Sunday noon 2/5 full game at MD Live.

Many of the stacks are $200/$300 and I haven't seen anyone doing anything crazy. Very passive game thus far with lots of limps.

Hero: Mid 30's white dude. Been sitting for about 30 minutes and only played one hand were I raised to $15 in mid position with AQs, got two callers in the blinds who both folded to a continuation bet. Stack $510.

Villain: Mid 30's black dude with headphones in. Haven't seen him play a hand yet and haven't played with him before. Stack $300.

Villain limps UTG+1
Hero in CO with JT raises to $20.

-- I want the button and position, and with the dead money passive blinds, a little fold equity, and a good hand, a raise is a little better than limping along. I'm fine here.

Blinds fold.

Villain calls. His range should be very wide (little pairs, suited connectors, 1 gapers, 2 gapers, suited cards...). I'm also thinking that he's capable of doing funky stuff and probably not great, since limp/calling out of position against 1 opponent is pretty funky.

Minus the rake, lets call it $40 for in-game math sake.

Flop KJ4

Villain checks. Hero bets $25.

-- I'm continuation betting against 1 funky opponent in position just about 100% of the time. It's nice that I flopped middle pair.

Villain calls.

-- Hmmmm. My first thoughts were villain is on a club draw. Maybe QT (feels like a limp/call pre-hand), possibly a stubborn 45, 43. Maybe JT, J9, QJ. I'm discounting a king since limp/calling AK, KQ, KJ, KT from early is just weird/bad. Still possible though, especially because I don't know the villain.

$90 pot. Turn 9

Villain checks.
Hero checks.

-- QT and J9 just got there. Also, I have show down value and a new gut-shot draw. Betting seems a bit spewy here vs. an unknown.

$90 pot. River K

Villain bets $100 pretty quickly and sits there motionless, staring forward.

-- Some of the thoughts that push me towards a call are:

(a) that's such a good bluff card for villain after I check the turn.
(b) clubs didn't get there

-- Some thoughts pushing me toward a fold:

(a) damn, that's a big bet....and I'm confused.

-- Raising is spewy for obvious reasons that we don't get better hands to fold and we don't get called by worse.

I'll wait to post results, but interested on the line and your thoughts....

You goofed by not betting the turn you can both value bet vs draws and bluff vs better made hands(AJ) that are ready to give up. Like I just posted in another thread, I use my live tells here. Seems like a bluff, and the pot is small. I'd probably call.

I don't agree that we discount the number of K's in his range. With his stack size, I expect him wanting to see alot of cheap flops with hands like KJ, KQ, KT, maybe not AK, but possibly even K9 or Kx suited based on your reads.

We'd know alot more if you bet the turn. Your hand is just ok. You haven't narrowed V' range much since the hand started. It's close but I'd probably fold and see how this line matches up with V's tendencies as the session progresses.

The part about continuation betting 100% of the time is a mental leak. Your decisions should always be looking to exploit V's tendencies.

I prefer turning our hand into a bluff with our blockers to KJ so on this board I like a triple barrel. As played it's probably a fold. Too many Kx and QT combos compared to flush draw combos.

How is it a leak to continuation bet close to 100% of the time in position against one probably not great opponent?

That's pretty standard winning poker.

Has V been sitting at the table with you for the whole 30 minutes? If so, and if you haven't seen him play a hand yet, that suggests that he's pretty tight pre-flop, and your range for him pre-flop is too broad. If he'd limp-call with SCs, one-gappers, two-gappers, etc., you'd have probably seen him in a hand already. When tight players limp-call, I assume they have a medium or low pocket pair, below 9 or 10, or maybe suited broadway/suited aces. Against that range, there aren't a lot of non-kings/non-sets that continue against your c-bet, except maybe pocket pairs between Jacks and 4s. Given all that, I probably fold the river. No reason to believe he's bluffing here, and he's played it like he flopped a good hand (set of 4s, K, including KJ), checked because he thought we'd C-bet, checked the turn because he wanted us to continue our aggression and is now raising river to get value.

Well in this hand for example if V is spewy and bluffy there's probably more value in checking back and letting him bluff.

He's not bluffing he just has A king here so much of the time. He's just pot controlling all the way and now betting big hoping you'll think it's a bluff

I'm ok with the raise assuming there is not a strong/good opponent behind us. I am not sure what V's range is, but we may be able to make a case that our raise is for (thin) value. Plus, yeah, we have position and what not. I really do want it to be heads up though.

OTF are you betting as a bluff? You make it sound like that. If it is for value what range of hands do you expect to call you?

OTT you say QT and J9 just got there... Does he l/c in EP with those hands? Most passive V's limps in EP and raise calls are hands like small/med pp's, Axs, big broadways... Not saying he wouldn't try to limp a J9 hand, but would he call a raise with that hand? If not then you can probably go ahead and bet the turn for value.

Please hold off on results for a couple of days.

I agree with SpexDome here that we cannot remove Kx combos from this players range given the pre-flop and flop action. Just because it's bad/not optimal doesn't mean players won't do it. You say that he would limp call with all Jx combo's but not Kx? Doesn't compute.. I would think that this is a standard line for your average fish with a hand like KQ-K9 or even worse. Given the player description, I wouldn't put it past him to show up with K2s here.

@ Daniel9861...

Why would we bet the river here (assuming we double and get called)? Our hand has showdown value and I doubt Villain ever folds better. I also think that betting the turn is borderline. Sure we protect our hand against flush and straight draws, but we almost never get Kx to fold, and Jx with a better kicker probably calls too (QJ got a straight draw too). All things considered I would probably check the turn and try to dodge clubs.

As played, I would fold. Too much Kx, QT, and slow played boats and what not to make a call here without reads. If you see him over bet the pot as a bluff in the future, take notes and call in this spot next time.

FWIW I would probably try to goad him into giving me some info on his hand before/during/after my fold to find out what this bet type means.

Oh, I also think the flop bet is standard. Villains range is likely wide, and the board is draw heavy. I don't like giving a free card here when we have what is most likely the best hand against Villains wide range.

I meant on blank rivers, obv not this river.

The flop bet is for value with 2nd pair.

I don't think the flop needs discussion -- not betting the flop and giving a free card on a draw heavy board after taking the initiative is a large and obvious mistake.

I disagree. It depends on what V's range is and V is capable of. I feel like you are targeting one part of his range and ignoring the rest of it. I am not saying cbetting is bad, just saying we need to do it for the right reasons.

I did not remove Kx from the range. Here's a quote from my OP:

"Still possible <that he has a king> though, especially because I don't know the villain."

@APD

You mention that you are ok with opening JTs here only if there's not a strong player behind us. Are you implying that opening JTs in the CO is not something that you'd do close to 100% of the time with only 1 limper? Or are just wanting extra clarification that there's not a strong TAG who covers us on the button who might 3bet us and make life difficult?

And if there is (why the hell are we sitting here and not getting a seat change) are you suggesting that we should just pitch it? Seems way too good to be pitching it with only 1 limper in the pot.


@OP: I think the raise pre is fine, and pretty standard.
It's hard to flop a pair yo. And there are likely some small SC's, and suited aces in his range that we can get value from. And there's always the "I don't believe you, I'm going to call you with my PP 55 - TT" factor. So, yeah, bet. Of course sometimes we are losing, but if we are only ever getting called by worse, we are likely not value betting thinly enough.

On the turn, I'd bet the turn for the same reasons. Still getting value out of the same range. It also sets us up for him to check the river, and we can check back or value bet depending on the river. And we picked up some extra equity with our new shiny gut shot.

I'd puke fold the river.

check flop, as played call river

against a relatively unknown villain, which u say this villaim is, i play it the same as you and as for the river i fold

until i have some reads to KNOW they have a decent sized bluffing range in this spot, i am going to lean on the tight side and range them larger towards value.

the fact of the matter is this is a perfect spot to bluff for villain and you just have to decide whether you think they are bluffing or not and act accordingly

I'm really trying to get OP (and others) to think about the reasons they are taking actions and to be aware of who is around them. And yes, a good opponent or two will make our life suck if they can hand read at all. I mean JTs here is pretty close to the nuts, but let's make sure we have a good reason and a clear plan.

Ah.

Can you explain this please?

he isnt folding better or calling with worse other than flush draws, we can strengthen our check back range and play later streets in position pretty easily with good visibility, we block KJ making it easier to bluffcatch on good runouts. these things make me believe it will play better as part of our flop x/b range instead of betting. also as a general exploitative point, i think that people often play poorly against a pfr who x/b the flop and will stab with no equity more often than they should (probably under the assumption that no one bothers to check back any decent hands)

river i actually think is close, but id lean towards calling because people tend to think this is a good bluff card (its not) and are more likely to overbluff in a spot like this. think about it this way, if hero never checks back the turn with Kx (not that this is correct), then on a brick river Kx is strong enough for V to valuebet. the fact that Kx improved to trips is essentially meaningless, so we would prefer (as villain) to bluff a river where more Kx value combos are available to us. many people dont realize this and believe it strengthens their value range (they might not explicitly think this, but that is why people think this is a good bluff spot imo)

thats the general gist of my thoughts, i may have left some stuff out im in a rush

The flop is a clear bet.

There are lots of flush draws in his range, add to that J9s, J8s, 43s, 45s and it's a clear bet for value.

Getting a fold is ok too, especially to hands that have outs (which are tons).

Giving a free card and giving up initiative is not good in this spot. The guy is an unknown and stoic -- making reads is going to be difficult if he starts donking any turn after we check.

An ace on the turn and he donks -- what are we going to do?
A queen on the turn and he donks -- what are we going to do?
The flush hits on the turn and he donks -- what are we going to do?
Any card hits on the turn and he donks -- what are we going to do?

The answer: play a guessing game.

The flop is clearly a bet in this spot, and its for value. And for balance. And for image. As well as makes the hand easier to play by narrowing his range if he calls/raises.

Can we talk about turn/river?

You have no reads on V he bets out pot on the rvr... I def fold 2nd pr and don't worry about it at all...

Sry he showed u a bluff.

Also u took Kx out of ur range entirely when u ckd turn...

Jvds, isn't there merit to turning our hand into a double barrel to fold out better Jx and get value from straight draws and flush draws or is that too thin because of the Jx blocker?