This hand was played at Charlestown Race Track. Table was playing pretty big with a couple 1k+ stacks. Standard open from the player UTG was 20. I was on the button and held KcQc. UTG raised to 20, 2 more callers, I limp, and BB completes.

Flop ($100)
AcQd4c

BB($350 in stack), UTG bets $75 (roughly $75 to go), players shoves for $160 , I have roughly $400 left. Is this a call everytime given its clear that UTG is also called. I knew BB was folding because he had already tried to muck his cards before I acted and the dealer handed them back. In the hand I had UTG on a big ace, but not necessairly AK and the person who shoved on a similar hand.

So for me it was essentially $160 to win ($100+$160+$150) or $410. about 2.5 to 1 on my money. Do I have to believe one or both of my cards are live here to make this call?

Thanks, sorry about my format, its one of my few strat posts.

Best.

Before your call the pot is $410:$160 your call = 2.5:1 with two cards to come. We're talking about pot odds that are almost worthless based on your read. You've got at best 9 outs to nut-flush if no one's got a set on the flop plus you've got two Queens for trips. But this only if no set is out there on the flop and this is very important for you to take into your estimation. The King is not an out for sure. So, what we have here is, at best QQ and all the other nine cards that will flush you to the nuts. But if you are accurate with your estimation and give both villains an Ace each then you are loosing for even money by the river like 46:54 against both players as a group. Even against one player you still losing for even money if that player's got an Ace. But the 2.5:1 pot odds will compensate for this a little but it will create fluctuations in your bankroll. You've got some money to make based on 2.5:1 pot odds in the long run like installment payments, so to speak. However, you've got a small edge no matter how you slice it. If a set is out there, brother, you are drawing almost dead. The Queens are no good and two of the will pair the board by the river.

I wouldn't draw in this case if there are no money left behind. Without implied odds this hand is a small winner in the long run. In limit I will draw but in NL I'm looking for big edges in big pots, else this type of situation is for birds.

Che,

I hope ur not suggesting we fold:

flop: Ac-Qd-4c
Hero KcQc 39.88%
AK, AQ, AJ, 44 33.07%
AK, AQ, AJ, QQ 27.04%

The decision should be between calling and shoving.

Shoving is fine since u have some non-zero amount of FE if UTG has AK. And he always folds AJ.
Calling and hoping UTG overcalls so that u get better action on ur $ is not bad either.
You really cant play this hand wrong... unless u fold.

edit: I think I like calling best since the AI player proabably has u beat right now. Might as well invite UTG in.

Well shoving does nothing because MP's bet puts UTG in. So there are no implicit odds. I was just wondering the math on this, because at the time I thought it was right on the fence. I am a novice at poker stove, so your input on how to calculate that would be helpful.

UTG hand ranges A9-AK.
MP AK, AQ, 44, A4 are in his range.

Didnt know the bold b/c you didnt indicate UTG's stack size in ur post.

If both players' ranges are A-x heavy its a snapcall. Actually its just always a snapcall.

With the exact ranges u gave above:
Hero: 39%
UTG: 11.5
MP 49.5%

Absolute worse case scenario:
KcQc 24%
QQ 73%
*c*c 3%

Worse case scenario vs 1 player:
KcQc 29.5%
QQ 70.5%

vs both players w/ top pair:
KcQc 46.94%
A* 26.53%
A* 26.53%

vs 1 player w/ top pair:
KcQc 47.72%
A* 52.28%


edit: I'll pm u about the stoving

Shove

Nh

I try to get at least 3/1 in pot odds. I know that is nit picking. But I would fold your middle pair is no good you know villain has an ace. So your drawing to a k or another Q all cards you really don't want to see. And if you lose half your stack will be gone.

No, I'm not suggesting to fold. We're still drawing to the nuts plus have that pair of Queens. What I'm saying is that we don't have a big edge if both villains have an Ace so that they both have top pair. We will make money but it will not be a big edge and the ride will be very volatile. For small stacks to up to 100BB I will shove probably. I can make a case for a shove and I can make a case for a call. I cannot make a case for a fold. You're right! I cannot say: Go ahead and FOLD! I cannot say that. You're absolutely correct. But still, are the other two villains with Aces both of them? I'm not clear on that one. What's going on with the villains? Do they have Aces?

Che,

Why isn't AA in any of the villain's ranges? This changes equity calcs... UTG can clearly have AA here.

Utg had Aj off and mp had 44...so mp was at top of range...I ended up calling which is the same as shoving here. Turn 2 s and river 9 c for the scoop. I just wanted to know if this is a good play in the long run. I guess the answer is that its close. Utg never has aa.

UTG will never open raise to 20, and then bet 75 into 100 on a wet A-high flop that smacks everyones range?

It really doesnt change much:

KcQc 39.32%
AA, QQ, AK, AQ, AJ 29.57%
AK, AQ, AJ, 44 31.11%

sets were already included in above calcs. If we're up against a set we really dont care whether its 444 or AAA here, its basically the same thing. The only small reason we'd rather be up against 444 is vs that hand we have a runner-runner boat draw.

Well, that is exactly what I have been saying all along. One villain got an Ace and the other got a set. Well, you are drawing very thin. Even if one villain got a set against us it will be almost the same situation. But still we cannot ford with nut flush draw plus a pair. We absolutely cannot fold this hand. If we fold this hand, we may as well give up poker for good because there's no hands that we can play from that point on. I would have called or shove for sure. So, we won this pot. That's great. Now, the next time we may lose and the next-next time we may win again but over the long run in the same setup we will accumulate some money but it will not be much. You've got to understand and be aware of that. And, neighbor, if you realized from the start that you've got an edge but it was a small edge, that in itself is a good thing because you know what you're doing. This is all about in NL. To know what you're doing and where you stand, bro

I'm glad for you. Again, if you realized at the flop that you have a small edge, a +EV, small but you've got it and you made the correct decision by calling. If this is the case, brother, I'm glad for you because a smart player won the pot and you've been aware that EV may be small but still positive. This is playing smart bro, so to speak. That's a good hold'em player.

Che,

Easiest ship of your life

Thanks for the replies!

easy call/shove, I never pass up +ev and don't care about varience and if you worry a lot about that then you may not be rolled for this game.