sure the EV calc on the river against AA/QQ/AQ (assuming all shove) is:

(-$410)*(2/6) + ($440/2)*(4/6) = $10ish.

I'm not going to take a hard line on it since I've already managed to do a trivial combo counting error in this thread. But I would recommend not taking a hard line yourself.

GcluelessEVcomputingnoobG

I take it back, you are right.

Board: Qc 8h 3s Ah 8d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.333% 00.00% 33.33% 0 2.00 { AcQd }
Hand 1: 66.667% 33.33% 33.33% 2 2.00 { AA, QQ, AQs, AQo }

Hero's EV is $419.

Your EV number is confusing to me (you're stating it in confusing terms in my opinion), but as long as we both think a call on the river against a range of AA/QQ/AQ (with all parts of this range shoving the river) is ~breakevenish, then we're on the same page.

Now whether AQ plays it exactly the same as AA/QQ 100% of the time is debatable, and thus a fold is reasonable against this range.

But if you think the range can be wider than that, then you're probably forced into the call camp (although I guess this depends on how much more better hands vs lol worse hands you are adding).

GI*think*we'reonthesamepage,butnot100%sure?G

(Unless I've made another mistake...)

The final pot would be $1260.

Hero's equity in the final pot is 0.333

0.333*1260 is $419.6. So I should say, Hero's EV is $419.6-$410 = $9.6

What if we throw in AK for V, which I think is possible although GG disagrees?

@ Lapi

I think we're finally on the same page (regarding the river). Page 6, that's not too bad?

GbutI'mjusttrollingG

Would be closer to a call if we assume a couple of AKs hoping to pickup equity on the turn.

However, let's not forget he led into 5 players on the flop. I can't buy that configuration, imho.

Aside from the Q, you guys do realize how dry this flop is? One player had checked and there are four behind. Nobody thinks V will take a stab with AK? I absolutely know players who will do it. Plus, we know nothing about the other four. Heck, they could be four GGs and every one of them will fold everything but two pair or a set.

V has no reason to believe H is as strong as two pair on the turn, and definitely not on the river. Now, V might show up with AA or QQ or AQ, but I honestly think he could have AK -- at least a combo or two.