Thought this was a really interesting spot and wanted some opinions.

1/3 NL at winstar, most everyone with decent stacks. Main villian $125, me $400. Villian playing very tight and passive. My prelop and flop play on this hand is probably questionable, but would really like to focus on the river.

Villian limps utg, I limp 8h7h, other limpers. 6 or 7 way to flop.

Flop 8c 6s 4d. check around. Turn 7s, check around. River 8s. Checks to villian who bets $15. I've got 3 or 4 people behind me yet to act plus the blinds left that have checked.

Is just calling here completely insane? Feel like a big raise never gets called and that villian doesn't ever have much here.

I think in a bigger game against good/aggressive players, calling has some merit, but at this level people usually don't raise flushes here so maybe at this level just make it like $75?

PF seems fine to me in a passive game. If it's likely to get raised behind you then I'd just fold this.

Probably betting flop for value, think checking here is a bit too passive and just allows your opponents to realize their equity.

I'm raising this river 100% of the time. I don't see river getting raised too often by someone behind (basically only smaller boats, which are unlikely, and big flushes). Raise to $60 and expect villain to call with flushes, straights, etc.

Pre is no big deal. I'm fine with calling or folding. Probably fold normally, but whatever.

Agree with betting the flop. Fine with 50-60% pot. Not looking to build a huge pot.

Turn check is of course fine.

Calling is completely insane, thanks for asking.

Why do you think villain is weak? Tight passive guy bets 15 into 7 people.

60-75 sounds OK.

But I probably shove for the same reason that shoving here would be a terrible bluff.

Yes it's a ridiculous shove, and it might not get called often, but I think gets called some % of the time such that it's more +EV than a smaller raise, and, again, such that I wouldn't do it as a bluff at 1/3 because I'd get called often enough that it'd be spew.

yeah, that's a good point. He checked flop and turn, plus we have 87. So he probably has a flush, right?

I wouldn't say "probably a flush," but at least something with absolute strength (vs. relative for this board).

He and anyone else can have a flush, a straight, trips (8x), a worse boat, etc.

Someone might even have a hilarious overpair.

You have to put more money in the pot; the only question is do you go 60, 75, or shove (that's my vote) and see if someone snaps.

And I'll just say, if I went ahead and posted this same hand (with a note that another player folded pre and accidentally showed 87o, so I know those are blocked just as well when I hold them myself) where hero held AKo, and I was like "how about I shove river as a bluff?" people would tell me it's the most horrible bluff ever and that I'm never going to get enough folds for it to be +EV.

And I'd be like, OK, cool... by the way, I actually DO have 87, so how about I shove for VALUE?

The more I think about this spot, the more I like a massive over-bet/shove. Hero can get called by flushes, straights, and inferior fullhouses.

Also, bet flop for value.

I don't like the suggestion "bet flop for value".

We know we will LATER get value from the HH.

But on the flop we have medium pair that happens to be top pair OOP, with no kicker, and a gutshot, seven ways - not my idea of "value".

Betting flop for value makes perfect sense. It's also part semi-bluff.

We have top pair and get value from 54, 65, 55, 77, 5x, 7x, 97, T9, back door draws, maybe 6x, 4x, 22, light peels, etc. Maybe even more important, we get folds from hands with substantial equity w/over cards. You can imagine all the overs in villains' ranges and the collective equity of those hands that readily fold on the flop. And when we do get called, we have the best hand a decent % of the time. When we don't have the best hand, an 8 and a 5 are excellent cards for us. It'd be an even better bet if there was 1 heart on board, but I'm OK without it.

Checking the flop planning to check/call is meh.

Checking the flop and seeing it check through and the turn comes a T,J,Q,K,A, etc., basically > 50% of the deck, well you just allowed people to see a turn with over cards they would have folded on the flop but that are now well ahead of hero.

Like I said, I prefer around 50-60% of pot... pretty small. Keep the pot small, and that size does we want it to do - get value from a relatively weak segment of hands while also getting people to fold away equity with their over cards. Around half pot is perfect for all goals.

+1 to everything Will said. But I also wanted to respond to this specifically:

Doesn't Villain basically ALWAYS have much here, in an absolute sense? A tight passive Villain is just so rarely betting into 95 opponents here with a marginal hand or as a bluff, and tons of 8x & flushes make sense, plus maybe some oddly played straights and lower boats.

I just want to add that in a deep game with good opponents you have even more reason to raise. It's less likely to work but if there is another $300 to win, even a 10% chance of winning is worth more then another $15 now. And getting anybody else to call after you isn't a sure thing. In a game with good opponents the only hand that flatting might keep in is weak straights, even something like A8 is a fold after an EP river bet and call on a paired board after both straight and flush get there.

I would typically fold this hand in EP. I would try to wait for a couple of more limpers (or LP) before getting in there with this hand.

I think I'm fine with a flop check, although I'd be ok with betting it too. I think I'd more lean towards betting it because if our hand improves it most likely puts 4-to-a-straight on board so our IO our low, so it's not a big loss if we get raised off this draw on the flop. ETA: Ya, much more on board with everyone else's thoughts about betting being better here.

I'm cool with checking the turn.

I just don't think too many people are going to get out of line behind us. If no one was aggressive enough to bet a turn draw when checked to them twice, I'm not convinced they're going to be aggressive enough to raise their made draw on a paired board. So I'd just raise it myself.

Villain is playing tight and just bet about a PSB into the field, so he definitely has something. He could have the flush, he could have the straight (which he slowplayed OOP on the turn), he could have an 8 (slowplayed for much the same reasons we slowplayed our 8x), heck, he could even have a worse fullhouse (slowplayed until the river due to 4-to-a-straight on board). Pot is about $30, he's got a smallish stack of about $110 left. He's unlikely to pay off any raise with a mediocre hand, so let's just hope he has the goods. So I shove.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I bet this flop. I also like the limp pre. Definitely raising the river, but only to about $45 -- anything more is a big raise and a lot of money at these stakes, which people seem to pay attention to more than pot size, etc. Hard to call/raise with anything except the nut flush (which is bad for us) or the A-high flush (or a smaller boat).