*NG* (Delete after posting, all answers revealed at 12 EST 2/22)- 2/5 Turn Decision
02-23-2011
, 02:45 PM
Quote:
OK, a few minutes late, but here we go.
Hero raised to $100 by tossing in 4 green chips. My rational at the time was that while I've gained some SDV, it isn't much. I'm going to hate roughly 40% of the cards that can come on the river (all queens, jacks and hearts at least, and not be happy about an 8 or 3 either). The pot would be $168 and the effective stack is going to be $220. If the villain wanted to stack off, they would have bet more to make the shove on the river be easier to call if I had something. I'm representing a nut hand. I wanted to take over the hand again and control what happened on the river.
As I've thought about it more after the fact, I've been able to put more rational behind the instinctive move. The first thing is the villain is a level 2 thinker. They are thinking about what I have, not just their hand value. Therefore, a raise on the turn should shock them (and actually did, as the villain immediately did the classic tell of moving away from the table). Old guys don't bluff raise on the turn.
Second, the line makes sense for a nut flush. I could raise pf with an A-broadway hand. I checked the flop looking for a free card and got it. I make a small raise that is enough to get stacks in on the river easily, but offer nearly 4:1, so another "FD" is getting odds to call.
I didn't have the villain on a set because their bet should have been bigger to protect their hand.
Finally, I had position so I could use the raise as a blocking bet. If called on the turn, the likely result was a check on the river that I could check behind. Otherwise, I'm likely to be facing a far larger bet on the river if I just call.
The results. After the villain pushed back from the table, they went into the tank. The villain exposes the T
looking for a reaction. I'm in Patrick Antonious world at that point, so there is no reaction. More tanking, then a fold. Hero collects the pot.
As for my plan, I'm folding on the turn to a re-raise. If called, I'm checking behind on the river if checked to. Any hand that calling a raise on the turn will call anything up to stacks on the river, which means a hand that beats mine. If facing a bet on the river, I'd fold. The villain won't lead with less than TP under those circumstances except for a small % of the time, not enough to call.
Hero raised to $100 by tossing in 4 green chips. My rational at the time was that while I've gained some SDV, it isn't much. I'm going to hate roughly 40% of the cards that can come on the river (all queens, jacks and hearts at least, and not be happy about an 8 or 3 either). The pot would be $168 and the effective stack is going to be $220. If the villain wanted to stack off, they would have bet more to make the shove on the river be easier to call if I had something. I'm representing a nut hand. I wanted to take over the hand again and control what happened on the river.
As I've thought about it more after the fact, I've been able to put more rational behind the instinctive move. The first thing is the villain is a level 2 thinker. They are thinking about what I have, not just their hand value. Therefore, a raise on the turn should shock them (and actually did, as the villain immediately did the classic tell of moving away from the table). Old guys don't bluff raise on the turn.
Second, the line makes sense for a nut flush. I could raise pf with an A-broadway hand. I checked the flop looking for a free card and got it. I make a small raise that is enough to get stacks in on the river easily, but offer nearly 4:1, so another "FD" is getting odds to call.
I didn't have the villain on a set because their bet should have been bigger to protect their hand.
Finally, I had position so I could use the raise as a blocking bet. If called on the turn, the likely result was a check on the river that I could check behind. Otherwise, I'm likely to be facing a far larger bet on the river if I just call.
The results. After the villain pushed back from the table, they went into the tank. The villain exposes the T
looking for a reaction. I'm in Patrick Antonious world at that point, so there is no reaction. More tanking, then a fold. Hero collects the pot.As for my plan, I'm folding on the turn to a re-raise. If called, I'm checking behind on the river if checked to. Any hand that calling a raise on the turn will call anything up to stacks on the river, which means a hand that beats mine. If facing a bet on the river, I'd fold. The villain won't lead with less than TP under those circumstances except for a small % of the time, not enough to call.
I seriously doubt villian folds any med str K.
02-23-2011
, 02:52 PM
02-23-2011
, 11:17 PM
02-24-2011
, 01:13 AM
02-24-2011
, 01:35 AM
