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Nut Flush On a Paired Board Nut Flush On a Paired Board

02-22-2011 , 08:12 PM
Live 1-2

Villain literally just sat down and posted, he is in MP. Sits with 200, Hero covers.

Hero in BB dealt A 4. Three or four limpers, Villain checks, Hero checks BB.

Flop: 4 J 3

Checked to Villain, who bets 6 into ~14.
Hero calls, all others fold.
Turn 3, check check.
River K
Hero bets 27, Villain raises 50

Hero?

Last edited by mkpa; 02-22-2011 at 08:15 PM. Reason: stack sizes
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02-22-2011 , 08:23 PM
This either a fairly obvious bluff or K3. Because he doesn't have 44 (this hand bets turn, and you hold a 4 making it less likely), doesn't have JJ or KK (no raise preflop).

That leaves QX going for super thin value, K3 or a bluff. Reraise to 100 if you think he can call w/ Q. If not, just call because a bluff can't call a raise anyway (so raise is the same thing as call, only you risk less the small times you are beat).
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02-22-2011 , 10:55 PM
I'd make a min-raise. I think the betting pattern eliminates a flopped set, or trips on the turn. Both of those hands are betting more to protect, especially in position. Sure, 33 would play-out like this, nevertheless the river raise would be larger given the board.
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02-22-2011 , 11:03 PM
Obv never folding here... I can't see any reason a 3 of any sort checks the turn. Kinda looks like KJ or QhJx to me. Not sure you ever get a raise called by worse here, except maybe by Qh, so I can see an argument for a flat, but I prob raise for value here, since a drooly calls at 1/2 aren't unusual.
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02-23-2011 , 12:25 AM
I see a value raise is rarely good here, your either beat, or he has a hand he is never gonna call a raise with. Looks like an obv call to me
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02-23-2011 , 12:47 AM
interesting hand. Can't see villain playing JJ like that. You have a 4 so a set of fours also seems unlikely. Only other hand (which is also improbable) is quad threes.

Vast majority of the time here (95%), villain has QJx I think.

flatting here would not be terrible by any stretch.

However, if I was feeling like a shtt hot poker player at the time, i'd min raise here and expect a crying call from the Q. It would be sick though if villian 4bet you

EDIT: i'd be more likely to just flat if this is villains very first hand and he had to post, which means his hand is essentially a blind and can be ATC which would definitely put a 3x type hand in his range.
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02-23-2011 , 12:49 AM
I don't like the flop call. River call is seems fine, but I think your initial bet sizing on river is to large.
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02-23-2011 , 01:10 AM
Its a limped pot... villain could have ANYTHING. Except we have to eliminate JJ and KK from his hands.
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02-23-2011 , 01:21 AM
so... no one ever considers folding?
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02-23-2011 , 01:25 AM
I guess I'm the only one who doesn't like how this hand was played at all.

I raise flop and if a heart hits I'm betting large...I believe his range is scewed far from hearts and on this board we have alot of Fe...along with the fact there Are a bazillion turn cards to help if we are called on flop which I'd assume is a low% of time we are called.
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02-23-2011 , 02:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rizasutton
I guess I'm the only one who doesn't like how this hand was played at all.

I raise flop and if a heart hits I'm betting large...I believe his range is scewed far from hearts and on this board we have alot of Fe...along with the fact there Are a bazillion turn cards to help if we are called on flop which I'd assume is a low% of time we are called.
only problem is, villains at this level just aren't folding top pair on the turn.

They aren't. You can rep that flush all you like, and villain will look you dead in the eye and say, "You got the flush huh?"

and then villain will call you. If I had a nickel for everytime villains at this level called my turn and river double barrel while saying out loud, "I know i'm beat" i'd have a lot of nickels.

Come turn, best play is to pot control and hope for a river A, 4, or heart.

getting a check check is exactly what we want.

trying to steal turn at this level is on the spewy side. Take the free card and be happy.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mkpa
so... no one ever considers folding?
The reason we aren't folding is because at this level, villains pay you off so often with top pair or an inferior flush or even trips.

Yes, even on a four to a flush board. Happens so often that folding to a river bet in this situation is absolutely out of the question.

The only real question, is are we feeling gangsta enough to go for a value 3bet raise here

like I said above, flatting is not terrible, but no way in hell i'm folding at this level. 95% of the time, our flush is the nuts here.

If this happened to be the 5% where villain has a FH or quads, so be it.
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02-23-2011 , 03:25 AM
Is it irrelevant then to say that I folded and was right? I said "I just dont see what you can have thats not j3" and folded face up and he showed me the j3. That it NOT a brag though, because a lot of people that are definitely a lot better than me have said that they call. Is this fold actually -EV in the long run and should I always be calling here?
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02-23-2011 , 03:29 AM
I'd never show the table you can throw away a hand like this, mkpa
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02-23-2011 , 03:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PeanutHead
I'd never show the table you can throw away a hand like this, mkpa
why, exactly? i turned 21 like 2 weeks ago and still have a very limited understanding of "live meta-game" i guess. if anything, wouldnt this get people to spew to me more often?
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02-23-2011 , 05:51 AM
Call > Fold > Raise

I don't know if folding is that bad an option. I'm always wary of the standard 1-2 villain who plays all streets passive then pops the river - they almost always have the goods. I'm surprised more people didn't put 43 or J3 in his range since he was in blind.

Raising is the worst option. 1-2 players (generally) call too much but even they can lay down the second-nut flush on a paired board when the river gets 3-bet - you're only ever getting called by better hands (or raised).

Last edited by KKcracked; 02-23-2011 at 05:52 AM. Reason: Realised villain bet flop, but my point about folding still stands.
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02-23-2011 , 06:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by masaraksh
Its a limped pot... villain could have ANYTHING. Except we have to eliminate JJ and KK from his hands.
Totally disagree with this statement - particulary in response to JJ. Yes, KK will raise. Plenty of people will limp with JJ ... It's no one's favorite hand. Most people hate it as much as AK. So amateurs will limp with it and if they don't flop a set and there are overcards, they will fold to action. I've discussed JJ with several people live and a couple of them have told me this is how they play it. It's weird - when I raise, I miss; when I limp, I flop a set (or quads).

I think I just call this raise. It's only a minraise (it says $27 was bet and the raise was to $50; that doesn't make sense, though unless it was an all-in). He was in the blind and any number of full houses have you beat here - K3, J3, 33, 34, 44.
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02-23-2011 , 06:38 AM
One thought on even considering a fold: players will go crazy with their non-nut flushes on a three-flush board. Once that fourth heart comes, there just aren't as many live $1/$2 players who raise the non-nuts. yes, the Q could be making a raise here, but a solid percentage will just call there.
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02-23-2011 , 07:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mkpa
why, exactly? i turned 21 like 2 weeks ago and still have a very limited understanding of "live meta-game" i guess. if anything, wouldnt this get people to spew to me more often?
Because you want to leave people guessing as exactly what you could have that would fold. Showing you could fold the top flush on a paired board means that the aggressive players will continually be raising you on the river in that situation, knowing you'll fold everything but the nuts.
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02-23-2011 , 04:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10
Because you want to leave people guessing as exactly what you could have that would fold. Showing you could fold the top flush on a paired board means that the aggressive players will continually be raising you on the river in that situation, knowing you'll fold everything but the nuts.
The absolute worst thing you can do at my table is fold such a strong hand face up. I see that, and i'm gang raping you all day long.

I say this all the time, you are better off just not talking during a hand, and not showing a hand when you are mucking.

So many players are in a rush to be Meta-game super stars that they just skip over the solid fundamentals like: keeping your mouth shut and giving your villains as little information as possible.
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02-23-2011 , 10:11 PM
pretty strong fold.
getting 3:1, you would need a read that is the equivalent of him showing you his cards.
you're a better player than me, cuz i'm snap calling, and not even thinking of raising, but i'm a donk, so...
sometimes I think i was a better player in a way when I could make a lay down like this, just when you know you're beat.
I missed one just the other day when I was getting mindlessly good odds to call a very loose short stack who had called off @1/3 of his stack PF when the flop came 77X.
the guy was so bad, it was just glaringly obv he had a 7, he had already made some odds defying call PF earlier, so was fully capable of having the 7.
I had flipped my hand up, just a pair of queens, and even when the river was a 7, i was really sure he had it, before the slowroll.
I called cuz he could easily think 99 is the nuts, and be excited, but this was over the top.
he had the nut 78 high sooted.
I still made the call, pretty much disregarding the read in favor of going w/ the obv correct mathematical decision instead.
but when some noob is literally falling out of his chair, and had prob never had a hand this big, and looks like it, then I think it is possible to put someone on exactly 1 hand, and make a very sick laydown.

your hand,
probably not a profitable fold though, at this level.

^^^^
and agree very very much w/ djih about showing a big laydown, NEVER do this is my advice; prob the singlemost worst situation, for you, in which you could ever show without having to, in a cashgame> it's literally like handing them the keys to the castle, players that normally would'nt,are going to take shots at you, and it casts a fog over the game for you, where you don't know where you're at. now you are playing the guessing game, and you're having to expend too much energy on the info war, which you are now losing.
DUCY?

Last edited by stampler; 02-23-2011 at 10:22 PM.
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02-23-2011 , 11:11 PM
You should be calling here in this situation. You're getting the odds to do so considering that you will be good fairly frequently.

Raising makes little sense because there's no way he will call with worse, and if he 4-bet shoves you're in a horrible spot.

If your read was as pristine as you believe, and you were right, there was no reason to post this. Also, you said you didn't want to brag, but when you posted "so ..... no one considers a fold?", it became obvious that you either called and lost, or folded and saw a FH from your opponent.
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02-23-2011 , 11:13 PM
Also, I could go either way on showing, but it really makes little difference if you do. You could conceivably take advantage of people trying to blow you off hands on the river during future hands just as easily as it could hurt you.
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