We’re never good if he calls. Are we turning our hand into a bluff? Are we trying to get him to fold....what, literally exactly QQ?

I would unless you are planning to fold to any bet. I don’t want to give AK/AQ free check backs and I’m assuming he will 3bet you with every combo of AQ. If he doesn’t 3bet AQ and you think he’ll fold AK to a complete brick like this river then sure xf.

River is trash if he bets but most likely not folding unless he gives off a tell, he can be vbetting worse and even TAGs have their spew moments. Though being this deep i suspect he’ll have an extremely low spaz freq. It’s a huge disaster when he vbet AK/AQ and you fold, and given the action and both FD bricking, with you having worse hands to call and being capped, him vbetting AK/AQ isnt 0 here. He also has some bluffs here tho they should be minimal

I’d only consider folding if he just jams this river, i am almost certain the reg never ever jams AQ here or AK. Mostly just AA/KK/J10s and the occasional airball

I mean, he certainly should be value betting aces up here

To get called by what? My range to get to the river this way should be combo draws (which all missed everything on the river), 88/QQ, and AK/AQ. i think AK may be a bet in his spot, AQ is not, KQ is definitely not, but AK also has a lot of showdown value and he wouldn't want to value own himself against 88 or QQ which is my most likely holdings to call a river bet unless we're chopping with AK, so I think it's pretty close for him to be betting AK or not. Normally it would seem to be a slam dunk when the river bricks, but you have to think how much it would really suck to dust off almost 400bb with two pair value owning yourself against a set (if he jams, that is)....if he has AK he has to be worried that I have 88/QQ after calling $350 on the turn

IMO, if I am in V's shoes and it was checked to me on this river, he should be betting a smaller amount ($200-400) that can get crying called by worse 2p, or betting extremely small ($100-150) to possibly induce a jam from a missed draw. Theoretically, it seems weird that my only calls here vs a jam are sets and maybe AK (which I would be more likely to call than 88, but then I'm sure he'd show up with QQ), but at the same time, what kind of TAGish 2/5 reg bluffs off $1800 in this fashion with total air? I haven't tried to do any math on frequencies of calling different sized bets, just thinking through this stuff in my head cuz obv I don't have hours to make a decision in-game.

I dunno, kind of a cool hand I think. Maybe even cooler if the river was a T/J club or heart so I could turn my hand into a weird merge/bluff where I can get called by worse sometimes but still get better hands to fold, lol. But here we are! With a lonely 3s on the river...

it's a really interesting river spot.

If I was villain I would not be betting two pair on the river because the only hands we beat by that point are missed draws and worse pair/two pair hands. Maybe I'd bet AK as the strongest 2 pair, hoping to get value from AQ and KQ hands but I'm not betting AQ or KQ

Villain may call a smallish bet with Ak AQ KQ type hands if he thinks we're betting whiffed draws so there's a case for a $300/350 type river lead but..we have to then fold to a shove because I just can't see him shoving over us with a hand we're ahead of

a question I'm not sure of is whether villain bluffs river if checked to. imo deep at 2/5, not many villains have the stones to do this, particularly middle aged guys who we've never witnessed getting ool before.

I'm not convinced about what's best here at all but I think I like

bet small/fold > check/fold > check call > bet/call > shove

I'd check again and eval river sizing

You’re all invited to the Aria 2/5 games. C’mon down!

wj are you seriously not 4b QQ pre?

oh my God, you're so awesome!

TBF nice post.

Sometimes, not always. 4b QQ this deep can’t be great cuz if we get called postflop isn’t going to be great when not flopping a set. I’d rather 4b a suited connector or AK at this stack depth, QQ has plenty of value to call with.

Thread makes v sound like he isnt capable of owning you by bluffing in this spot, by thinking outside the box or even going for value otr w/ AK or worse. If you really have no respect for this guy is there a reason we cant just blocker bet fold really small otr?

The problem with all of his value bets on the river is that he doesn't have many bluffs -if any, unless he's good enough to 3barrel small Ahxh, 7h8h, 8h9h type of hands as a bluff. If he is and he does have those types of bluffs, he should be jamming AK along with his sets. If not, he should be betting smaller all of his range.

Well said.

Even if V complete enough to be otr w a range other than what we think he has now, he still has to get there with it enough and have the stones to execute it too. Poker is hard.

This guy can abuse you really bad 3b a wide range of hands IP if you're only going to 4b KK+/AK.

Read what I said again

A non-answer 'sometimes not always' yes I read that.

$1800 deep a TAG reg is going to be 3b you pretty damn wide. I don't see how QQ is anything but an auto-4b when he's going to be defending stuff like SC's and JJ-99, and we can fold out some hands with decent equity like AJ/AT.

4b is prob a lot better than calling given limp-caller, you’re going to underrealize 3way oop and it’s a great result if you take it down pre. QQ isnt that hard to play in a 4b pot

Let’s say 65% 4b/35% call with QQ, so you could probably give me one combo of that.

Yes, I am aware that he’s going to 3b button wide. I’m still calling some percentage of the time with stronger hands and 4b weaker playable hands some percentage of the time, and in this spot occasionally turning a hand like KQ/QJ/Ax into a bluff. Every hand is different with table dynamics. I’m just saying I am not 4b QQ 100% of the time because that’s what you asked. .

Let's say the hand goes like this:

What do you do? In LLSNL, most people's ranges are pretty nutted in that spot. Do you shove 340BB deep with QQ? Do you call so you can go to a flop with an SPR of 1? Do you fold the third best hand in the game? All options are unappetizing.

Here's the paradox. QQ is supposed to be 4bet for value, but in this spot in which you probably have to fold it's played as a bluff. That's a terrible thing. You don't want to be turning the top of your range into a bluff.

The combo of big stacks, large raise sizes and nutted ranges in live poker is very tricky to manage IMO. Not easy to find a good OOP 4bet strategy.

It’s not a paradox whatsoever. At the time you 4bet, you did so against a 3bet, not against a 5bet.

Um... easy fold because you're right... people's ranges are so nutted in that spot.

We're focusing on an unlikely scenario here unless V's 3bet range is like OMC condensed. We get folds & calls more often than we get 5bet. I actually do like a call here when HU because I don't think we're supposed to 4b for value here when 360bb deep, but UTG's $ is in the pot so taking this down pre would be an excellent return, so I don't hate a 4b here.

The point I am making is theoretically, bluff hands are ones we plan to let go against a raise, while value hands are ones we plan to at the very very least see a flop with, but ideally go all the way with them. If your value hand ends up being played as a bluff, then, perhaps is better to play it as a calling hand.

Let me use a concrete example. You 4bet QQ in that spot, you fold to a 5bet. You flat with KQs, you end up seeing a flop. That's incongruent. You can't play two hands in a way that leaves you closer to realizing your equity with the weakest hand rather than the stronger one.

I guess you can say you made an exploitative fold and perhaps that's the way to go, but it feels a off to me.