If you're losing so often you should just not play.

I generally would not sell with no markup. Don't see the point.

Okay reask question:

Goal: 39k over 90 days, playing at stakes 5/5 or lower (5/10 will count as 50%, 10/20 will count at 25%).

What odds would you put this prop bet on?

433$ a day.

That seems excessive but assuming your hourly is close to 10bb it is not hard at all.

I could do this if the prop bet was for meaningful money. I would not lay you odds on this fwiw if I knew you were a player that crushes and I'm assuming you are if you play up to 10/20

The challenge in that is the mental wear and tear, day in and day out... I think even money/lay you 2-1, is pretty fair assuming that you beat the game healthily

Reduce variance?

For or against?

I think this is a pretty fanciful bet and would bet against it pretty heavily odds wise. You would need to average > 50 hours a week at A game levels which I don't think is very likely.

Is the game a 200bb buy in?

I rescind what I said earlier. Its not easy. 3 months is a longggg time. It is doable though if your motivated by side money... Even money is wrong. Steeper than that.

39k in 3 months at 5/5 and lower? You over estimate the robotic nature of people.

This is very doable. If sol has option to play every day and stakes are always available than I would bet on him doing this.

Do you guys use any poker apps on your iPhone? Which are good and which ones suck?

Poker Journal
Poker Tracker (this is similar functionally to PJ but includes a pokerstove also)
Poker Cruncher ect...

Yeah, location and buy-in cap matter a lot here. If the 5/5 is uncapped and stacks are 400 BB+ among many players, this seems reasonable.

My guess is most would fail due to the hours. I mean even at 10 BB an hour ($50) you're committing to play over 8.5 hours a day, every day. Not many players can hold their win rate playing 60 hours a week due to mental drain and finding optimal game conditions.

You probably have to ride the variance train anyway - you're talking about holding your win rate for a relatively short timeframe. Going even 1 week where your net win is $0 (not even a loss) will be painful.

i havent flopped anything with AK in the last 20 hrs of play
70% of my cbets get called
never hit the turn, never even turn a draw

standard?

This hand from my last 1/3 NL session has been bugging me.

Terrible fish V1 ($180, he's probably in for $900) straddles to $6, bunch of other players limp, lucky fish V2 ($1000) limps on the button, Hero (covers table) limps KQo in BB, V1 (straddler) checks his option. Table is extremely loose, plus I've been raisey; I'm not looking to bloat the pot preflop OOP right here and I believe getting it 3way at most will be difficult.

Flop (6 players, $35): K 8 3
checks around (I typically check TP type hands in EP on drawless boards in limped pots)

Turn (6 players, $35): Q
I bet $35, V1 calls, V2 calls (I'm assuming standard)

River (3 players, $140) K

V1 has a PSB of $140 left, but I'm not really concerned about him. V2 is obviously my target having about $960. I'm fairly sure there's an ok chance (50/50 maybe?) of him stacking off with a made flush. So my plan is to shove $960 into a $140 pot.

But before I can do this, V1 bets $100 out of turn. I say to the dealer, "I haven't acted yet". V1's bet will stand, and I now have the option of doing whatever I want. I still shove instead of going for the check/raise (not on any ethical moral guideline, just cuz I still think it's the best play).

My reasoning is just cuz I'm hoping V2 thinks I'm just going after V1's money and that I kinda don't realize he's still there. I'm thinking shoving after a bet and a call might be taken as too strong and not as likely to be paid off.

So... just check/shove? Or do some even just go for smaller value and check/$300 - $400? Or is just flat out shoving still fine? I've gone back and forth on this one in my head, and I keep convincing myself open shoving is fine, but I'm not sure...



GgoingforthegoldG

GG check/raise that for eff's sake. Take the free moniez.

Ship feels too big though unless you think V2 is the fish of fish. Even donkeys can fold to a 3 X pot sized bet.

Fwiw I would do this bet If I was in Vegas with 200bb 2/5.

If game runs 24/7 it's doable.

To clarify condition: the player in question has no job and will be trying out full time. Casino there has a lot of action almost 24/7 (sometimes it's less traffic, may have to play 1/2 or whatever).

Buyins are not super deep, I think 150bbs.

Okay, what odds would you put it on? I guess you think it should favor the prop bettor. What odds are you saying? Like 1.5:1? I'd have thought less.

ty, miami. I personally think 1:1 are favorable odds, not the other way around.

It's not that I might put a prop bet on, it's more a theoretical discussion because my friend said something like "I would put my whole br in to bet against you" and I was like "lol wat massive disrespect bro". We're not really going to put a lot of money and bet, but I felt like I would make a Poker Goals thread and prove him wrong anyway. If I had to guess what odds I'd bet it on, I'd possibly do as much as 2:1 favouring my opponent, IF I get to scout out the games first to make sure they are going to run often. IF I do get off pace, I trust myself, especially IF there is a big prop bet, to put in 12 hour days. If anything, having a tiny prop bet/goal would motivate me to put in hours, so it's a win win, really. I do want to prove him wrong, that prick. Thinks he's a 6max online player so he's such a hot shot, pffftt.

PokerJournal
PkrCruncher

and I do have Hand History on there... but it sucks IMO! I guess I could play with it some more, but I was turned off by it real quick.

Here is what Hand History does:

http://www.holdemhandhistory.com/play/6383/

Type it in the app, upload, and it gives you the link.

The problem with playing that much is that your winrate will suffer from playing too much. You aren't a robot.

I think 25k in 90 days is much more realistic which is averaging like 5 hours a day @ 50 $/hr.

I use Poker Cruncher and Poker Dominator

I'm pretty happy with both of them, although I have never used anything else, so can't compare them to competitive products

I mean I did it for 2 months back then and didn't feel any burnout, so I was thinking I'd last another month, probably.

What does everyone think about making it 95 days or 37k instead. Would that change the odds significantly? Would that be closer to fair?

I use Poker Cruncher and Poker Journal. I also use Sidepod for Omaha and other games.

old guy opens to 8 i 3b to 26 with AQo from CO. BB calls, old guy calls.

flop K82ss checked to me i cbet 45, BB ships all in 188 old man calls.

showdown BB with random AJo and and old man with 3s4s.

what in ****

surely the easy way to work out the odds are to look at your win rate at the same stakes and then make an allowance for variation in the quantity of hours you will have to play vs your normal number of hours?

how many hours do you have at 5/5 NL and what is your normal win rate and how many hours a week do you average?

Get a live blog.

who here can tell me what poker in vegas is like around xmas? thinking of going like the 20th-27th.

i'm guessing in can find games but is it a good time, a bad time, or it makes no difference?