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Middle set facing huge overbet on wet board Middle set facing huge overbet on wet board

03-25-2012 , 06:42 PM
2-5NL game at Mohegan Sun.

Hero (MP, $725) just sat down 10 minutes ago, played one hand, where I felted a short stack with my AK vs his AQ on a A22 flop.

Villain 1 (BB $2,000+), is getting a massage and looks to be in his mid 20s, dressed casual but nice. No other reads on him.

Villain 2 (UTG+2) is older guy, $600 stack, not too important. No reads, but intuition tells me he's a tight older player.

Preflop: V2 open limps, followed by another limp. Hero limps with 66. Should I raise here or is limp-calling (assuming raise is not too big or from shortstack) to set mine ok? SB limps and V1 (BB) checks his option (pot $25).

Flop: 367. V1 checks, V2 bets $20, I raise to $75 (what do you think about the raise sizing?). V1 shoves shoves, V2 instafolds, Hero ????

Can I fold mid set here without any real reads on this V? What do you think V's range is here and how do I measure up to it? I'm not one to fold middle set, but on a board like this he's crushing me with 77 and 45. Not sure He would do this a flush draw either, though maybe he's super aggro with combo draws.
Middle set facing huge overbet on wet board Quote
03-25-2012 , 07:03 PM
I like how you played this hand. Overlimping is perfect for this hand, although raising is still profitable but higher variance. I think raising with 6-6 puts you in a lot of awkward spots, so I prefer just set-mining with it since there aren't many great flops for 6-6 and you can still get value in a limped pot if you flop a set. OTF raising is pretty much mandatory since the board is so wet, and your sizing is fine.

I only really see people overshove on wet boards because they don't want their nut hand to get drawn out on. I think his range really just consists of 5-4 a high % of the time since very few people 3-bet shove for 150BBs in a limped pot OTF w/o the nuts. Even if we assume he does this with some huge draws as well as sets, I'm still folding here since we only really have 3-3 crushed, and in all honestly, i doubt he's shoving 3-3 in this spot since you could have easily flopped the straight as well.
Middle set facing huge overbet on wet board Quote
03-25-2012 , 07:41 PM
He isnt crushing you with 54, he is just ahead. And if he ships with 77, he ships with 33. if his entire range were 77, 33, and 54, you would only hav 39% equity, and you need 44% equity for the call, which is about a 75 dollar error.

However, his range could unquestionably be higher than that. I mean, just as an example, what about 7d5d or 7d4d? I think he could also have Ad7d or random FD+SD hands like 4dJd or something.

You dont know his range. If you call, it might be a 75 dollar error, if you fold, it might be hundreds of dollars worth of error. I would call.
Middle set facing huge overbet on wet board Quote
03-25-2012 , 08:03 PM
I wouldn't even fold middle set to V2 on a 567 flop, never mind this flop vs V1.

You should be thrilled to get it in here. True, you're behind 45 and 77, but you're also way ahead of a ton of other hands: 33, 2P, FD+overs, SD, FD+SD. You're crushing everyone's range. This should be a fist-pump call.
Middle set facing huge overbet on wet board Quote
03-25-2012 , 09:10 PM
results???
Middle set facing huge overbet on wet board Quote
03-25-2012 , 09:38 PM
Anything but a call here is terrible. Even if he has you beat right now, you have outs.

The limp PF is fine, I like to raise it but it's a personal style/feel thing.

Your flop raise is a little big, I think $60 is more standard there.
Middle set facing huge overbet on wet board Quote
03-25-2012 , 09:44 PM
villain got $2000.. i'll call.. he got 2 pair imo
Middle set facing huge overbet on wet board Quote
03-25-2012 , 10:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FishFry1984
results???
I tanked for a minute or so, and called.

Spoiler:
V says "straight", just before the 7 hits on the turn. I'm pretty ecstatic until V flips over 45 eek:.
Middle set facing huge overbet on wet board Quote
03-25-2012 , 10:39 PM
I raise pre.

Call now but not loving it, it's a combo draw enough of the time that you can't ever fold.

If you had raised pre this wouldn't be a question because the pot would already be bloated, and 54o would be less likely to still be in the hand.
Middle set facing huge overbet on wet board Quote
03-25-2012 , 10:41 PM
haha, 4d5d, that sucks.
Middle set facing huge overbet on wet board Quote
03-25-2012 , 10:43 PM
Had BBJ equity. Pretty good spot to be in now.
Middle set facing huge overbet on wet board Quote
03-26-2012 , 08:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SABR42
Had BBJ equity. Pretty good spot to be in now.
Unfortunately Mohegan has a high hand jackpot and not BBJ =/
Middle set facing huge overbet on wet board Quote
03-27-2012 , 06:43 PM
Quick question: If I changed the fact pattern, and had V1 fold and V2 shove instead, how does that change things? I'd think that it would eliminate some of the two pair combos and weigh it more heavily towards sets?
Middle set facing huge overbet on wet board Quote
03-27-2012 , 07:03 PM
I'd raise PF but its not a huge deal to limp/call imo.

Normally I would be calling quickly. But guys who are getting massages tend to nut peddle quite a bit. I would probably still call it off. But I wouldn't be happy at all.
Middle set facing huge overbet on wet board Quote
03-27-2012 , 07:04 PM
Not significantly. Its a much easier call against an older guy who is pretty unlikely to have 45.
Middle set facing huge overbet on wet board Quote

      
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