I agree with these guys: The small bet sizing makes a call favorable. Had he fired a little more (half pot or more?), you can probably find a check-push and light a fire under him, but here he's giving you all the reason in the world to see the river, regardless of results. Obviously we like the club, but an ace or seven would also feel pretty good. Looking ahead, if we brick the river and he bets again, I don't think we need to get fancy in our first hand at the table. (And if you did so, I hope you were at least able to leverage your crazy table image. ^^)

Call. You will lose most of the time but he is giving you ridiculous odds and you probably don't have any FE on a raise/shove.

This is where having a better read on villain makes a huge difference. Is he trying to control the pot size and will fold to a raise or is he trying to string you along and won't? If he trying to control the pot then shoving is fine, he will fold enough and you will draw out enough. If he isn't then take the great odds and bet into him when the flush hits. But if he is the sort who doesn't like to fold then you have the wrong sort of hand and should be aiming to set mine him a lot rather then play drawing hands.

Allow me to join the echo chamber and advocate for just calling. To be honest when I first saw the club hit I was thinking about a check raise given his sizing but a lot of these players just won't give up with an overpair so I think calling is best.

So, like others have mentioned, I felt this action was more on the confused-suck-bet-that's-not-folding spectrum, rather than the looking-for-information-so-I-can-fold spectrum, but realized it could be either. I'm sure someone could make the mathematical argument for shoving, but whatever. Also, I preferred a scare card hitting vs purely picking up equity to go for a bluff raise here -- but that's a personal preference I guess. Anyway, I call....

Hero (EP3): A 7

Fold x 2, Hero r $15, fold, Villain (HJ - $285) 3b $30, fold x 4, Hero c $30

Flop ($64): 9 7 6

Hero x, Villain b $30, H c $30

Turn ($117): 3

H x, V b $30, H c $30

River ($177): T

H ???

I think it's worth giving shoving a try here. The board is scary. It's difficult for him to put us on a hand - we're actually somewhat unlikely to have an 8 here as hands like 98s and 87s should have been more aggressive earlier, but it's also hard for us to have a hand which check calls twice and then needs to bluff the river. We could plausibly have stuff like T9s and TT in addition to 8s. I think the bluff is kind of thin, we need it to work 52.5% of the time, I'm expecting to get looked up maybe 40-45%. Definitely possible I'm wrong and it's -EV.

This river is going to scare him a lot. His JJ-AA will likely check and even his TT might either check or bet really small. I would check/call the river because if he bets it is either 88 (a lot less likely) or AK. I wouldn't advocate river C/R very often but this is the one time that your opponent could let go of AA or KK. I would rather C/C the river though.

I think the open shove gets called a lot but a C/R if the Villain uses small enough sizing (as Villain has been using the entire hand) is superior to an open shove.

Your posting there doesn't make sense to me.

You just got done saying he'll check back AA/KK (which I agree with) so whether he will fold it to a x/r isn't relevant, he's not betting it. If you want to bluff him off those hands you can't rely on a bet.

btw, for anyone reading this not sure about shoving, try to put us on a bluff other than A7cc/A9cc. It's hard to do. So for people incapable of reading hands, I'm hoping the board is scary enough to dislodge them, and if the guy can read hands, he'll struggle to come up with things he can beat.

I know people were advocating a turn call based on pot odds and I can see the merits of doing so, however, I think we should stick by our original plan of check raising turn.

Let's think about what hands he can have that would take this line.. I'd almost guarantee you at best he has a one pair hand. I think most hands stronger would bet much more for protection, even if he has a straight, because he doesn't want to get outdrawn, especially considering that the flush draw came. This looks like a one pair hand trying to set its price for a river showdown.

Anyways, I'd check raise the turn for like ~150 and obviously calling off if villain shoves. I think villain is going to fold here a lot, but if called, I would probably be check folding most rivers unless I improved to a flush or a 7.

As played though, I think we need to be betting here. Anywhere from 150 - all in is fine. Either that or check fold. Please don't ever check call this river.

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Grunch - late to the party

Ship river.

Regarding preflop, A7s is too light to be opening from EP when the maximum effective stack is 115 BB's and there are stacks as little as 50 BB's. As boring as it is, high card equity is your best bet in EP.

Flop call standard. Turn is interesting because of his dumb sizing but I would just take the odds offered. You don't really know if he has a fold button or not even though he sized so stupidly low.

River is a great card to bluff. It's very very difficult for him to hero you off with KK/QQ on this board given the action unless he's just a massive calling station. T9/98/87/86 all got there and it's very hard to have a bluff besides a combo like your exact hand.

I fold preflop. It sounds like this is a passive preflop table, so limping in might not be horrendous. But overall it sounds like no one is paying off anyone right now, plus we'll be OOP (where getting paid off and playing postflop is so much more difficult), and with so many still to react it's not impossible that someone raises. I also don't like opening this early as far too often we just end up isolating ourselves OOP against a dominating hand.

ETA (preflop): As played, I fold to the reraise. Yeah, we only got minraised so we're getting ok immediate odds; big deal, we're simply not going to flop two pair / trips / flush enough. Otherwise, our RIO and IO both suck, and we're OOP to boot without initiative.

ETA (flop): Yet another reason to fold preflop even though we only got minraised. I fold here again, noting that I will be folding the best hand here some of the time, but this is part of the reason we shouldn't be playing OOP to a 3better where it's highly unlikely we'll smash the flop (as opposed say to where we could ~likely setmine preflop).

ETA (turn): I would just call. We're getting good odds and could perhaps also bluff some 4-to-a-straight cards. But I don't hate making a move here with all our equity plus some FE; if my opponent is very aware of my nit image, I'm fine with a move.

ETA (river): Best scare card in the deck, and our hand really reads as 88. I'd probably do like a 2/3 PSB here.

GbutthatmakesforaboringPAHWM,obviouslyG

I agree with almost all that Johnny said.

However, does anyone like a CR on the flop/lead all non-paint turns line? OP said this table was tight, so we should have a clear range advantage on this board. Seems like a good spot for a 3 barrel bluff on good runouts but maybe that would be spew.

Thoughts?

If we're continuing on the flop, I think our hand is too strong to need to turn into a bluff, especially since he'll likely check back his whiffed AK/etc on the turn.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Yah I don’t see a reason to x/r into an uncapped range that 3! us pre and c-bet flop.

We’ll see plenty of free rivers versus his AK (if he even 3bets that pre) and turn will be dynamic enough for our hand that we can decide when to x/f, x/c or x/r with better information then we currently have.

Ok cool thanks.

So I hit my scare card, and as planned, I go all-in for a slight overbet....

Hero (EP3): A 7

Fold x 2, Hero r $15, fold, Villain (HJ - $285) 3b $30, fold x 4, Hero c $30

Flop ($64): 9 7 6

Hero x, Villain b $30, H c $30

Turn ($117): 3

H x, V b $30, H c $30

River ($177): T

H b $195 all-in....

Lol

One of the reasons I do a smaller bluff on the river is because I don't think there is much difference between like the times a $100 bet is called and a $195 bet is called (especially on this type of board) So when betting for value, just shove for maximum value; and when bluffing, bet the smaller amount (so long as it is still a relatively painful amount to call in terms of $$$) so we don't have to succeed nearly as often.

GimoG

While the hand was somewhat of a setup, the initial raise PFR paved the way for stacks going in.

Obviously as a fold you lose no money, but I imagine this hand would have played very differently as a limp.

I think there is a noticeable difference in calling frequencies on the river when he has KK/QQ and you shove $195 or bet $100 however.

Yeah, limping would have been interesting option, as this was a table dynamic/stack-spread that it might be optimal for, but alas. I still think raising wasn't horrendous, but I won't defend it to death either.

River, I think GGs thinking on bet size splitting is interesting, but I tend to KISS & just apply max leverage vs OPs by wagering a full PSB+ in spots like this. Keeps me balanced in future spots vs anyone semi-thinking and/or paying attention to the hand as well (though probably not a huge consideration here).

Preflop. If the table looks like a passive donk fest then limp, otherwise fold. There are lineups I play in where people limp **** like 29s and they will have huge reverse implied odds.

As played, I’m sorry but I don’t see A7s being profitable against an a minraise 3 bet at 100 BB’s. I don’t care what odds we are getiting when we have reverse implied odds. Other than the 1-2% of the time we flop trip 7’s or a flush draw and hit, what are we hoping for? Maybe I’m a huge nit or just not good enough, but I don’t see it being profitable for me. If we at least have history and know how to exploit the villain it might be different.

As played call turn, he looks like he either has a monster like 99 exactly or he whiffed with AK/AQ.

As played check river.

As for the blufff, I think it’s -EV relative to checking but it’s probably fine. I’ve just come to accept that even though it’s boring poker, people don’t drive to the casino to fold in a pot after they 3 bet, particularly mawg businessmen. If he was an old dude might be worth a shot.

I also think we have legitimate showdown value here. Other than 99 I don’t see villain playing too much value like this.