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NL 400 turn bluffraise w/pair+oesd NL 400 turn bluffraise w/pair+oesd

02-10-2011 , 01:35 AM
Full Tilt Poker $2/$4 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter By DeucesCracked Poker Videos

UTG+2: $400.00
MP1: $309.30
MP2: $431.00
CO: $501.50
Hero (BTN): $465.30
SB: $266.10
BB: $414.00
UTG: $627.15
UTG+1: $318.00

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is BTN with T Q
5 folds, CO raises to $12, Hero calls $12, 2 folds

Flop: ($30.00) J 9 3 (2 players)
CO bets $20, Hero calls $20

Turn: ($70.00) T (2 players)
CO bets $44, Hero requests TIME, Hero raises to $120

Villain is 14/9 over 350 hands, but with 35% steal, suggesting he is just super nitty EP and possibly MP. He has 77% flop cbet and 60% turn cbet. I run 15/12 with a fold to flop cbet of 49% and fold to turn cbet of 45%, 3bet 3%, so I look pretty nitty. I figured he could potentially fold Jx, possibly even a few better hands, as we can rep a pretty wide value range, including:

KQ: 16 combos
78s: 4 combos
JT: 9 combos
99 and 33: 6 combos

That's a total of 35 combos of very strong value hands. Is this a reasonable spot to bluffraise and shove most rivers if he calls?
NL 400 turn bluffraise w/pair+oesd Quote
02-10-2011 , 03:27 AM
i stoved his barreling range.

Board: Jh 9c 3d Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 21.532% 19.57% 01.96% 663 66.50 { QhTh }
Hand 1: 78.468% 76.51% 01.96% 2592 66.50 { 99+, 33, AdKd, AdQd, AJs, Ad9d, KQs, QJs, J9s+, T9s, AJo, KQo, QJo, J9o+ }

your hand isn't doing so well to it and i don't think you get paid off if you hit oesd, so i say go for raise w/ fold equity
NL 400 turn bluffraise w/pair+oesd Quote
02-10-2011 , 04:01 AM
I think this is a reasonable spot to raise and check behind on the river. Assuming you don't think he's cable of shoving, say, Axdd or flatting something like a set on the turn and folding on the river...
However, I would make my raise slightly larger, expecting to fold out some Jx and QQ-AA, occasional KT and hopefully get calls from draws.
NL 400 turn bluffraise w/pair+oesd Quote
02-10-2011 , 04:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Penguinz21
I think this is a reasonable spot to raise and check behind on the river. Assuming you don't think he's cable of shoving, say, Axdd or flatting something like a set on the turn and folding on the river...
However, I would make my raise slightly larger, expecting to fold out some Jx and QQ-AA, occasional KT and hopefully get calls from draws.
So you think a villain with our only reads being the stats we have will probably fold turn w/Jx and QQ-AA, and not call turn/fold river?
NL 400 turn bluffraise w/pair+oesd Quote
02-10-2011 , 04:36 AM
I'm actually thinking now that this is a better spot to call turn with our entire range for proceeding and that folding QT/T8/98/Q9 might be optimal, until we have reads and history. His bet doesn't look to me like it's really trying to create fold equity, and I don't think we have very much, despite having a clean image, being that we are OTB vs a CO open. I am very curious about what good regs have to say about what they do with their range here, though, as I definitely don't claim to be the authority.
Also, if we're going to bluff-raise here, I think we have more credibility with a raise to like ~140 that can create like an ~80% PSB on the river.
NL 400 turn bluffraise w/pair+oesd Quote
02-10-2011 , 04:38 AM
I think there are better positional spots where we can fold out Jx and QQ-AA than CO vs btn. Here I don't think we have much of a chance and that villain's calling range of a turn raise is reasonably strong enough that a river shove won't work that often and that there are enough rivers that we can't profitably shove once he calls turn.
NL 400 turn bluffraise w/pair+oesd Quote
02-10-2011 , 05:57 AM
Hmmm it's tricky imo, because while I agree that since we're co vs button and we're trying to fold out a fairly strong range (tp, overpairs) that makes it look not so great, from another angle since we're button vs co, so many more of the combos that beat tp/overpairs are in our range. If he opens ep, we can't credibly rep KQo or JTo, which comprise the bulk of a range that beats tp/overpairs.
NL 400 turn bluffraise w/pair+oesd Quote

      
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