I had seen this thread blowing up over the last few days & didn't bother to read it. This morning I decided to & long before I got to this post by OP, I saw why it blew up & I've been guilty of the same thing.

We are suppose to be playing OP's hand with him. Therefore, we need to know everything OP knows every step of the way. So, when V flats pre, we need to know what OP is putting his range as & why. We need to know how much he's played with this guy. The one thing OP did do before the hand was tell us his image to those who were paying attention.

I'm not ripping Redskins, as I've been guilty of this. However, this thread, IMO, could have been a lot shorter & more interesting had we been inside OP's head every step of the way.

I'm still on page 5 & I hope to make it the rest of the way thru. Based on what I now know about V, I would probably fold to his flop raise, because he wouldn't flat with AA/KK & hardly every with QQ. He's got AK or JJ, because OP has said V will not be looking to raise so much OTF with QJs.

EDIT: Breezed thru the last 5 pages & the thread got great! Thought I'd see results by now & couldn't wait & since we don't have them, I'll go back thru from page 5 again.
Let's hope johnnyBuzz doesn't have to ban himself!

Having a x/c donking range is just pretty bad at any point in the hand in any hand. It's complicated to create a good strategy that revolves around x/c'ing street and donking out the next one. It seems like a pretty fishy play to me.

Would just x/jam river if he doesnt jam himself.

I agree with everything you posted and appreciate the criticism. Maybe my next pahwm will be more detailed. I'll post results tomorrow.

You would check jam if he bets?

The vast majority of the time, a hand like this posted is a hand the OP won. So I am fairly certain V had AK.

This is why we're donking river. He should have AK far more often than a FH now due to combos. By checking river, we allow him to check back his AK's a decent % of the time, but betting his better FH's 100% of the time.

I dunno if 300 into 460 is really a bomb, though it does kinda worry me.

If we're afraid to try and get value from AK's when the board pairs, why the hell are we calling flop? In hopes of getting 1 street of value, which still leaves us very -EV for our flop call. Only hand we're really beating according to you is QJs and we're way behind his range.

Basically he should have AK the vast majority of the time here and we should try and get value instead of letting him check back a ton.

Donking > Checking folding > check calling imo.

If you don't think he's betting $300 on the turn with AK or worse hands... obviously you have to fold turn.

You are never showing this hand down unless you have the best hand, in which case you lose lots of value. I highly, highly doubt this player is folding AK getting 4-1 odds here.

Why in gods name are you putting K9 in a tight ABC villains range? lol. Hero even said he doesn't think he's got 89s.

He is never, ever shoving over a bet with worse than TT on this river. What don't you guys get about tight ABC player? Even if he thinks you are block betting with AQ or something stupid he knows he's never getting called by anything but FH's, even stupid regs would know this.

Basically the way the rest of the hand was played suggests that V has enough AK in his range. If you feel confident enough that V only bets his boats when checked to otr, then check/folding sounds better. But the fact that you called his turn bet suggests you think there are enough worse hands in his range, and I don't really see how that's going to change on this river if V bets.

Bottom line is if you check/call, you're going to be losing significantly more to V's boats and winning significantly less from V's straights than if you bet/fold. This does require the assumption that V doesn't jam AK over your river donk lead, but I really don't think this V will.

+1 to all of this. Some of the assumptions ITT about how V's going to play his hand are pretty far off IMO.

Are you x/c or x/f when he jams?


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16 combos for AK, 1 for quads, 3 for jacks full, looks like a good time to bet to me.

If you are V, do you check the Q ott? Pretty much worst turn of all time, and yet he bets?!

Let me go with the shorter version on the whole damn thing.

I refuse to think he's ever as tight as OP wants him to be postflop if is "decent reg" "pretty tight" "ABC" preflop. He is OTB. He just has to have 98s pre. He can have K9s sometimes if he is 1500eff and not a nit. Just bc he flats AK and QQ doesn't mean he doesn't flat these other hands, more than likely he does, plays fit-fold post, and survives doing so.

Even if you have him so tight/ABC, then how is he ever raising flop with anything but a straight (lots of them even if he doesn't have 98/K9) or JJ/QQ. How is he betting 300 ott with AK and then calling heros river lead?
All hero has to do here is call flop, then donk turn and bet river. There is no mystery whatsoever, he has lots of AK that calls and like 4 boats. Get the sizing right. Easy. I'm not checking any turns to some face up 2-5 Regfish.

As played, against a player I see as being less than a nit, always having more hands (he's a live player otb), and having more flop raises than just straights, I like a check-decide (having checked turn) mostly folding to a shove and calling some smaller sizes, also expecting some check backs.

Assume you mean with AK. Would depend on my read on OP. If I think he's calling flop with AQ/KQ then yeah I'm betting turn. If not, I'm checking. When I do bet turn it's with the plan to fold to any raise and to check back river. Also fold to a donk.

But Villain in this hand is an ABC decentish reg, so he really isn't that good and I expect these villains to bet AK decently often.

If you don't think he's betting AK here. you obv gotta fold the turn. Also the flop.

K so you refuse to believe OPs read and are going with your read on a player you never played with. Sounds good.

lol.

Also thats pretty much what we put his range on postflop. AK/JJ/QQ/QJs.

Leading turn & river looks way stronger than c/c turn, then donk river for like 1/3rd pot. He pays us off way more often and we keep hands we beat in.

Leading turn looks strong AF, and he probably only continues with hands that beat us and AK, but will fold AK on the river most of the time imo.
c/c turn then donk river looks more like a block bet with AQ/KQ and gets paid off more than donk/donk.

With all that said, I still think we should have folded flop because of how ugly it is even when we do hit. Just don't think it's profitable to continue.

Going with the description of "pretty tight, decent reg" which means he isn't as narrow pre and therefore isn't as narrow on the flop as what's being reported.

Sure, leading turn looks relatively strong, but so does check calling 300 (and then leading river), and betting is our best chance at getting two more streets of value from AK if he really is as narrow as OP says - why on earth would a player so so tight bet bet turn and river? Why would he bet it on the turn and ever call a river lead with hands worse than TT? How does he ever raise hands worse than AK otf when we bet QJT as PFR? If he's right, those hands lose frequency.

He probably has something like KK anyways...

So if you don't call a 6bb open with K9s you're a nit... aight lol.

Nobody is saying he's a nit, but a 6bb open should narrow his calling range down, and then his massive flop raise narrows it down even more, but by no means does it mean he only raises with AK lol.

I think we have a half PSB left OTR iirc. If he does something funny like $400, I'm ripping it in

People find reasons to play all sorts of sooooted/pretty hands when they're deep

We should have a bit under a PSB left I believe. Pot is 1060 and villain should have ~970 left

Fwiw:
I think that ck/shoving here is significantly better than open shoving the river.

I'm just not sure if it's better than ck/calling or bet/folding.

My bad. Prob just x/c river then

Thought we were at $1500 pot with $750 behind for some reason

c/c = lose to 100% of his hands that beat us, but a decent amount of the time he checks back AK.

Donk fold = lose to 100% of his hands that beat us, but pretty much always get paid off by AK.

Thus donk fold > check call.

The wizardry involved with x/eval being superior relies on villain never checking back AK, us x/c a larger bet than we would have b/f ourselves when villain has AK, while x/f to his larger sizings when he has a boat. Soul Reading 101.

I can get behind this if we feel we can get a strong read on villain or villain's bet sizing. I've even been in spots like this where I checked, planning on check/folding to a big bet, but instead check/jammed for value.