The problem with raising or jamming here is that it turns our hand 100% face up. This is a play I don't like to make at all unless villain is a drooler who can't hand read and will never fold AA/KK. Villain doesn't seem like this type of player at all based on the K9 hand.

His 3 betting range is probably wide enough for us to be comfortably ahead. I could see QQ/Q9/AA/KK taking this line (a pfr w/ 33 in the spot he was in would be weird so not 100% sure about that hand). And JT is kind of the only combo draw he can have imo.

Contrary to what some of you may believe, I think calling is ballsier and more correct than shoving/raising. Shoving/raising is nothing more than level 1 thinking, "I has a set, I raise." But when you're this deep it gets a little more complicated. I've seen players fold bottom set in similar spots because the other player in the hand made it super obvious what he had by betting ridiculously too much. Our villain's calling range if you shove is going to be pretty thin this deep, probably only QQ and JT (and maybe 33 if he happens to have that) which we're not doing great against. Whereas calling gives him all of the rope he will need to go broke to you with his whole range.

"Scare cards," on the turn are not very relevant to us. They hit our range a lot more than they hit his range, I highly doubt he's going to go nuts without the nuts if a scare card hits. Assuming that his calling range otf is very thin, you will still get more value from him on scare cards than you would by raising him off of his hand otf. + if he has JT and the flush hits, he's almost certainly checking the turn anyway because we could have the A high flush. We just put ourselves in such a wayyyy better EV spot by seeing a turn, no matter what the turn card is, instead of just closing our eyes and jamming on the flop.

Obviously if a scare card doesn't hit - he will bet big, we will jam, I doubt he'll be able to find a fold, and our equity is 10x better than what it would have been had we jammed the flop.

If he has QQ, so be it. We lose no matter how we play this hand. Unless you have a soul read on him, there's not really anything we can do.

Agreed that flatting the reraise is the optimal line. You don't want him to hero fold KK+ (or possibly even Q9s) here. Only 20% chance a diamond comes on turn.

Gross spot. His reraise sizing seems nutty and scares me. But we lose to only 3 combos of QQ. He could have up to 3 combos of 33 (though he probably limps most of them if not all). He isos with K9 so he could have Q9s, JTdd, KTdd, T8dd. That's 4 combos total plus the possible combos of 33. There are 12 combos of KK+ though we don't know how often he reraises flop with those. The point is you can't really fold middle set here without a much better read that villain is that tight unless a diamond comes and he goes crazy.

Extremely sick spot. I'm almost never this deep so I can't offer much meaningful advice but I also can't see myself doing anything but getting it in

flat here imo.

also turning middle set into a bluff here is bad 500bb deep. He can easily find a fold here with AA-KK, 33, and Q9.

Flat, hope for non diamond turn and play poker.

It doesn't matter what hero does. Anyone with half a brain knows heros range is sets and SF/NFD if he calls flop.

Sick spot, but i think I'm getting it in otf, anything you do will look super strong. Who knows what villains skill level is and what he thinks he is raising for value.Flatting leaves all kind of bad turn cards, both from we're beat and killing our action perspective. I shove over the flop raise, mostly because I've never seen a villain at this level put in this much and fold.
P.S.
If you decide to fold, immediately rack up.

I disagree with the point that disco golf made about villains tendencies from the K9 hand. Just because he checked back otr with K9 does not mean he will not gii with AA/KK here. So often I see villains be super tight/passive in some spots and be super stations/make wierd raises in situations where it's obvious that they aren't good because they have no concept of relative hand strength.

The fact that he instantly said raise sucks though. Whenever a situation like that arises the villain always is nutted in his mind but because we don't know this villain at all we don't know how nutted his nutted is. Too often I see people overplaying their hands though. I still am never folding. The K9 open combined with the fact that he made it so small when he 3b on the flop makes me feel like he could show up with a wide enough range that makes shoving good. I can't remember the last time I saw someone make such a small raise on a wet board with top set oop deep like that. I am shoving otf.

this is a great thread, and it shows how different players can play this.

me, i am shoving. if you lose set over set, then you know what, that just sucks. it happens. but im shoving here so that, if it's anything other than QQ, he has to pay to win. pot controlling is not an option now imo. I don't see any way that, after this much action, you check the turn and river. just get it in. if he pays for the draw and hits it its AIDS but mathamatically you were right.

playing htis deep has its advantages and its negatives. this is one of the ****ty parts, but you gotta get it in here and hope the math works out in your favor

I'm not checking to pot control, it's to give him as much rope as possible with hands we beat. I could see shoving or calling and shoving turn.

OP, results plzzzzz

Grunch

My biggest problem w flatting is that there are a ton of terrible turn cards and V is an erratic player. I don't want to call and get outplayed when a scare card hits but realistically, I'm not folding regardless of the turn card, and if the money doesn't go in otf then it's going in ott
If V has QQ, im losing my stack.
I think I flat, hope for a black deuce and gii on the turn. If I jam the flop, V calls all draws. If I jam the turn, his odds are a lot worse.

If you gii regardless of the turn card then this isn't giving him worse odds on a draw as you go all in regardless of whether he already hit or not

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A 1/2 and home game (0.25/.50) player chiming in.

My first wrong thought... the money matters. I'm not comfortable shipping that kind of money around with an advantage, I want to take down the pot. I'm shoving and sick if I've run middle set into top set.



At the home game, I'm considering if I can find a fold to a scare card, and if V will bet the scare card even if that's not their draw. I'll try to get more money in, before scare cards hit and perhaps the action dries up. I think I'm clicking it back, and planning to gii soon.

I think most people are eager to gii here, the question is how do we extract the most value based on what V could have and do we gii OTF or OTT.

If Villain has AA-KK and we think V will fold if we 4bet then flatting is fine. Unfortunately if one of the 15 scar cards for the str8 or flush come OTT then AA-KK probably won't put anymore money in the pot anyway.

If villain has a 12-15 outer or Q9, 33, QQ....then I think we should 4bet all in OTF.

After the villain 3bets to $750, the hero has to call $450 to win $1,260 almost 3:1. If Hero calls the $450, the pot will be $1,710 and eff stacks will be $2,020.

If hero 4bets allin OFT, villain will have to call $2,020 to win $3,700 pot. Just over a PSB 1.8:1.

I know that a 4bet all in turns hero's hand face up, BUT I think flatting also looks strong. Most players like to take take advantage of fold equity with big draws, so a 4bet allin could be perceived as a semi bluff.

I'd 4bet gii OTF!

Sick spot. I gii. Too many scare cards can slow action on the turn.

A min click looks super strong compared to an all in. I would ship it to rep a flush draw.

If he folds I'm fine with that, with the result of having won 185bb.

If he calls great. If he has QQ, it's a cooler.

If it's a dry board I'm flatting here all day long.

And result?

+1

I just jam and let villain level himself.

i'm all in

I agree with WJ94 and others that flatting on the flop will not keep AA and KK in any more than raising will. Unless you have some crazy dynamics w this guy your range for calling his flop 3bet is not balanced vs overpairs at all. Even on a totally blank turn you still have way more hands that are crushing him than draws.

Results
In game, I ended up shipping the the flop, because I deceided that I'm getting stacked by QQ no matter how it runs out.and that because I don't know much about him except he did open the K9 hand, so I feel he can have a lot of combo draws and made hands. I'm not really sure what cards I'm trying to fade.
As soon as I moved in he asked how much more for him to call, he took about a min and then folded.
After the hand though I think it's the wrong play, I think I should be fliatting here. I feel like his flop raise is more bluffs than value hands, and should let him barrel off on the turn. I think most people here would probably just flat the flop raise with AA and KK, and if he dose have diamonds I don't think he would raise here and give me a chance to shut him out of the pot, unless it's exacty J10dd or maybe AKdd.
But I'm still tossed up about this one because there so many turn card that can kill the action even if they don't beat my hand. It's just so hard to know the right play with such limited info. If he was there for a while I would feel a lot better about what ever decision I came to, but it's not often that I'm playing pots this deep again a player I know nothing about.

most of the people in LLSNL do not fit this category imo.

You won like $950 uncontested, that's not a bad result. V probably can't fold JTdd or NFD given pot odds when you shove. If you were the one with JTdd/NFD here I would be making the same play since you have some FE and can't be worse than 30%

I don't think winning 950 uncontested is a bad result, I just feel like l let money on the table.

For all you know V just gives up on turn if you flat anyway. He's repping an ultra narrow range by 3b flop and his snap reraise probably means he had a weak hand or air and thought you would fold everything but super nutted hands.

I think he could have 3B/F an overpair on the flop knowing you're so deep that he'd rather just figure out if he's beat now instead of playing 2 more streets w a huge pot OOP and having to guess if you had a set or were on a monster draw. He's not doing well against either of those.

I think flatting is best too but I don't know whether i could do it in game.