I didn't give him 16 combos of JTo, I gave him 4 of JTs and 3 of JTo. AK he probably calls, AQ he probably folds would be my guess. But even if he has AK he may fear that I have QQ or 88 or TJ, so he might find a fold sometimes, I don't think it's 100% a call. V is probably not folding JTo on the button pre ever this deep.

I feel like a player who wouldn't bet AK OTR here also never 3b JTo pre, and maybe only 2 combos of JTs.

There really aren't many people who 3bet JTo pre. JTs is a 50-50 proposition too IMO.

I can also accept the idea that a particular player would not be betting AK in that spot either. The trouble is that you don't know if your opponent is that kind of player. So perhaps when you are saying that he's betting 4 out his 9 AK combos or whatever, you re might as well be assigning a a percentage on the chunk of the TAG player pool which does so. In other words, you may say "I think 20% of regs would bet AK on that spot" so you give him 20% of AK or whatever.

Sure, but by the time we get to the river he still has all 4 combos of JTs in his range.

I still think AK is either a check back, very small bet to induce a bluff from a missed combo draw, or a relatively small bet ($300-400) that can get called by all 2 pairs. A shove is really only getting called by sets and AK here. I don't think a shove with AK is terrible to get someone off a chop (though i'd be more likely to call with AK than 88), but I don't think it's a slam dunk either and shoving AK is going to value own yourself sometimes, and value owning yourself for $1800 with 2p seems kind of bad.

V needs to have all combos of AK (or close to it) shoving river to make this a call, and/or hardly ever having JT . It was a close one for sure, I had to think about it for a while.

How... if he's not 3b JTs everytime pre, which seems likely and which is exactly what OvertlySexual & others have stated, then he can't have 4 combos to get to the river with.

Because he's repping a nutted hand, where JT is the nuts, so I'm giving him all 4 combos of that. We're not often 360bb deep effective with him on the button and me OOP with nobody in between, so I don't know what his JTs 3b frequency would be in this spot. Since I have zero sample size in that regard, I need to make some assumptions. JTs is one of the best hands to 3b button this deep, so I don't think it is a stretch. I think we can give him a few combos of JTo that include a heart. I've definitely 3b worse on the button when deep...

WJ, we need to funnel his range from preflop to river, not the other way around. It's one thing if you think he 3b JTs all the time, but another to all of a sudden throw that all in there because of the action on the river.

JTo make a terrible 3b. Even if V was expanding his 3b range, there are so many better combos to choose. We should not be 3b that pre ourselves. Also, you described V as a straightforward TAG, saying he 3b between 3-5%. If we make a value only range of 5% of hands, that's TT+/AQ+/and KQs.

Well we can’t rule out him 3b those hands when it’s part of the nutted range that he’s repping on the river. Is it less likely than QQ+? Yeah probably. His button 3b range is wider than his 3-5% overall 3b range from all positions, so keep that in mind. Maybe he just thinks I fold to too many 3b OOP so he throws in some connected relative trash on button once in a while. I don’t know. But I’m not ruling it out.

This is faulty logic. If you don't think he 3bets JTs 100% you don't get to go back and change your assumption once he takes the bet bet shove line. This is MUBS and changing your initial assumptions to fit your later hypothesis. He either 3bet JTs 100% or he doesn't, the specific line taken in this hand should have no impact on that ranging analysis. This is a misunderstanding of conditional probability

Not ruling something out doesn't normally mean that this is something we assign a 50% probability to it. It sounds like something he does 5% of the time or 10% of the time.

Moreover, if he 3bets JTs, why can't he be 3betting 9hTh, 6h7h, 5h6h, 4h5h? And if those hands reach the river, isn't it more likely they have to bluff all in?

In fact Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h might be better bluffs because they have the blockers to top set and are unlikely to be good.

But it's irrational to forget all of those hands that make better 3bets and assign him JTo.

The point is not to rule it out the point is that in ranging him here we should be giving him something less than 4 combos of JTs because we all agree we don't think he 3bets JTs preflop with 100% frequency.

I also doubt he ever 3bets JTo ever here and if he does then we should be reevaluating our assumptions about his 3bet range. If he sometimes 3bets JTo he is certainly going to be 3betting other offsuit broadways more often which should change the combinatorics on our earlier hand analysis.

Again, I can’t specifically define his button 3b range in this spot because it doesn’t happen very often (or hardly ever) in the first place with this stack depth, table positions, fish in hand, etc. I don’t think he would be piling it in with this kind of sizing with draws on the flop and turn hoping I fold. It just doesn’t happen at 2/5 very often when this deep.

V also has to assume JT is a big part of my flop calling range and bluffing turn with a draw is almost suicidal because he would get blown off his equity facing a jam. I was planning to c/r flop and turn depending on his sizing but he bet so big that it just felt like he had it here. The question is what is "it"? On the turn, AK may be in that category. By the river after a $350 call on the turn, it's a little less attractive to pile it in there. How often do you see $350 turn bets this deep without a very strong hand?

I’m never folding this hand for 200bb. For almost 400, it’s a lot more dicey to call it off. Most players just don’t have it in them to put in $1800 without the effective nuts, and especially as a bluff

For the record, I don't even know if folding is the right play here. It's super close IMO.

You can’t. If you have 4 combos it implies that each suited variant is 3b at 100% freq, I think OP might be thinking that all 4 suited variants still reach the river. But that doesnt mean 4 combos reach the river, since if we assign a probability to each suited variant, well unless it’s 1, total combos cant be 4. ie 50% x 4 suited variants = 2 combos although he has all 4 suits otr (isnt rly relevant) but maybe that’s what he’s thinking, i dunno

Axhh is a horrible bluff candidate otr (ie blocking folding range and not blocking calling range/nuts), and Axhh shouldn’t really be barreling turn, doesnt make too much sense

Having blockers to top set is irrelevant, OP rarely has AA given action

Yea sure, next time you're facing a 250BB bet with 20 combinations of the nuts available and you don't have one, go ahead and lean on your thesis here and see how well it turns out. I bet Villain had the same thought before he put in his shove, ya know, with the mortal nuts. KK my ass.

Outliers are outliers and you better adjust your thinking to what your opponent is capable of+trying to accomplish or you go broke, sometimes literally.

I don’t understand what you are trying to say here. Your comments don’t address the bolded part of my post at all. What does not changing your preflop range have to do with villains thought process with kk or outliers?

You know what else, the more I think about that 350 turn bet, the more I am convinced hero was up against JT. I probably am a little biased bc I know the players here, but just think about how much easier it is for V to bet that much+expose his stack with JT>QQ/KK plus all the combos he unblocks to capture max value from ... AK, QQ, 88, KQs Axhh, Kxcc, 88, other combo draws just picked up outs. 65->135->350->1250 against a non fish on a bway board? gtfoh. No credit given for cool stuff, sorry. No credit given for AK. Hero owned his soul.

Pretty sure they do.

I'm slightly hesitant to post here, because I'm not very good, but I try to learn as much as I can, and criticism of my posts is as good a way as any for me to improve...so on to my post...

I read all 8 pages of this thread. I never really saw any posts where someone asks what the V thinks the H has, at least not explicitly.

So what is going through the V mind? The ranges have been gone over ad nauseam, so I won't rehash...but what does H think V thinks will call his jam by the river? I would think from the V perspective, that if he had any combo of JT that wasn't specifically , then that hand would have awoken on the turn and raised. I could see JT simply calling the turn, because card removal would put the best possible V hand @ AT, and anything weaker than that might play the hand differently.

So from the V perspective, there are is only 1 combo of JT that doesn't raise, and since AA has been removed based on PF action, he can at best give QQ, but I agree about QQ being a 4b pre, so that leaves 88 as the next best hand H could have.

V should shove because if he thinks H has 88, he's calling any bet, and if H had some sort of combo single pair + sd/fd, he would fold to any bet, so why go small? Maybe I'm repeating what everyone else here said. This was a very interesting hand, this post was very insightful, and made for very good reading. Thxs.

I think I missed this post earlier but this was pretty much exactly what I thought at the time.

You're going a bit too far with ruling out hands hero could have. Best thing for you to do is just give V a few different combos like JT and AK and QQ and KK here and write out all the remotely possible combos available for hero against each of those hands. There really are a ton, so don't rule out some very strong turn ckcs including JT sometimes.

Then put yourself in Vs shoes, and you'll have your answers. When you have JT, there are a world of worse hands available to call a big bet and with that you can comfortably size up (in addition to having the nuts). When you have QQ, there are still a large number of hands available that might call, AK becomes a very frequent occupant in calling ranges and may be less sensitive to sizing than you might think (hero even said as much upthread that AK is more of a call facing a shove). With KK and AK, things get a little murky with JT/QQ/88 fully available for hero and then the blocking impact your hand has on river calling ranges overall.

^ Yeah I agree he shoves J10s at a much higher frequency otr than KK, J10s doesnt block any of H’s bluff catching ranges or calls. But yeah i wouldnt say he only shoves J10s here, he could be lying about KK but at the same time if he did have it i wouldnt be surprised. If he said AK i would call complete bullshit on him though. H did own V’s soul, too face-up against someone who could get into his head

In post #82, I inquired from the V pov, specifically AK 4bet frequency pre, and pair/FD combos.