Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot
1-3, late night @ casino
Hero, $800 UTG, should have a winning page
V1: $425 MP, sat down maybe 3 hands ago, zero reads
V2, maybe $700 BTN, bad player. Calls way too much with bad hands pre/post
Hero opens to 15 with A♥️J♥️
Folds to V1 who 3! To 45
Folds to V2 who takes it to the face
SB and BB both take it to the face also
Hero was going to fold if it just came back around without callers, but now that 3 Vs have called, I talk myself into a call
5 to the flop
Flop (218): 8♦️4♥️2♥️
SB, BB Hero all check
V1 bets 155
V2 calls
SB/BB fold
V1 has ~ 225 behind
V2 has ~ 400 behind
V2 never has 2P+ here based on flat
V1 probably has an overpair, since we block the NFD hands that might 3!
We're getting direct odds to call, are we calling or shoving?
I prefer open limping AJs in EP.
Preflop call is meh. We're getting decent implied odds over 20+ against raiser, and even more against bigger stack. And we're closing the action and will have good relative position to the field (last to act after the raiser). However we will be OOP, which lately I've come to realize just how difficult it is to get paid off OOP.
Pot is huge and worth winning. We could even be slightly in the lead if both our overs are good. Adding any FE (even a small 10%) should move us into the decent fave category. So I check/ship to this action and ride the variance train. ETA: Course, saying that off the table is easy enough, but in reality this ship would actually be nearing my rooms $700 maximum bet, which is something I've never remotely come close to before. But it's probably the best play.
GchoochooG