Thank you for the nice words

ThankyouGpreflopplanisfine,imoG

Concur. I think this is happens 10% of the time he has AK, maximum.

Normally I would be more inclined to agree with you. However, there are a few details here.

1) 3b sizing is small, which leads me to widen V's range.

2) Hero said she has just limited amount of time at the table, and that V should be considered an Unknown.

3) I am way more concerned about a 1/2 pot Cbet on this flop then I am about an overshove.

4) Unless you are eliminating [QQ-, AK] from V's range, then the fact that H has AKs makes the bottom of V's range more significant (from an available combinations standpoint).

5) I agree that fold pre is a good line, in general. But for <= 100bb, I'm probably finding a way to stack off with AKs.

6) Since H flatted the 3b, we are stuck with V's entire 3b range going into the flop -- and I don't have any issue with the notion that V would shove with almost his entire range OTF in this HH. So discount parts of the range, but I don't think you can eliminate the bottom of it entirely. If H 4b and was called, then obviously, V's range would be much stronger on a flop shove.

Yea, I did see where OP said she has only been at the table for a short time. Guess it depends how long she has been there exactly. Personally, I think including JJ,TT in an unknown's 3 bet range is too wide. And even given a short amount of time at the table, the limited description is enough for me to eliminate those holdings because I think you would notice someone aggressive enough to 3 bet JJ,TT pretty quickly. So QQ+, discounted AK may be a more reasonable range, which I am guessing is still a fold pf.

You think 1/2 PSB means QQ more often? If so, how come?

It has been my experience that the average player sizes his bets inversely with respect to hand strength.

In this HH, I'd expect to see AK and JJ about 5x as likely as AA or QQ when V overbet-shoves.

I agree too
I didn't make the analysis because it is more likely to happen; I made it because it was among one of the tougher situations. A better/more comprehensive diagram would be a HUGE decision tree involving situations when v cbet 1/2 pot, 2/3 pot, pot, shove, check back, with all his possible holdings and their corresponding probabilities, and our available options. I am actually thinking are there tools available for running a thorough analysis like that, instead of doing everything by hand?

Is it small? I thought it is pretty standard ($35 after one $3 limp and one $10 open)? If I am wrong, what sizing is considered small/standard/big?

pokerstove

flopzilla

Here's what I have on this hand. These are the results from pokerstove:

Board: Qh 7h 3s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.899% 37.73% 07.17% 4856 922.50 { AhKh }
Hand 1: 55.101% 47.93% 07.17% 6169 922.50 { QQ+, JcJh, AKs }

I'm giving V all available combos of QQ, KK and AA. Also, 1 combo of JJ (including Jh), and the remaining AKs combos.

This does not take into account any other spazz factor (maybe he has TxTh once in a while?). But IMO, you can take that into account by inflating your equity by 2-5% or so.

This also does not take into account whether V would not shove OTF with QQ or AA. But again, inflate your equity by 2-5% or so for a quick estimate.

Since we need about 43% equity, this should be a call.

You can then solve for stack sizes. For example, if we were 200bb effective, and the preflop action was the same, our required equity would be $565/1140 or 49%. Note though, now V is overbet shoving $565 into $85. Gotta wonder why he would do that.

Its going to depend on what the normal open sizing is. If at your 1/3 game the normal open is $10, then the 3b to $35 maybe isn't that small. But I doubt $10 is the standard open in your game. In the 1/3 and 2/3 games I've played in, standard open is $15, with $20 being common. In these games, 3b to $45-50 or more.

For me, I usually just 3b to the biggest number that I think folks will call. For example: 1/3NL at TheBike I'll 3b to $75 or more. At the 3/5NL game at Commerce, I 3b to $125 all the time and get 2 callers, and LOL cuz its a $200 buyin capped game! At Foxwoods 1/2NL, my usual 3b size is $40-60, and there seems to be no shortage of callers.

Does Pokerstove calculate odds solely based on hand strength? Could we somehow incorporate decision trees/probabilities/implied odds into Pokerstove?

Great point!

This hand is very poorly played from the open limp.

Sadly Hero limp calls, smashes the flop and is still completely lost.

We have no real range on V other than Hero as not been at the table long and V seem quiet.

If we are going to include AKs, JJ in V shoving range we need to include AQ, KQ as well.

Double post

Why the UTG limp? Planning a limp-raise but didnt b/c it was a tight player? I'm just gonna raise UTG.

1. Shove would be really strange but yeah without FE you gotta dump this one.
2. Being deep shouldn't incline you to just call because when you hit you aren't really disguised. I don't like calling unless he bets under 40 which is unlikely. If he bets 50+ I like the ch/shove, your equity + FE should be plenty enough to make this an +EV play as long as you don't mind the swings.

I use the apd equity calculator since pokerstove isn't available anymore. It doesn't have a decision tree or implied odds. However lets say I give villain 100% of combos of hand A, 100% of combos hand B, and 50% of hand C, I'll just include half of the combos of hand C so you can sorta include the probability that villain will play combos of hands x% of the time.

raise pre to 10-13 depending on table

as played a limp/rr is fine to 85-95ish and obviously getting it in

as played i check/shove

as somene said if he doesnt have AA kk QQ he may fold, aq will call but unlikelyhe has it

~50% chance he has tt jj 99 or ak then c/shive will work 80-90% of the time

Just to be clear... this is the range I have V on when H checks and V shoves the flop.

I have different range estimates for other actions.

A tight player 3bet (not just 2bet). It's fine to re-evaluate our limp/reraise plan at this point, imo.