How much effective stacks remaining now?

Call.

Call. No reason to raise or fold.

V started the hand with $600 so I think he's got $410 left.

I probably also call at this point.

FWIW, how are we loving life at the moment? Was dude cbetting his airballed AK into eleventeen flop opponents and then bet it again on the turn even though we called this bone dry flop (what worse hand is he expecting to get called by)? At this point, we don't have all that much more than a bluffcatcher considering there's very few worse "value" hands he could be playing this way, which is pretty concerning since he shouldn't be showing up with too many bluffs by now unless he's a maniac.

Gnotexactlylovinglifeatthispoint,butthat'smeG

What is Villain's range here as played?

What is Hero's equity against that range?

Well, I already gave villain a very tight flop range of AA/KK/QQ/KQ thanks to betting into the world. Which of those hands continues on the turn? KK has no reason to and neither does KQ (most would check to get to showdown on drawless boards, no?). If he somehow gets here with AK/JJ/etc., even that often checks. So the way I see it, unless he's actually a multi-barrelling maniac, we're often drawing ~dead on the turn, which actually means it's probably a check/fold rather than a call.

ETA: Missed AQ, my bad, but it doesn't change things much.

Gdoyouseeitmuchdifferently?G

Board: Qc 8d 3h Ah
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.292% 56.01% 14.29% 345 88.00 { AcQd }
Hand 1: 29.708% 15.42% 14.29% 95 88.00 { AA, QQ, AQs, KQs, AQo, KQo }

Lol at KK shutting down here. He'd have to be as bad as you.

Board: Qc 8d 3h Ah
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 77.841% 67.84% 10.00% 597 88.00 { AcQd }
Hand 1: 22.159% 12.16% 10.00% 107 88.00 { QQ+, AQs, KQs, AQo, KQo }

With 77.8% of the equity share, I'm enjoying being in this spot. Definitely would do it again, and would recommend it to others.

4 of 5 dentists agree... having a 77.8% equity share is a good spot to be in

< ——— will be so grateful when this thread dies a neglected death

Ok, so you're obviously in the camp that thinks KK/KQ continues here. That's fine. We disagree. Am I in the minority on how I feel the opponent will typically play KK/KQ here? I'd be surprised if I was, tbh.

Secondly, I won't argue it to the death because I'll admit I'm not 100% clear on how it all works actual +EV wise, but I think the chopping AQ skews the % here in a way that gives us a false sense of security given your % you've come up with. As I say, I could be wrong on that, but it would be interesting to break down the actual $$$ EV numbers, with my gut saying it's not nearly as rosy as you think (but math could definitely prove me wrong, so I'll bow to whatever that comes up with).

ETA: Just did a quick and dirty computation (fiddyfiddy my math is right). Assuming a range of AA/QQ/AQ at this point, if the hand stopped with us calling the turn bet, we'd lose $8.50 (regardless of what came on the river). Highly doubt the bettting will stop, in which case it will be a bloodbath for us on the river (unless we hit our 2 outer against QQ). So he's gotta show up with KK/KQ/? a lot for us to get back in the positive, unless we're all planning on making a check / hero fold on the river to any reasonable bet (which I'm guessing we mostly are?).

GcluelessequitynoobG

Seems like we're stacking off with top 2 in a 2b pot for 200bb as a caller. I sure hope UTG sucks as bad as the KQo stack-off HH would indicate. Not folding. Call down. Should have 3b pre.

I'm more convinced then ever that you are trolling here if you are claiming you don't know how chopped pot equity works.

If both of you hold AQ, you are chopping the pot.

UNLESS... one of you folds.

Your equity includes the instances where you are chopping the pot.

Rank his stack off plan (in position in a HU pot) to our stack off plan.

G1,2,notclose,imoG

KK and KQs should continue on this board configuration. Those hands would be targeting a Q(or weaker Q).

Villain could easily have c-bet with AK, too. I know lots of players who do it in this spot. (And he's rarely putting Hero on AQ, until maybe we call the turn.)

Giving you the extreme benefit of the doubt, I'm going to go against what I stated earlier about not responding to posts with "trolling".

I posted my math results on this above (do you disagree?), and the fact that we're risking the turn / future river bet for winning just half the existing pot (even with AQ taking up 50% of the combos against the tight range) ain't nearly as rosy as your whoop-dee-doop percentages attempt to show (and, in fact, will prove to be a loser).

Gnotexactlysurewho'sbeingtrolledhere,tbhG

Lol. On the contrary. I feel like we exercised some demons here and can continue on more healthy than before.

It’s like when everyone yells at each other at thanksgiving, but then has a great Christmas.

I really don't know what to say. We're all free to have our opinions on what villain starts showing up with here. But we're playing a huge fricken bloated multiway eleventeen way pot for big stacks. You know what often AK/KK/KQ is in the mix at this point facing the turn bet? Never. Now, I will say that's a slight exaggeration. But that exaggeration is way more accurate than the pie-in-the-sky ranges you guys seem to be coming up with.

Ginb4OPpostsresultsandwe'regoodagainst99,ldoG

I’m mostly jk, just feel like I’ve read these same back and forth discussions with the same people a dozen times with only slightly different HH’s.
I don’t play the crotchety man role well, because I mostly just want people to enjoy themselves in this wild ride called life.

Xmymilddoseofweaksaucelibertarianphilosophysmackin themiddleofthisequitydiscussionthatihopegoescomple telyignoredtbhsmhtbh8

LOL. GG, you base every bit of advice you give on "your game." There are other games out there, and people do play differently. I know plenty of players who would have bet this flop with AK and they would have continued on the turn. I get it that your player pool would never, ever do that (but how would you know because you would have folded), but those players exist, and this guy could easily be one of them.

Heck, against the right line-up, I would have bet AK on the flop -- and I guarantee I would have bet it against you.

Everyone sucks. We know this guy dumped in 300 w a weak TP hand facing bets earlier. You just can’t ckf turn and give his range that much soundness and strength when our actual hand narrows his better hand range to just a sliver of what a 20s something live player has utg. Of course we’re beat sometimes, sometimes by AA sometimes bottom set, sometimes he has J9s, maybe. We don’t know, too strong of a hand to fold yet. If he fires off an all in on certain rivers you can take pause and consider the numbers there. Not yet.

Well in that case, I'll leave it up to OP to decide on how everyone's ranging is cuz he's the one playing in the game.

GhowwedoingsofarOP?G

You’re calculations are wrong. Not going to post them because it’s an easy enough exercise, but if you show how you got your -$8.50 figure I’ll help you.

You’re at least right that if his range is only AA/QQ/AQ we should fold due to RIO, but he’s going to have other hands sometimes.

I don't understand what you mean. The turn is heads up and villain is in position and he has just been checked to. We're not ranging villain on ONLY those hand but they should be in our range assessment.

If you were villain I know that you would have played the hand much differently. But assume that on the turn you ARE villain and hold either KK or KQs. As played what range are you putting hero on that you would slow down on the turn? What range do you put hero on that the A improves his hand?

Here's my attempt:

AA (1 combo) we're drawing dead and lose $125.

QQ (3 combos) we're on a ~4% draw to hit our 2 outer.

AQ (4 combos) we win half of existing pot.

1/8 * -$125 = -$15.63
3/8 * 0.96 * -$125 = -$45.00
3/8 * 0.04 * ($125 + $190) = $4.75
4/8 * (190 / 2) = $47.50

For an EV of -$8.38. This is assuming the AA/QQ/AQ range, and obviously I'm not factoring in what happens on the river (which is obviously a bloodbath for us against this range).

ETA: Also assuming he bets all those combos 100% of the time on the turn (which is admittedly not always the case, but not really here nor there and actually only becomes a lot more important when you start expanding his range to include KK/KQ which obviously don't bet 100% of the time on the turn).

ETA#2: The only place I could see myself being out-to-lunch here is in the description of what we win with the chopping AQ case. I'm pretty sure we only win half of the current $190 pot (and don't include his $125 bet in the calculation). If you want to take me to task, my guess is that would be the only place.

GfiddyfiddychanceI'vedonemathincorrect,butno?G

And I would ask: As villain, what worse hand are you thinking is going to call? Yes, it's HU now, but villain realizes that hero has seen him raise preflop UTG and cbet into eleventeen opponents. What, he's putting us on middle pair and protecting against a 2 - 5 outer? We can't be sitting here with a set? Or exactly what we have? The flop is bone dry, we didn't call the flop with a draw.

And just in general, how many players in your deepstack game now happily open the betting when checked to with a biggish turn bet to put stacks in play when they don't have TP or a draw? Doesn't 99% of the poker population (most of whom hate playing huge pots and are MUBSy as ****) just check back their extremely showdownable hand and hope they get to showdown for cheap?

GcluelessNLnoobG

You’re math seems fine actually, you just counted 3 QQ combos instead of 1.

My process here without an equity calculator is to take the weighted average to find our equity.

(4*.5+1*.05) = roughly 34%

Now the EV calculation, although knowing our equity vs pot odds is enough to know EV is positive.

.34*(125*2+190-125) = $24.6

Obviously if we’re not allin RIO is a issue and EV is going to be negative against that range.