Quote:
Originally Posted by illiterat
I understand it has a lot more blockers to either flush/straight outs of villain ... and makes it so there's only a single 7 villain can have. However if villain has a 7, we are only in a slightly better spot than AA. Also we probably aren't playing 74, so this is currently our next best hand after AA range wise.
Also blocking V's value range means people tend to overvalue 75 vs. AA, or just be like "lol, trips is much better than an overpair". Like if villain range for raising turn is 90%:7x+ and 10% draws, it doesn't help us enough that he can have only 50% of the 7x hands from when we have AA.
The blockers matter a ton though… having a 7 blocker shifts Vs pair+ range from a mix of 9x/7x to dominant 9x with a sprinkling of 7x.
Just to make up some random numbers for sake of argument if we have AA after V check/calls flop we might be ahead versus 9x/pp around 50% of the time, facing a draw 25% of the time, and facing 7x 25% of the time.
Assuming those numbers are factual, it is true because of the blocking effects that if we have 75s after V check/calls flop we will be ahead versus 9x/pp around 57%, facing a draw 29%, and facing 7x just 14% of the time.
We went from a spot where V’s range composition for 9x:7x is a 2:1 ratio to a spot where range composition for 9x:7x is 4:1. That means we can value bet and not fear a check/raise as often, and correspondingly our value bets are far more profitable because we dominate more often.
Edit: After he raises we’re having a different conversation….but holding a blocker does shift him more towards bluffs, and more importantly in your example where his raising range has 90% value and 10% bluffs, then it does still decrease his raising frequency by about half. So even if he underbluffs with his x/r our 7 blocker definitely adds lots of EV to our betting line just because he doesn’t x/r as often…and when he does x/r we just bet/fold like we always do against uncreative opponents who underbluff (assuming that is our read)
Last edited by ChaosInEquilibrium; 09-12-2023 at 02:39 PM.