Quote:
Originally Posted by sai1b0ats
you might want to run some equity calcs on that strat.
I think I gii all day here, but the EV might not be that fantastic. not a bad spot to run some FE assumptions and see where the line is.
Iffy preflop shoves are admittedly a weak point in my game so I did the calculations. However with my assumptions I still didn't get the answer that makes this anything close to an easy shove. Everyone seems to think easy shove so I'm hoping you guys can point out where I went wrong in my math or what assumptions you'd change that would make this an easy shove.
Call range assumption: TT+,AQ+
FE needed: (280-(.277*620))/84= ~1.29:1=56.3% folds
v1: opens 23.1% hands.....62/306 combos call shove
v2/3: 31.8% of hands calling 28.....62/422 combos call shove
.8*.85*.85=57.8% chance they all fold?
So ever so slightly +EV? Breakeven with rake?
I'll admit that this is closer than I initially thought but with what seems like optimistic ranges, players who may call with PPs below TT, and players behind I think the +EV of this is questionable at best and definitely not close to an easy shove.