QJ???

OK, he has KQish.

Turbo snap this ****.

JFC not all that close and I didn't include any QJ combos. I need sleeeeep

We have over 30% against a range of AA QQ JJ KT AQ AJ

Definitely a turn call, we're getting ~3.5:1, so even if his range is just AJs, KTs, JJ, we've still got 28% equity and are correct to call. My guess for his actual turn range is AJs, AQo, KTs (weighting away from most combos except KsTs), JJ (only going to give him one combo as he's likely to either raise PF or c/r flop), A6s, QJs. Against that range, we have a little over 55% equity:

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: AsQhJs6d
Equity Win Tie
MP2 55.68% 40.68% 15.00% { AhQd }
MP3 44.32% 29.32% 15.00% { JhJc, AJs, A6s, QJs, KhTh, KsTs, AQo }

His range for calling flop is probably something like A5s+, A8o+ (excluding the AK versions as he's not limp-calling those PF), KsQs, KTs, Ks9s, Ts9s (maybe some other T9s combos as well), QJs, QsTs (maybe some other QTs as well), Qs9s, JJ, and then at least a few combos of things like KJs and JTs. I'd weight away from the strong made hands (KTs except maybe exactly KsTs, JJ) as those hands are likely to c/r the flop. Without weighting, we have about 80% equity against that range on the turn.

Not happy when villain shoves but I'm calling. You describe villain as a bad LAG, so he should have enough draws and enough worse hands in his range. In particular, I expect a bad LAG to turn up with AJ/A6/QJ at least some of the time and to shove with things like KsJx some of the time. If you think villain's range is essentially KT and KsQs and nothing else then you can fold.

The issue isn't what he has, it's what he likely doesn't

Enough chromosomes?

+y

What a terrible spot.. you're facing a c/c, c/s when you're repping so strong... hard to see worse 2 pairs or spade combo draws do this if they decided to c/c flop to pot-control.

I'll quit this forum if V shows anything except KT here.

Check/call then check/raise all in is super strong but what hands do this and not be worried about the flop?
KTss is about it,everything else just seems they would want to protect on flop with 1 player still to act after hero cbets.
Unless the v1 knew v2 was going to fold (eg had cards in hand ready to fold) then his range of calling could be a little stronger.
The Turn is where it fet interesting as your bet is pretty obvious that you are setting up for river bet.
Hero looks very strong here,but maybe V1 thinks he has some FE here.
I expect too see KT,weaker 2 pairs,K6ss.
I would not discount sets here totally as sometimes player like to mix it up but overall I think you have to call here and expect to be good here more often than not.

so the lag c/r'd and slides out 405 into 409. I dont think a lag would limp any set, and KT is in our range. He also can't expect us to fold.

I know I advocate never putting someone on a single had but he has KT written all over him. If he does we're under 20%. He could also have a chop although less likely due to blockers and some top and bottoms or bottom two's in there so call (and hope to fill up).

You'll be missed, gl at the tables

Not sure how we'll live without his < 1 post per day

ok

bunch of limpers pre, we raise AQ.
we flop top two on AQJss board, we bet, one call.
turn is a blank, he checks, we bet, he shoves giving us 5 to 1, we call.

honestly, this is as standard as it gets. I don´t think there is a decision point that is even remotely close.

OK, my alarmbells are really starting to come off now when he check-ship the turn on us, and his range from my point of view has changed in a drastic way based on this turn action.


My prediction is that we are up against the nutz or a weird played set of J on this turn action. Like when we suddenly faces ultra strong lines like this its not so much what "makes sense" for us anymore,as some people would argue it is less likely that he flatted those hands on the flop and that he would have raised JJ pre.

Those assumptions is true for the most part: however when he chooses to take this strong line despite our big preflopraise and we fired 2 significant bets on a board thats usually smashes the preflopraiser, that is the most important factor to me when it comes to ranging this guy at this point in the hand.


Putting hands like flopped bottom two (QJ) in his range at this point is just wishful thinking, i mean come on. This is a guy who doesent seem to care what OP is holding at all= and it makes perfect sense because he has the stones himself.


Like 80-90 percent of the time i would guess we are up against a nutted hand here aka K-10 or JJ, 10-20 percent left for the occasional rare spazz with a draw, or overvalueing lesser two pair.

I agree that raise, bet, bet, and call are all standard decisions. As I mentioned above the real question here is bet-sizing and range. I didn't post this hand because "what I do???" I posted it because we talk too much about weird spots and not enough about ranging Vs in more normal spots and maximizing value.

So instead of saying "call, ldo," could you perhaps give your range for V's line?

My magic oreos are telling me that V has no idea where he's at and is just going with his hand. He's probably not bluffing with less then a combo draw.

I don't think the mini-tank first up ott indicates the nuts.

I'm setting his range at:
20% nuts
20% KsXs
20% 2p or set (V probably equates these)
30% draws w/o a pair
10% spazz

Never folding getting 3.5:1 against V as described and given board texture.

This sounds good. Obviously never folding.

Because of V1s limp call I'm putting him on QTss. KQss and JJ are possible but I'd assume a LAG type player is raising those from EP. KT is definitely in there as well but I think there are enough combo draws we are ahead to justify a call.

I'm all in.

The pot has gotten so big I can see V1 saying "might as well get it in, don't want to miss my draw then give up on the river". He was prolly hoping for a check-check on the turn to see his royal draw materialize.

also when a LAG starts playing passive on the flop, red flags should be going up. It depends on how laggy he really is though.

Wtf does this even mean? We are very weighed towards value hands otf, if he has KT check calling otf when we are likely not barreling AK or AT is dumb.

he's probably raising all two pair hands, FD's & SD's. The one hand he might "slow play (for a lag)" is the nuts. checking seems dumb but maybe not to a bad lag.

* grunch turn check/raise *

Pretty sure I'm snap calling the turn. AA/QQ/JJ seem a little unlikely given action, which leaves us losing against KT while crushing AJ/QJ and any hand he's getting frisky with (such as ****** AK/AT or just big draws or just bad LAG air).

Having said that, check/raises for big $$$ on big streets are typically ~nuttish, especially when it looks like we could be ~nuttish. I'm really hoping Villain can consider some worse hands as being ~nuttish, but that might be wishful thinking on my part.

Gpracticeyourboatingupifbehind,imoG

All combos of AJ are in his range all day and that's all we need for a snap call. A bad LAG could be used to getting folds from bad players who don't understand pot odds, so sure this LAG could have QJ, AK, combo draws, AT, flush draws, etc. How often? Hard to say. We need hero to need at least 35% before we start talking about a real decision here.

(Didn't give a lot of thought to the 35, maybe it's more or less than that. But 22? No decision. )