No, it's not for value. There aren't many worse hands calling you and while the board is wet and draws are dangerous, you re HU, so it's not like villain has to have a club flush draw.

Moreover, I ve been to Maryland Live. 25 VPIP is the bottom of most villain's preflop range with a ton of them limping 40 and 50%.

Having said that, I am ambivalent about whether the bet is justified. May be the bet is justified in order to take the pot down right there as a bluff.

As far as the river bet and not knowing the player it's tough to gauge what it means. If he's a somewhat competent player, he's overbetting because he's got a set that became a full house and wants to get value of your K. Or he's overbetting in order to make you fold.

But if he's bad, he might as well spazzing out with his Kx not understanding that this is not a good bet to get a call from you.

If it's the former kind of player, I think it's a call, because he probably has more bluffs than value there. If it's the latter, it's a fold.

Since I am a bit of a calling station, I might call and get pissed off about the way villain play his hand. But hey, it's $100 worth of free information!!!

Flop is not a bet for value if he gets aggressive with his draw at some point in the hand and we fold. Like in this hand for example we're pretty indifferent to calling river so the value we got from FDs on the flop is lost when we pay off Kx on the river or lost when FDs bluff us out on the river. Or if he c/r flop with FDs which will happen somewhat often on this board and we fold to the c/r then we never got value from FDs, we actually put money in the pot with a hand that had good equity and then folded which is a disaster.

This.

Check flop.

This is polarized alright, however overall I believe this to be -EV to call without any knowledge of the villain.

In an ordinary lineup I could chk flop fold turn quite often. More than half the time the villains will show up with about what it appears they have when this happens and I expect straightforward play from his player stereotype.

only better Jx are QJ/AJ, if you discount bc of the limp/call pre, i think the benefits from folding better Jx are negligible, and thats assuming he would fold QJ ott after it picks up a gutter

after V c/c flop he cant really have T8, and QT has improved to the nuts, so the only straight draws are p+gutters, of which we are only ahead of T9 (and if you believe QJ will fold, it is inconsistent to think you can get value from T9)

i do, however, think it's reasonable to bet the turn here to prevent fd's from realizing their equity for free because now that he has c/c the flop, a much larger proportion of his range will be made of flush draws which we dont want to check back against. of course, there may be greater value in checking back and bluffcatching the river (or even value betting). i prefer the latter since we are in position and i think rivers will be pretty easy to play in general

^ What air hands are you setting up a double barrel with on this flop? I guess something like AQ would be the nut hand to do it with. AT maybe? Any AQ probably?

Preflop is bad unless you think JTs is ahead of the Villain's UTG+1 limping and UTG+1 limp/call ranges. It is spewy to iso-raise JTs over short-stacked EP limpers who have tight limping and/or tight limp/calling ranges from up front. I prefer over-limping JTs here because Villain seems to be semi-tight or even tight given the fact that you haven't noticed him playing any hands yet in the 30 minutes so far. Iso-raising JTs in CO over an EP limper who hasn't played a hand for 30 minutes is pretty bad...

Flop is close. C-betting versus checking back depends on Villain's tendencies. Given that Villain is a random to you, either is fine.

Turn is close. If you were going to take a pot control line of bet flop and check back turn, why wouldn't you just check back the flop to bet turn instead (I think check back flop and bet turn > bet flop and check back turn).

River is a fold against a random who hasn't played a hand in last 30 minutes. Most likely, he will show down QT if you call here.

I think pre and flop are fine. Checking the turn is fine if you intend to fold any river where you do not improve. You have not bloated the pot with a marginal hand, good pot control. You have an easy fold on the river as there will be much better spots to come and you do want to avoid playing the guessing game here. You could be calling to chop as the paired K increased the value of any J he is holding. Unless he is bluffing, I can't see what you are beating here

Bet turn , as played I def fold without solid read