Villain is a very competent reg, thinks decisions through. Overdoes the thinking unnecessarily sometimes. He spent 3+ minutes making a decision with runner-runner 2-pair against a river raise in a tiny pot that should have been a snap call, all the while thinking his reasoning out loud. Is also capable of making moves. Has previous history with Hero and we respect each other's game.

Table is full of regs, except for one really solid lady in her 50s (plays a bit straightforward, though, and folds to pf 3-bets nearly 100% of the time) and a tight new comer who hasn't done anything out of the ordinary. Villain and I the only ones with any real edge against the others.

OTTH:

UTG folds, V limps UTG+1 (~$450), limp, limp, MP3 (Solid Old Lady) raises to $12 (~$650). Folds to BTN who calls (~$200). Hero in the SB with 77 calls (~$525). BB folds, Villain calls, limps fold.

FLOP ($54):

7K5

Hero?

25-30.

I like leading.

Check/raising tends to be an overplay here imo. You need to consider continuing ranges facing a hero c/r. People will almost always fold Kx (unless x = ) when you check/raise and might continue only with combo draws, nut flush draws, and flushes. We want to get more value from more hands on more streets rather than narrowing villains' ranges to their very strongest hands, which comprise few combos and have decent equity.

I also think the monotone board checks through with some frequency.

We're primarily targeting Kx (pair and pair + draws) and naked flush draws, and those hands will call a larger bet.

I think 40 is pretty good sizing. Planning to lead many (i.e. mostly non-heart) turns like ~80% as well.

Hmmm, I had my sizing a little lower, but essentially targeting the same hands. I expect you are right, though, those hands will call the larger bet....

Lead $30. Standard bet and keeps your range wide and gets value from big hearts and Kx. If someone raises they probably have a flush.

I would lead the flop. This is the perfect flop to bet larger to exploit Villain's inelastic range. $40 is good but you can go even larger as well.

Alright, looks like we had the same bet range in mind ($25-$40).

Hero bets $25, V snaps, others fold. Was looking to get value from every K, 2pr combo (75 being the most likely), and A. Planned to 3-bet flop if it got raised back to me by V, but fold if MP2 raised.

TURN ($104):

7K56

Hero?

I like 50 here, I think it keeps 2 pair and Ks in, while giving bad odds to draw for flush while also enticing the flush draw to stay in.

Doesn't $50 give the flush draw sufficient IOs to call?
If V has 1 out, that's 44 'unseen' cards/8 hearts = 5.5-1 = 4.5:1

If H bets $50, V will be getting 3:1. If the heart comes, H cks & V bets $80, is Hero folding?

I want to bet an amount that gets called. I'd not worried about offering proper odds because A) I know what the scare cards are, and B) if the flush gets there most players will size their bets smaller than they should, thus giving us odds to draw to a FH.

What two pair hands are in V's range?

@DeathCabForTootie, We're talkin' about the size of the bet ott.

So am I.

I want to get paid by AhX but not own ourselves vs a straight or flush. I want to bet the max amount that gets called by his entire continuing range (most likely the Ah).

$50 IMO

donk 40 otf, AP bet 75, fat value, I assume any thinking player would raise a flish otf so I range V as all sorts of Kx and heart draws, 75s unlikely.

6 is actually a good card for us as 67 might like it while gssds probably fold flop (but maybe not).

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if Vs range is inelastic why would you want to go bigger than the bet that gets the job done? As long as we deny odds to the FDs.

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value

this, obv

Have you ever heard, "you could have bet $1k and I would have still called?"

This is the point of exploiting inelastic ranges using higher betting sums. It doesn't matter if we bet $25 or $75, his range is calling. So why not bet larger?

I would have gone at least 40 on the flop.

There's a lot of value to be had. I also want to build a pot to prepare for a possible bluff catch later (the larger the pot, the more we win if we decide to c/c whiffed run outs, the more likely villain is to bluff given pot size, the larger he will bluff given pot size, and the more often he is bluffing given likely polarization).

As played, I'm betting 75 into the 104 turn pot.

But I would have bet 40 on flop, gotten to turn with a 134 pot and bet around 105 on the turn.

Villain is trapped between Hero and the PFR when hero donk bets the flop. He's generally got a strong holding. Could he already have the nuts?

He has draws or nuts already IMO and very few value hands that limp called pre and continued OTF given the betting order I stated above. KxQh? KxJh? 75ss? Those hands just don't limp call pre OOP enough, then they don't get involved OTF given the PF action.

Hero bets $45. Villain doesn't look too thrilled. Plays with his chips for about two seconds, says "45?", then cuts chips and calls.

RIVER ($204):

7K564

Hero?

Not a big fan of the bet sizing, but as played:

On the river, your options are bet for value or check/decide.

While he can certainly have whiffed draws, I want to bet very small for value at this point. You bet only 45 into 104, and it sounds like he thought about it for a bit. I think that's a little less weighted towards a draw, which often calls more quickly. I think his "not thrilled" look is likely genuine rather than a reverse tell. He's probably not thrilled.

It's really hard to know exactly what is in or "should" be in a limp/call EP range - that said, generally I think it's pretty middling and pretty wide. I do think he can have quite a bit of KQ, KJ, KT, K9, Kx. 99-JJ with one heart are also possible. 55 and 75 are possible. Of course, so are straights with 8h8x, 87, 86, and flushes he's playing slow.

I do think there's enough value in a bet from KQ, KJ, KT, K9, Kx (these don't even need a heart to have continued on flop and turn), 99-JJ with one heart, and a few other hands. Maybe he even makes a super light call with A-high AhXx when we bet small. And I am definitely advocating betting very small on the river... not because we're targeting calls from Ax specifically, but because the board now has a 4-straight + flush out there, and he's just not calling a large value bet with a worse hand often enough to make it +EV.

I like betting 25 on the river for value.

Bet 75$, we have a strong enough hand to extract value and can fold if raised. A naked 8 is all that improved, 8x8h is certainly in his range but it might even fold earlier (esp. if we had bet more). Overall I think the tell means a lot of two pair in Vs range.

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Can I ask how you know from this flop that Vs range is inelastic? Wouldn't a Kx fold to a large enough bet, or a SD or FD? thus making it elastic? thx.

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Whether or not Paratrooper is using the term correctly (and I'm not sure based on exactly what he says), an inelastic range just means that the V is calling or folding regardless of the bet. That just means that IF V is calling, he will call anything. Some of that range may indeed fold, but would fold to a min bet anyway.

A good example of this is a V calling OTF with 2 to a flush and OTT, and a flush card hits OTR. Quite often we can bomb the river with the nuts since V's range is inelastic here (he isn't blind, and he either likes the flush or hates it).