My first thought was to call.
But I wound up agreeing with this.
Quote:
Originally Posted by de4df1sh
Assuming we need to make our flush to win and that at least one of our outs is dirty we are round bout 1/3 to win.
My guess is that these other peeps probably fold here a lot and the most common scenario is we call and take it heads up with a straight that likely beats ours or a set and lose a lot.k
The pro-ish guy was a little spewy but smart and was unlikely to call with a dominated draw or anything goofy. While I did not think he was that strong, I wouldn't be too happy if he shoved over me.
The lady would probably only call with a draw. Maybe an OES but I figured she was more likely to have a FD. (I said she was loose passive, but it's not like she was playing 40% of hands)
There was no real reason to think the shover had gone bananas with QhTh or something.
As it turned out, the lady did call and the shover's straight held. I made a good fold because no heart came.
I just worked this stuff out now:
HU against his straight, I was 39%.
Against a straight and a worse FD I was 31%.
HU against a set I was 26%.
Against a set and a worse FD I was 21%
Against a set and a straight, I was 25%.
I'd be calling $164 with $246 already in the pot, assuming I can add. Putting in 40% of pot.
If the lady called behind, I'd be putting in 31% of the pot.
Simple arithmetic is not my strong suit, but I think I got that right.
Obviously, I'm giving Vs a lot of credit here, and there is a chance my read on the shover was wrong and he wanted to go home and let it rip with a worse draw.
On the other hand, Mr. Semi-pro did raise the flop, and if he wasn't horsing around and then shoved, that would suck. So I think those things roughly cancel out.
So, in retrospect I guess that's a fold. Especially since variance is a fierce enemy.