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overpair tough river decision 2/5 NL overpair tough river decision 2/5 NL

12-09-2016 , 11:05 PM
2/5nl Hero just sat down (495) played two hands visiting out of town casino.
V1 large stack over 1500 30 years old white guy seems like a regular here.
V1 MP limp hero CO KhKs raises to 30 .
SB calls (700) MP 1 calls
3 players (95) flop 10c7c2h
V1 donks 25 hero reraises to 90 SB fold V1 hesitates then calls (275)
turn 4c. Vi hesitates says "i dont know if i should check " then checks hero thinks about betting 150 or checking and checks. river 8h. v1 bet 175. hero thinks about it. v1 says "once you fold ill show'' hero ignores him then thinks he is behind and folds. villan shows hand.
i will say what it was after discussion.
good river fold or bad? also bet the turn or not? and what do you believe villain had or at least a range of what he had at showdown.
overpair tough river decision 2/5 NL Quote
12-09-2016 , 11:18 PM
like 90% of the time a guy says he'll show his hand he is bluffing

Showdown if he wasn't bluffing is probably a bunch of flushes and weird T7/T8 two pairs, occasional flopped sets.

Showdown if he is bluffing is a bunch of 89s, weird gutshots with a single club, and sometimes pair of tens he wasn't sure if he was bluffing with or not and then when you took time he realized he was behind and decided to say "once you fold I'll show" hoping that would influence you to fold.

You played it ok, I probably would have felt fine folding too if he hadn't said his little speech
overpair tough river decision 2/5 NL Quote
12-10-2016 , 12:06 AM
Make a larger raise on the flop. You can make it ~$150 and shove all turns.

Your small raise puts you in a bit of a weird spot on the turn. Normally you should bet/fold and get value from single club hands. However, any decent sized bet leaves <PSB and you're almost forced to call it of. I think I reluctantly check.

I'm calling the river. His ridiculously small flop donk and turn check don't scream strength. I highly doubt a set or AA. He could have a flush, but most flushes bet the turn. Maybe he backed into two pair, but that should only be 87s. I think enough weak hands or air try to rep a flush. His verbal tells also indicate genuine weakness.
overpair tough river decision 2/5 NL Quote
12-10-2016 , 12:21 AM
I'm snapping off river here. We did a good job pot controlling with the turn check back. Once I check turn I'm calling non-ace non-club rivers. You'll see a flush a lot but I think we're good against Tx or whiffed 98 enough to call.
overpair tough river decision 2/5 NL Quote
12-10-2016 , 01:51 AM
Verbalize "call" while keeping keeping your chips in front of you because the pot is coming your way.
overpair tough river decision 2/5 NL Quote
12-10-2016 , 03:14 AM
This is a very very very easy fold for me 3 hands in.

I also wouldn't allow the antics to influence things just yet - maybe he yammers away when weak, or weak-strong, or nutted, or maybe he's mentally ill, or on infinity tilt from a hand we didn't see 4 minutes ago, or maybe he's sunrunning a min-buy and can't control himself every time he makes the best hand.... or maybe he has you capped on the turn and wants you to fold 1 pair hands.. or maybe he has you capped on the turn and wants you to call 1 pair hands...

I ain't snapping off 175 just to see what a limp-c, bet-call, pile line bluff looks like.
overpair tough river decision 2/5 NL Quote
12-10-2016 , 08:02 AM
Thank you all for the input.
The reason i checked back on turn was fear of flushes.
Eddie was right, I should bet fold on turn is the better option.
On river was still thinking he might have 108 or 107 or a flush.
After your analysis i am ahead much of the time especially 10x hands like j10 or k10 make up large range.

Unfortunately i did fold.
Guy shows AsJh and makes a big show running his mouth about his awesome bluff.
Eddie is right should have bumped flop to round 150. 175 to win 520 i guess i need to only be right 35 percent of time plus. thanks guys
overpair tough river decision 2/5 NL Quote

      
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