Feel like someone should point out he has at least one (probably two) combo. of J8s if he has 86o.


Personally given I'd range him mostly on air or better on the river, I mostly don't bet. Esp. worthwhile in that we can check back river and he has to show (and he'll continue to be two to our left). Also some value on us showing 75s (although some value in showing just a 5 if we get a fold).


Bet 150 assuming we get called by bluff catchers is interesting, although I worry an aggressive 2-5 player will find a decent number of "lol, H never has 86" shoves. But maybe "out to get hero" means he will be happy to call 150 with J9 on the river?

I'm not sure I agree that betting smaller doesn't get more calls, maybe with hero's image of being nit/tight it's more likely to look value (but then nit/tight players don't often 3 barrel for half pot with nothing) ... and V probably knows he should call more often the smaller H bets.

id bet bigger ott ~2/3ish but i dont think its a huge difference and now id bet the river. i think if you want to check a street id do it earlier in the hand but i dont think the offsuit Ten is enough of a reason to stop betting once you get here like this. im skeptical about betting AA on the flop 5 ways or whatever with any kind of regularity and i think pre is much better played as an overlimp (our hand doesn't really make nutted hands very often in multiway pots and it doesnt look that likely to me that you have any kind of fold equity pre regardless of if theyre needling you for being tight). if he raises the river we can figure it out, but your range is going to be primarily trips+ (unless the guy is whale or w/e i think its v ambitious to go for 3 with like QQ when the flop is 5 ways), it should be very easy to find enough calls vs a xr. most likely fold this and call with trips / STR blocker or with the best kickers and go from there, but again cross that bridge when it happens.

also what Chaos is saying about 7x vs AA is clearly right and i can't blv people are arguing with him about it

also, if he has 86o and gets to the river like this, his range has to be wide enough to value bet against lol. think of all the 9x, t8o, tx, 55 stuff hes going to have

Bolded doesn't make sense to me as a general sort of principle. There is always a risk when we value bet river in position that we get check raised. Let's say you are facing a standard loose-passive player in the blinds, and we know when he check-raises river he has 0 bluffs. You have AA and the board is K7236 -- let's say it is a single raised pot and you bet flop and turn. There is of course a risk if you value bet river that Villain will check/raise in which case you have an easy fold because he's a passive player who presumably never bluffs. Are you not betting on the river for value because you would have to fold to a check-raise? Aren't you going for value versus KQ/KJ/KT/K9/K8 which are all in V's range?

BTW 99 is 3 combos and 86 is 16 combos max -- so we lose to around 20 combos max. Villain has 12 combos of T8, 9 more combos of Txhh, 11 more combos of JT -- and then 70+ combos of 9x (A9-98 is 72 plus the smaller suited 9x). So we beat >100 combos of Tx/9x and only lose to around 20 combos of better value (assuming he never donks river or check/raises flop/turn with 86). We also beat missed heart draws. So we only get check/raised less than 20/120 times, so like at most 15% of the time. That's a very small risk!

You said he was a very loose player but then the examples you gave were that (1) he was playing suited one and two gappers. Also, (2) he bluffed off 150 a couple of times. Example (1) is possibly too loose but not to the extent of playing 86o. It might not even be too loose: Playing suited gappers in a limped pot in MP/LP or even a raised pot given appropriate table dynamics is not that unreasonable. Example (2) doesn't actually say anything about how loose he is unless you saw him showdown a garbage hand -- it more says how aggressive he is. If you've seen him play 40% of hands over a small sample of couple hours he could just be getting a run of good cards and not be particularly loose.

I just find it curious that you said he's a Very Loose player in your OP and then gave examples of behaviors that weren't direct evidence of that claim.

Nevertheless if he's bad enough to have 86o (i.e., he's giving away money by entering a 5way pot in worst position with absolute trash), then he's bad enough to have loads of offsuit 9x and Tx hands and he's also probably sticky enough to call a value bet on the river with those hands. It would be unusual/contradictory to assume he's so sticky pre that he calls 86o but then super disciplined post to the point he folds 9x on the turn or river. So value bet.

I was having a hard time at the table figuring out the math of all the combos and just how much he was gunning for me and what that meant about him opening up his range. What you just said is good advice. One discrepancy to consider, that I did consider in real time that kind of complicates things (at least it did for me) is he is not checking calling his 9x at 100% frequency. He might check call it at 40%, raise it at 30% and fold it at 30%. And if we factor in the 20 combos you picked plus one or three combos of 1010, and one or four combos of J8sÂ…..if after we value bet and get raised, is it a mandatory call off, because I decided that once I value bet I was calling off his raise. Because at least some frequency maybe 33% he was CR jamming his air. In real time I thought that about 1/3 the time hes folding, 1/3 hes calling and 1/3 he is raising. He was by no means a good player. And as was pointed out and I did not really get into muchÂ….he was entering or raising pots I was in and I could tell it was because it was to put pressure on me. At no other time at that table in 6 hours or so did I feel that from anyone else. Also a Very hard opponent to range. He had an extreme exploitable problem I did not know about until an hour or so later so my numbers may have been off in real time. But for sure one of the most difficult opponents to range in awhile.

That's true but in this spot it's different because his c/r's could include bluffs, so if we've already decided we have to fold to a c/r I would rather just get to showdown instead of letting him win with a bluff (when deep). I'm usually only betting vs that guy if I'm calling off a big raise since it would be horrific if we let him bluff the pot away from us after we flopped trips.

But that's just me

I don't think I've ever seen a player check/call twice with a flopped top pair and then check/raise river turning their showdown value into a bluff. Perhaps the solver could make this play some of the time with 98 blocking boats and straights, but I cannot remember having seen a player do that in live game in my thousands of hours of play. Maybe it's happened a few times while I've been playing but it is such a rare event I've forgotten by now. FWIW Bart Hanson has a whole section on the CLP website dedicated to live reads he's accumulated over the years and he lists this one read as a common one at low stakes: player's are very reluctant to turn their showdown value into a bluff.

Some points: If he's gunning for you he's possibly check/raising a lot his draws on the flop/turn rather than waiting until river to do it. Checking three times from out of position is risky when he has air because you can just check back a hand like AK/AQ on the river and he loses, or you can slow down and check back an overpair which you cannot take for3 streets of value. So I would not worry too much about him check/raising you with air on the river. If he had the inclination to pull the trigger he would have done so earlier in the hand IMO.


TBH I don't think his range is all that difficult to come to terms with. Exact numbers are impossible to pin down. But most of his range is 9x and then a much smaller amount of missed draws that he decided to not raise despite the fact he'd been raising you all night. He can have 86 and I think he would check that hand OTR. Doubt he has 7x based on timing tells and the fact he checked three times. Maybe he has 99 or like one combo of TT that didn't 3bet pre, but that's such a small part of his range I would not factor it in to the analysis.

His range is mostly 1-pair like 9x/Tx, and then a much smaller amount of missed draws and straights/boats. If he is very loose pre and does have 86o in preflop range then he will have about 100 combos of 1-pair, 20 combos of missed draws, and 20 combos of straights/boats. If he is only somewhat loose pre then he does not have 86o in range but could still have Q9o/K9o/A9o and it's probably much more favorable for you because his straight+ combos go down a ton but he should still have a fair amount of 9x.

this has to be some kind of soul read thread where you checked the river and lost the hand lol. like come on. the guy is gunning for you, 2 fds bricked and your value range is extremely narrow in a spot where hes likely to have a ton of bluff catchers. its a random dude at 1/3 you think is flatting 86o vs a 5x oop with 3 people left to act and we're treating it like its linus and hes never going to call the river with a range 7x is ahead of but is going to randomly run a 200bb bluff on the turn or the river where we can't bet our hand. im all for analysis but some of the assumptions getting made in this thread seem wild to me.

edit: didnt realize it was 1/2 and we 7.5xed. if you think he shows up here pre with 86o hes a whale not a regular

if you think hes xring 1/3 of his 9x you should absolutely snap call the river after you bet. hes going to end up way overbluffing here and you will be printing. (i dont think anyone is actually doing that)

He plays all the time from what he was saying. And plays a lot of 2/5. I assure you this is not a soul read thread. I wish it was. Nor am I suggesting he would not call river with a range 7x is ahead of. He for sure will. In real time I had a very hard time assessing the number of combos that was, what percentage of hands it was to the ones I beat, and just how often he was shoving the river no matter what he had, if I bet how much and if it was a bet fold or a bet call as my gut said. In the end I should have went with my gut feeling. I didnt and overthought it. One person has pretty much hit the nail on the head throughout this thread and I wish I had the clear thinking he did in this spot. three seconds after feeling like I made a pretty large mistake on the river it was confirmed. Another person ranged the villain really well in the first five or ten posts of the thread. But again I think the poster that hit the nail on the head I learned something from and realized things I did not before posting.

A lot of people in here made some really good posts and points, and many more than one person has given a better response than what I came up with to end the hand.

i was talking about the responses to your post. i think you played it ok if you bet the river but im curious what happened that turned this into a thread worthy hand

If you want to read the garbage to the end then you can let me know just how much you did not like the thread.


Spoiler 1. 1 of 4 things happened

1. I check back and miss value.
2. I bet $175 and V snaps with a better hand
3. I bet $125 get CR by complete air and fold
4. I bet half pot get CR and call rand get shown Im not winning the pot

Spoiler 2. Villain does not have the last 7.

Spoiler 3. Villain laughs at me. Maybe this is the part of the story that makes it threadworthy to you.

well hopefully for you, 1 happened

That's definitely a reason why his range could be super wide there. Even if you had aces and he called with ATC, his goal would be to flop 2 pair and crack you so he can needle you. Some players take these things too personally, even if it means playing hands they should be folding in EP (they don't care if they lose 15 pre, because to them it was worth a chance to do it to you). These types of players don't usually last too long, eventually they get caught for their stack and end up leaving with their tail between their legs and never come back.

Results.


Hero tanks for 45 seconds to a minute. Remembers the last time he tanked for over 30 seconds and bet and got CR AI on the river by a bluff after a V going check check check. My last hand history thread.


I check it back. Knew it was bad and immediately flip my cards over first expecting to be good. Like immediately after mking the play before knowing the results I knew. I am good. Villain is stunned I have a 7. Laughs at me and says he would have called a big river bet with his JJ. I believed him. He stuck around too long and he proved an hour later he indeed would have. He proceeded to donate 300bb to a rather loose gentleman on the other side of the table when V4 bet bet bet, got CR on the river with his straight on a board that paired on the turn. I had to put my head down as that hand went down because from playing with both it was obvious V4 was about to lose his whole stack, and yep. V4 was a humongous station, lost his whole stack.

CIE you kind of spelled out exactly why I need to bet this. I logically could not figure that out. Intuitively I knew I needed to bet at the time and again overthought it, kind of my achilles heel in big pots with somewhat complex river decisions. Illiterat I think you were the only one who ever mentioned his hand and it may have been the first post. Which the only thing I could fathom after seeing it was wow, this guy really thought I was tight. I was fairly shocked by his actual holding but it made sense once I factored in his image of me.

The guys who said check back the turn. I think that is a better line than the one I chose. I think CIEs overall gameplay was great and Im pretty sure everyone who gave advice played the hand better than I did. Its definitely better as an overlimp, but when my image gets tight, I have a pretty good streak of winning 100s of big blinds in spots like this so the EV probably runs pretty close for me. People rarely put me on anything but big pockets or AQ plus when I spend an hour or three getting 84o and mucking.


I guess my big takeaway is trust the initial feeling. Probably go smaller on the flop this multiway as mny pointed out especially with the aggressive guy next to act. CIE is right when he insta checks three streets when thats not his norm, its either the absolute nuts or some kind of draw or a hand he cant really ever raise.

I think the only teaching moment from the hand I have for anyone reading the thread is that when you make a play vs someone this loose that is this tightÂ….even though you were playing 57s. Your lowest stakes opponents now overfold to all of your big bets who saw the hand. I sat and broke even for the next two or three hours as opponents repeatedly made good folds to my turn and river bets. Your image is probably the second most important thing at the lowest stakes. My now nutpeddling image would have been great to start bluffing with, which I didnt do enough of in the aftermath.

I did not take it personally, he was a nice guy, like the guy at the party everyone is glad who is there and is fun to talk to and your girlfriend will sit and chat with for an hour and its cool. It was a friendly needle. But I think my preflop absolultely shocked him and he never really tried to go after me again. After you read my results post its kind of funny how true to the game you guys are calling this. It was less than an hour later. Tail between the legs. He did not seem like the type who would even consider never coming back though.

That's good, he ended up needling himself then lol. The check back was fine if you weren't comfortable calling a big c/r, and you got enough value after flopping trips with a weak kicker, these types of hands could often be over played when stacks are deep.

bummer but i respect the write up. i think a pretty good heuristic in general vs fish when you have value hands is just bet until you get raised and then figure it out. there's a ton of statistical evidence out there that river raises are way underbluffed and him bluffing the river here would actually be a really sophisticated play. you took an insanely strong line (bet into 5, bet turn, bet river) and i just dont think people are going to bluff into an uncapped range showing extreme stregnth as often as you seemed to think they will

i think people itt overreacted to the player description too where he seems looser than average but people are playing vs 86o which i dont think is all that reasonable of an assessment

the guy saying check back is ok because you got enough value and you can't bet if you're not going to call a xr i think is fairly misguided. missing river value bets is extremely costly because of the size of the pot and our opponents having 0 equity when they call and lose. granted we don't have 100% here as he's going to have TT some amount of the time and i guess 86dd and j8dd and a few slowplays but still. "enough" value doesn't exist. also his frequency for xring the river, particularly with hands that dont beat us, is probably something like 0-10% of the time, whereas your comment would imply a much higher number.