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Oversized river bet????? Oversized river bet?????

10-02-2015 , 11:44 PM
Hi guys,

1/2 NLHE Horseshoe Cincinnati

Playing an early morning game today. High hand promotion brought in the regs and kept some players overnight. Overall the table is super passive. Tons of limping and rarely raising.


HERO 36 White Fat. I know some of the regs and all the dealers. At this game, I play very differently. Limping almost everything. I know that if I hit, I can get paid. Stack is now $220

UTG Villain. 50 year old Playing almost every hand. Moved from 2/5 busted table 1 hour before. He started with $150. Worked that down to a hundo and doubled through me. Flush over Flush. Stack is $250

SB Villain. 80 year old. Not good. Playing any 2 for cheap and calling down with any pair. Stack is $150.


UTG limps 2 others limp. Hero on button with 99. Hero just limps. SB calls BB checks option.
Of course I can raise here but if I raise to $15 everyone folds. If I raise to $10 everyone calls. Lose Lose IMO.

Flop 9c Ad Jd. (Pot $12)
Checked to HERO. I bet $8. SB calls UTG calls.

Turn 3s(Pot $36)
Checked to HERO. I bet $30. SB calls UTG calls.

River 6s (Pot $126)

Checked to HERO. HERO has $140 behind. I figured that the flop was so wet, it could look like I had a monster draw that bricked and if I jam, it looks weaker than value betting something like $50. As for Villains ranges. I see both holding 1 pair hands and draws. I would think that we would have heard from 2 pair already.

Thoughts/Comments/Thank you.
Oversized river bet????? Quote
10-02-2015 , 11:51 PM
Lol at limping preflop. I would bet 12 on the flop and the rest of the hand plays out cleaner in terms of sizing.
Oversized river bet????? Quote
10-02-2015 , 11:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobman0330
Lol at limping preflop. I would bet 12 on the flop and the rest of the hand plays out cleaner in terms of sizing.
I have incorporated limping into my 1/2 strategy. I think that considering my experience, I want to play more hands in position. I see no reason to raise with 55-99 here. If I raise to $15 in this particular game almost everyone folds. If I raise to $10, I get 5 callers.

I know it is unorthodox but I have watched a ton of DC vids that agree with the strat. That is the reason I have adopted it and it works well.
Oversized river bet????? Quote
10-03-2015 , 12:05 AM
You're lighting money on fire limping there. It would be different if there was an agg player behind you and you knew that a raise would go in pre and you would get value that way while disguising your hand. That's a lot of the DC theory behind limping this type of hand. Go back and watch them again and listen to their explanation as to why they're making an unorthodox play. It isn't a static play for them, it's situational.

This isn't limit you're not trapping bets and balancing your range. You're a) failing to get value from a value hand in the value position and b) not attacking dead money.

Your thoughts at the end I agree w, 2 pair and big draws we would've heard from earlier. They don't have big hands. 70-80 makes you more money long term vs the one pair hands that they have.

Last edited by sungar78; 10-03-2015 at 12:12 AM.
Oversized river bet????? Quote
10-03-2015 , 12:07 AM
Raise to 10 and get 5 calls. Sounds great. Raise to 12 and scope $7, also sounds good, do it w 83o next time you're on the btn, you got unlucky to pick up 99, just raise. It's printing money.
Oversized river bet????? Quote
10-03-2015 , 12:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by paratrooper99
I have incorporated limping into my 1/2 strategy. I think that considering my experience, I want to play more hands in position. I see no reason to raise with 55-99 here. If I raise to $15 in this particular game almost everyone folds. If I raise to $10, I get 5 callers.

I know it is unorthodox but I have watched a ton of DC vids that agree with the strat. That is the reason I have adopted it and it works well.
What is your experience doing for you here? You flopped a set and bet a couple times, any fish is capable of that. How are you playing this hand when you don't flop a set 5-ways?
Oversized river bet????? Quote
10-03-2015 , 12:51 AM
Description of hero and SB is almost identical.
Oversized river bet????? Quote
10-03-2015 , 03:01 AM
If you would've raised preflop, even to 10 and got 7 callers, you could've bet on flop and turn and get the rest of your stack in on the river, where anyone with an ace will feel compelled to call it off because they'll be getting like 3 to 1 (if you bet the streets right) instead of less than 2 to 1 in how you played it. Point being, don't limp 99 on the button next time.

As played, I'd be more inclined to value bet 70-90 then expecting someone to call your overbet AI, but it's not a terrible play.
Oversized river bet????? Quote
10-03-2015 , 08:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by paratrooper99
I have incorporated limping into my 1/2 strategy. I think that considering my experience, I want to play more hands in position. I see no reason to raise with 55-99 here. If I raise to $15 in this particular game almost everyone folds. If I raise to $10, I get 5 callers.

I know it is unorthodox but I have watched a ton of DC vids that agree with the strat. That is the reason I have adopted it and it works well.
I watched the series Chuck from DC did on "Beating Live SSNL" relatively recently and I don't recall him suggesting this. He does recommend limping 22-66 in EP in many 1/2 games, but limping 99 on the BTN?
Oversized river bet????? Quote
10-03-2015 , 08:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FastBF
I watched the series Chuck from DC did on "Beating Live SSNL" relatively recently and I don't recall him suggesting this. He does recommend limping 22-66 in EP in many 1/2 games, but limping 99 on the BTN?
I don't think there's enough io to limp low pp in EP at a table that is passive and especially if it's not very deep. Mid-pp play well but you might as well raise them.

IP, limping is semi-nuts.

OP, I see where you're coming from. Small pot strategy is basically a pair-drawing contest, and you have to thin the field to win at that game. You're right, over-betting pre enriches the field with hands that are ahead. Enrichment does not mean the same as a guarantee, but I see where you're coming from. But as for the $10 bet: if you're up against five people in a pair-drawing contest, and you already have a pair, isn't that at least kind of OK? You've set forth an argument for overlimping KQo, but not 99.

The bigger problem is, if you hit, how do you maximize your profits? The pot grows exponentially with each round of betting; failure to bump it up pre is a mistake with exponential consequences. (Which is why limping small pp in EP is also a mistake at this table, an even bigger one).

See, your thought process is sound on one level. By overbetting pre, you might be forcing the fish into optimal play, by getting them to fold out everything but premiums. But, by being in a position of only being able to bet eight bucks OTF, you are likewise forcing the fish into optimal play. Yeah you denied direct odds, but look at the io you're giving them.

I mean, have you tried betting $12 pre? It might be worth a try... $1 chips have many uses, other than tips...

Last edited by AbqDave; 10-03-2015 at 09:06 AM. Reason: @lapidator: that there's funny, don't care who ya are
Oversized river bet????? Quote
10-03-2015 , 09:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by paratrooper99
I have incorporated limping into my 1/2 strategy. I think that considering my experience, I want to play more hands in position. I see no reason to raise with 55-99 here. If I raise to $15 in this particular game almost everyone folds. If I raise to $10, I get 5 callers.

I know it is unorthodox but I have watched a ton of DC vids that agree with the strat. That is the reason I have adopted it and it works well.
If this is true, then your assumptions on the river are flawed. $15 looks like a "big" bet to this entire table after a crowd of limpers, then why do you suddenly think all of their one pair hands will even come close to calling your pot sized river shove? Do you think their bad aces are calling you all the way down, but aren't calling a raise pre?
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10-03-2015 , 10:43 AM
22-66 maybe 77s I don't mind the limp but 88+ I'm raising at a passive table like this. We have the button and like people have said if you raise to 10 and it goes 8-ways that's fine since you're only continuing if you hit your set anyway. I'd raise to 12 here but seems like I play differently to you and have a different image.

On the flop I'd bet 10-12 if they have draws they're not folding and it just makes it easier to get your stack in by the river. Possibly maybe betting like 15 actually given its a limped pot.

On the river shoving into 2 people after you've bet bet looks pretty strong and given how they've played it I'm not sure if you'd get a call. Obviously dependent on villain but I like a bet of around 80-90 here as played.

But just raise pre dude.

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Oversized river bet????? Quote
10-04-2015 , 01:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sungar78
You're lighting money on fire limping there. It would be different if there was an agg player behind you and you knew that a raise would go in pre and you would get value that way while disguising your hand. That's a lot of the DC theory behind limping this type of hand. Go back and watch them again and listen to their explanation as to why they're making an unorthodox play. It isn't a static play for them, it's situational.
Until about a year ago, if it was limped to me and I was going to play the hand, I was raising to at least 10 almost 100% of the time. I saw a DC vid talking about not doing this with SC and lower PP. So I stopped. Since then, my winrate has doubled.

Considering how passive this specific table was, I was losing some value by limping 99. I was pretty confident that if either Villain had any piece, I was getting at least 2 streets of value.
Oversized river bet????? Quote
10-04-2015 , 01:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ShowdownValue
If this is true, then your assumptions on the river are flawed. $15 looks like a "big" bet to this entire table after a crowd of limpers, then why do you suddenly think all of their one pair hands will even come close to calling your pot sized river shove? Do you think their bad aces are calling you all the way down, but aren't calling a raise pre?
You have a good point. Why will 1 pair hands call down? In my experience, live players call down with top pair a huge percentage of the time.

Considering the way this hand played out, I have barreled from position on a pretty wet board texture. The 2/5 player will sometimes look me up with 2nd pair. The SB is a calling station. Any pair, he has called down all day so far.

I think that my thought process has shifted to less scooping preflop/flop with Cbets and more toward making profitable decisions postflop. Obviously it is not something that should be all or none.

I agree that a small raise is appropriate here. Any suggestions on sizing?
Oversized river bet????? Quote
10-04-2015 , 01:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AbqDave
I don't think there's enough io to limp low pp in EP at a table that is passive and especially if it's not very deep. Mid-pp play well but you might as well raise them.

IP, limping is semi-nuts.

OP, I see where you're coming from. Small pot strategy is basically a pair-drawing contest, and you have to thin the field to win at that game. You're right, over-betting pre enriches the field with hands that are ahead. Enrichment does not mean the same as a guarantee, but I see where you're coming from. But as for the $10 bet: if you're up against five people in a pair-drawing contest, and you already have a pair, isn't that at least kind of OK? You've set forth an argument for overlimping KQo, but not 99.

The bigger problem is, if you hit, how do you maximize your profits? The pot grows exponentially with each round of betting; failure to bump it up pre is a mistake with exponential consequences. (Which is why limping small pp in EP is also a mistake at this table, an even bigger one).

See, your thought process is sound on one level. By overbetting pre, you might be forcing the fish into optimal play, by getting them to fold out everything but premiums. But, by being in a position of only being able to bet eight bucks OTF, you are likewise forcing the fish into optimal play. Yeah you denied direct odds, but look at the io you're giving them.

I mean, have you tried betting $12 pre? It might be worth a try... $1 chips have many uses, other than tips...
Some good points here.

Do you think that 77 and up here is a good starting range for raising in this type of spot?
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10-04-2015 , 01:53 AM
Thanks for the feedback. I was trying something a little different and I see most of your points.
Oversized river bet????? Quote

      
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