Ironically, I think the line you've taken is the one that is most likely to get stacked by V3 or V1 by allowing V1 to dictate the action, setting a price for both to draw to straights and 2p, and pricing yourself into paying them off instead of getting your money in while you were likely ahead.

I think you'll get quite a bit of advice not to raise simply because we can assume you lost the hand from your decision to post it, and probably to one of the minimally likely hands that we would not have wanted to raise into. However, if someone has one of those hands, you were probably going to lose it all regardless of whether you raised or not, and at least by raising you would have won the maximum against the weaker part of their ranges.

And if she folds, that's great news for you, because it's a lot easier to keep hitting the raise button with any hand you want than it is to hit TPTK with AK.

The reason I didn't raise the flop is because V1 is normally passive, ie: she check/calls rather than donks. I haven't really observed her donk before, and obviously have to keep V3 in mind.

So what kind of range are people assigning V3 here? And please don't tell me 65s because that is not in his BB multiway OOP range. V3 has to be pretty sure I have a K here.

I'm not really worried about Kx "setting her own price for two pair" (that's not even a thing). If she wants to shovel money into the pot as a 9:1 dog that's fine by me.

Pot: $330

Turn: 3 K 6 8

V3 checks
V1 bets $145
Hero calls $145
V3 folds

I think this may have been the major mistake in the hand. Not sure if I was looking at my $750 stack as $750 because of my inexperience at 2/5 rather than 150 BB's vs. a villain that can't fold top pair but I was trying to go the small ball route and get a third street of value on the river.

In hindsight, a min-raise here would have allowed for a very easy river shove if checked to (though do we call it off if she shoves?) As played, a river shove would be ~$500 (after a turn bet of $145) and I think that's just too big to get called, even by this villain. I have observed her call min-raises before so I really should have min-raised here and shoved river.

Pot: $620

River: 3 K 6 8 9

V tank checks after 30 seconds
Hero tanks for 30-45 seconds and ...

Lol what I'm saying is you can't be too thrilled about seeing a T, J or Q. Setting the price was targeted more towards straights which you conveniently left out. The leading out shouldn't scare you, it should scream jackpot. This isn't just bottom pair, this is middle pair good kicker, maybe even top pair, which might as well be the nuts to her.

And you need a better reason than "keeping him in mind". What exactly are you keeping in mind? When we have a good hand and a solid player and a fish have limped in preflop, we don't limp in as well because we're keeping him in mind, we raise to isolate. The same principle applies here. As for what his range is here? He doesn't have to believe you have a strong K as you've underrepped your hand (not a great thing to do against someone capable of making a move against weakness of you're not prepared to call down).

I'm in the raise/bet/shove camp. Hard to be behind on this flop and if we raise and the other V calls or shoves we can slow down and evaluate, but vs the donker I like a raise and fine with getting it in.

After V3 calls flop, I'd expect his range to be something like KTs+, 66 and 33. I would expect him to lead turn a lot of the time with his sets though.

After we call turn we have a little under $550 behind and $620 in the pot, right? I think in this particular spot a shove looks really strong to most rec villains, but this V sounds different, so I'm still shoving. Against a different V I might bet something like $400.

How good do we feel about the V3 profile in OP? What range do we give him PF, after the flop and after the turn?
preflop: QQ-22,suited broadways?
then
x/c flop with: QQ,JJ,66,33,Kx?
then
x/f turn with: QQ,JJ,KQ,KJ,KT?

It seems to me calling the flop locked us into calling the turn if we're not pot committed against V3, but is that results oriented thinking? on the flop would r/f against V3 and r/c against V1 have been better?

I think she'd call a shove with a big King. Unfortunately, I don't think she has that. I think she has something like TT or JJ and I don't know if she finds a call now. Idk what I'd do here as I never would have been in this spot. I'd probably do something silly like "Same bet".

The tank check is interesting though as it is normally air or a really strong hand.

Ehhh big blind and multiway with weaker players I'm going to guess he's going wider than that

I take it back. I just re read the hand with the monotone flop. I'm All In.

Man does that tank check give me a bad feeling though. Why do I feel like we ain't good here.

AP River: I have no interest in b/f against this V. Bet small to induce seems FPS. Tank check could be an attempt to slow you down or could be the river changed her hand. I would only go AllIn or a perhaps grossly nitty check behind. Counting combos is interesting because V3 should have a K often, which only leaves us with 1 for V1. Did you consider AA in game?

Unless hands like QQ or K2 are in her range and she'll call with them, I think this a check without a soulread that the river tank was an attempt to slow you down.

AP, even with V1's tendency to be sticky with 1p hands, I don't think you're going to get the remaining $500 in. I would be kinda surprised if she calls a 100bb bet now. Not saying you shouldn't just shove -- many times its still the right move -- but I'm just pointing out that this is likely not going to be called.

So. I shove and expect to be called like 20-30% of the time, and expect to be good 99% of the time.

~~~~~~

As an aside. If you play with V3 regularly, you should probably remember this hand. I think your read on him is off. If this hand is typical of his play, he's not a "decent TAG".

What is he playing out of the BB that takes this line on the given board and action? A3s, A6s, 54s, maybe a few pp. Against H, he should be semi-bluffing, and against V1, he should be trying to isolate her, and he should be raising to get you out of the pot.

I would be inclined to take more aggressive lines against him, with a wider range if he's going to call big preflop opens from OOP and then call OTF on super dry flops multiway only to fold OTT to smallish bets.

I agree regarding V3 and this was what I was trying to get at with my question about V3 range. The hand was very likely to go multi-way pre, so I can see a lot of PP, but why x/c the flop when missed?

There is one straight draw 45 and 10 J Q don't complete any of those draw as. This flop is dry and we have ourselves in a likely WAWB situation.

What? The flop is rainbow K 3 6.

Why river check AP? V1 combos if V3 had KJ:
AA,66,33,K9,K6,K3,K8,63 = 30
KQ,KJ,KT = 11

We need to either discount the first row quite a bit and/or add hands to the 2nd row. If we shove, do we expect K2 to call? K7? Would V never double barrell K9? Would V never call pre with 63? Idk, feels nitty but feels right to me.

Mr Doomed you butchered both of my posts. Point of the first one is just that V is donking out with a wide range and the board only gets worst for AK, not that it gets THAT much worst but not raising here is just criminal, mostly because we end up in situations on the river like the exact one we got. I worded it poorly. I did not mean V betting is giving herself the odds to draw to 2 pair. I meant that if V hits 2 pair hero is likely paying it off and making a big and what would have been a completely avoidable mistake. She is giving herself fine odds to draw to a straight, however.

Second post was clearly not referencing the hand in question. It references a key history hand mentioned in OP where V calls a large bet with what had to of been at best Top pair good kicker. And the board was much scarier than this one.

If this villain is stationy a shove has the highest EV. We have roughly 500 behind, so we only need to be called 50% of the time to make it more profitable than betting $200 and having it called 100%.

If she has taken some ******ed line with a set or rivered two pair, meh. We can get looked up by a ton of worse kings.

Still think we could have gotten the $$$ in sooner and more reliably if we were more aggro on the flop.

I don't check back here unless I've seen her do this before with a "made" hand (two pair plus). My bet would depend on how much of a calling station she is. If I think she'll call a shove, I shove. If not, I'll bet smaller just because she can't lay down a K to a smaller bet -- and she might raise what she perceives as weakness, although that's usually rare on the river.

I would be surprised if a shove wasn't the bet size with the highest EV against this player.

Interesting to see views for call and for raise flop.

I'm firmly in the call camp.

If we raise, V3 is going to often fold made hands including worse Kx. The raise might get value from V1, but it's really not necessary on such a dry board and with stacks so shallow. With 135 in the pot, a bet of 65, and starting stacks of 750, calling can get us to the turn and river often easily allowing us to get all-in vs. V1. If anything, a raise can wield fold equity against V3 and can stop V1 from bluffing when she does have air.

Saying that raising can get value may be accurate... but it's not the best play imo. Seems to me that calling flop is better vs. nearly all ranges. In fact, if V3 raises and V1 continues, we might even find a fold - only risk is that V3 is a total wizard and recognizes how hard it is to have a hand on this board, that V1 is a station and might call and that we might fold the best hand. Anyway, very much a side point. Point is there's very little need with these stacks and this board to raise, and we get to see how V3 reacts when we call.

Turn is an easy call for many of the same reasons imo. We're going to get to the river with less than a pot sized bet. That was the plan all along, so let's keep it going. There's also every chance that V3 peels one more with other Kx hands, and I'm not ready to force him out of the hand with a raise (and we can probably easily fold to a V3 shove).

As played... I wouldn't level yourself too much here.

V1 is a station. V1 likely has worse top pair. V1 has already punted almost $2,000.

Shove.

raise to 165 otf
200 ott
ai for 350 otr

as played shove

Eh, K63r is nearly the driest flop possible. If V3 wants to peel with < 10% equity, then yes, please, and thank you. I doubt V3 is ever planning a ninja semi-bluff with a turned flush draw 3-way with the station in the hand.

If V3 has a hand that can call and isn't best, you definitely want him to call.

Think also about stack sizes - if we were 2,000BB deep, then OK, getting the TAG V in position out of the hand with a small amount of equity may be OK because he can have extreme implied odds, and position is very valuable. But with these and even stacks a bit larger, it's just not a major consideration.

I like raising, it will get up heads up alot of the time for one, and if she has a set or two pair she will very likely re raise and it woul dmake it a easy fold. If she calls its sets up perfectly for two bets and a shov on the river.

The TAG V is in the BB. With the main V leading, he has picked up Relative Position, but does not have Absolute Position.