*** Official 2010 FTP Regs Thread *** - Page 100 - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

Dave4112 and mightyjimbo have weird games (stacked crooked also). they are calling stations. Their game can best be described as similar to scout. How either of these players has not gone broke, is beyond me. The other day dave4112 called my huge squeeze with 58 suited or something. Jesus Christ, am I that bad??? mightyjimbo limps with suited aces in the gun and then tries to crack my big pair with them. sick. Very scoutesque if you ask me.

But it was sooooted! And yes you are that bad

08-23-2010 , 12:42 AM

#2477

juan valdez

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 5,686

vampire plays rush and his game is a thorwback to 2007

08-23-2010 , 12:51 AM

#2478

TucoRamirez

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 2,375

who is vampire?

08-23-2010 , 02:58 AM

#2479

morello

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 1,656

Quote:

Originally Posted by skelm

If that's what you think I'm saying then you're really not getting it because I'm saying about as close to the opposite as possible

Quote:

Except that EV is flawed as it only counts after the money goes in. You could do this / say this if it was only counting pure all-in preflop situations - but it doesn't and that's not how it works currently hence my point.

I'll be honest, I'm not sure exactly what your stance is..all I am saying is that given a choice of using winrate or EV as a metric, EV is a better indicator going forward. You could ignore both or use something else, but the best estimator (AFAIK) is going to be all-in EV.

I just read the article you linked, and your point seems to be that the EV calculation is not a "true" expected winrate calculation. I don't think anyone would argue that it is. Regardless of how low the correlation to "true" winrate is, its correlation is still higher than actual winrate. Both numbers might be inaccurate, but one is less inaccurate than the other. Since the EV calculation is an unbiased estimator, it is trivially true that its usefulness is at least as important as actual winrate.

08-23-2010 , 03:51 AM

#2480

Andrew Song

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 1,545

lol cmon bro. If you think All-in EV EV doesn't have much to do with ur winate, ur clueless . In today's game, **** ton of money goes in on coinflip situations PF or on the flop. If you're constantly on the other end of the flip, your winrate will not be good as others.

Look at this graph for instance. It's a graph of legendary grinder of our time. Ya, sure he'd still be winning a **** ton even without all the flips he won but it's a indicator that all-in EV has major impact on ur winrate.

This is graph of whatever hands I bought in my database for 2010. What's crazy is friend of mine sent me a datamined graph of him being up over 6digits in ev last yr. I would not be surprised if he was up atleast 300k+ ev in his life time. Some ppl always ran good and will run good forever. That's not poker. That's life.

08-23-2010 , 05:32 AM

#2481

skelm

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 3,448

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andrew Song

My point isn't that it should be discounted nor that it has nothing to do with true winrate but that it's an overused / over relied upon concept and has little bearing without extremes (as I said in the article). The graph you posted is an extreme. The point of the article as well as my original post was due to people posting about being below ev over small sample sizes and thinking that's reason to complain.

Also, no reason to resort to insults. I'm not exactly clueless on the matter having worked with Hold'em Manager (the company, not just product) from early 2008 to late 2009 (pretty easy to verify if you search the forums or pm fozzy).

edit: Also, sick graph.

08-23-2010 , 06:33 AM

#2482

Andrew Song

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 1,545

no insult bro. honestly, i wasn't even sure who i was talking to.
btw the graph is nanonoko obv

08-23-2010 , 07:14 AM

#2483

skelm

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 3,448

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andrew Song

no insult bro. honestly, i wasn't even sure who i was talking to.
btw the graph is nanonoko obv

All good, I was just in a bad mood since below ev today

08-23-2010 , 07:36 AM

#2484

DoubleFly

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 5,983

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andrew Song

Look at this graph for instance. It's a graph of legendary grinder of our time. Ya, sure he'd still be winning a **** ton even without all the flips he won but it's a indicator that all-in EV has major impact on ur winrate.

LOL. I thought Song posted his own graph, and I was thinking, "what a weird way to refer to oneself." :-)

08-23-2010 , 10:20 AM

#2485

Andrew Song

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 1,545

dude, if i ran like that i would be shipping 500 to every reg who posts here on their birthday

08-23-2010 , 12:27 PM

#2486

flytrap

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 10,918

Quote:

Originally Posted by morello

This is basically what I was trying to say, only better.

08-23-2010 , 02:08 PM

#2487

novel20

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 1,712

Plays good, runs good, and also a Chinese. That's like the total package. And that's why he is Pokerstars Online team. Just like the legendery Johnny the f-king Chan.

08-23-2010 , 03:05 PM

#2488

loco

The First Golden

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 14,871

Dam Song, why don't you post the redline. You are such a tease

08-23-2010 , 03:35 PM

#2489

Nick Rivers

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 4,726

Quote:

Originally Posted by juan valdez

vampire plays rush and his game is a thorwback to 2002

FYP

08-23-2010 , 03:40 PM

#2490

TucoRamirez

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 2,375

Quote:

Originally Posted by TucoRamirez

who is vampire?

08-23-2010 , 09:01 PM

#2491

ferdinand bardamu

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 669

The fact that it's unbiased doesnt mean its corelated. Can anyone run tests to proof correlation? I don't remember statistics. It's an F test or something no?

08-24-2010 , 02:55 AM

#2492

GrandMelon

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 7,734

Quote:

Originally Posted by loco

and doublefly??? Jesus, don't even get me started on that guy. That guy flats minraises with KK preflop after 3 players have already called. He thinks its good to call 3bets with AK oop so he can bluff catch after he flops top pair. And his evolution in poker has been from playing 17/10 2% 3bet two years ago, to 13/9 4% 3bet 6 months ago, and now he is back to 18/12 but with 5% 3bet. My gosh, just play 17/14 already.

And that donk jmoney thinks a 10% 3bet is sustainable at fullring. 16 rus and turtlelicious somehow have a higher 3bet than PFR (WTF?!! how is that possible). Pskroes has preflop play down perfectly, but has no idea what to do postflop. Whitehale is a nit who thinks he is a LAG because he opens 90% of buttons. Newman thinks its cool to 4bet Q10 off from early position and get it in (of course villain has AA).

p.s And of course Robsainter is God. But missing in action is a certain vampire who probably only plays live poker these days.

this is an A+ regs thread post

now who are you?

08-24-2010 , 04:10 AM

#2493

Andrew Song

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 1,545

he is robsainter

08-24-2010 , 08:53 AM

#2494

loco

The First Golden

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 14,871

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrandMelon

this is an A+ regs thread post

now who are you?

Just a railbird. The real monies is in live poker. Supposedly you can make like 38 bb per hour.

08-24-2010 , 01:41 PM

#2495

peterk9

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 1,618

nl600 is rigged!!

08-24-2010 , 04:57 PM

#2496

Ricky1231

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 6,663

vampire = count stackula u fishes

08-25-2010 , 06:49 AM

#2497

AAri Gold

enthusiast

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 90

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ricky1231

vampire = count stackula u fishes

what happened to count stacula? that guy used to always play like a year ago at 5-10 10-20

08-25-2010 , 08:02 AM

#2498

vitti

old hand

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 1,933

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andrew Song

dude, if i ran like that i would be shipping 500 to every reg who posts here on their birthday

damnit

08-25-2010 , 02:05 PM

#2499

jphil007

adept

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 729

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrandMelon

this is an A+ regs thread post

I'm a low profile long term reg like usual. Nobody notices me. I'm sad.

Last edited by jphil007; 08-25-2010 at 02:14 PM.

08-25-2010 , 03:15 PM

#2500

ZuluWarrior

adept

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 1,192

Quote:

Originally Posted by AAri Gold

what happened to count stacula? that guy used to always play like a year ago at 5-10 10-20

He plays 200nl Rush sometimes

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